Rightways to Success: Interest rate

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Thursday, 18 May 2023

Money in housing, cautious optimism in industry

PETALING JAYA: The property market is expected to remain cautiously optimistic in 2023, with the gradual increase in the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) since last year likely to affect market activity, particularly on residential demand, says the Valuation and Property Services Department.

The outlook of the workforce in the construction sector and the increase in the price of building materials will also affect supply.

Department director-general Abdul Razak Yusak said internal and external factors, such as economic and financial developments both globally and in the country, would also have an impact on the real estate sector and the sentiment of industry players.

“Looking at the national economy which is projected to grow by 4% to 5% in 2023, supported by continued resilient domestic growth prospects, the property market is expected to remain cautiously optimistic in 2023,” he said.The first quarter of this year alone saw over 89,000 transactions worth RM42.31bil, which was higher than those recorded in pre-pandemic years, he said.

“The seasonal factor in house purchases, which is usually low at the beginning of the year, the increase in OPR and the decline in Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) are among the factors that contributed to a decline in residential market activity in particular,” he said.

New residential launches, said Abdul Razak, were also indicating a cautious sentiment among developers, with the number recorded at nearly 4,700 units, which was less than those in previous years, while sales performance was moderate at 25.7%.

The decrease in new launches was in line with the decrease in the number of developers’ licences and advertising and sales permits of new housing sales and renewals approved by the Local Government Development Ministry from 5,641 in January and February last year to 2,911 during the same period this year, he added.

Johor recorded the highest number of new launches at 2,077 units or about 45% of the nationwide total with a sales performance of 24.9% while Selangor had the second highest at 791 units or 17% share with a sales performance of 37%.

Abdul Razak said in line with the cautious sentiment among developers, construction activity had slowed down in the first quarter of 2023.

“This is seen as a positive development to balance the unsold supply in the market,” he said, adding that the residential and serviced apartment overhang status continued to be positive.

“The number of overhang units has decreased to 26,872 units worth RM18.31bil in the first quarter of 2023 as a result of market absorption in all states, except Selangor. The volume and value of residential overhang decreased by 3.2% and 0.5% respectively compared with the fourth quarter of 2022,” he said.

Selangor recorded the highest number and value of overhang units, with 4,995 units worth RM4.47bil, followed by Johor at 4,759 units worth RM3.94bil, Kuala Lumpur with 3,423 units worth RM3.13bil, and Penang with 3,138 units worth RM2.48bil.

The purpose-built office (private) and shopping complex segment in Kuala Lumpur and Selangor, said Abdul Razak, should be given attention as there was a surplus of space, which was also expected to be severely affected by the inflow of new supply this year.This is as Kuala Lumpur recorded the highest available private purpose-built office space at 2.53 million square metres involving 290 buildings, followed by Selangor with 1.40 million square metres involving 192 buildings.

For the shopping complex segment, Selangor recorded the highest available retail space nationwide at 0.79 million square metres with 146 buildings followed by Kuala Lumpur at 0.56 million square metres with 97 buildings.

“Developers need to be more thorough and cautious before planning any new development and local authorities need to evaluate in detail before approving each new project,” said Abdul Razak.

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Brighter outlook for the housing sector

Tuesday, 10 January 2023

Interest and inflation rates, how high is high?

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AS we welcome 2023, one of the central themes this year will be how high will interest rates rise after the relentless pursuit taken by global central banks in fighting inflation with persistent and measured rate hikes in 2022.

As can be seen from Chart 1, from the 75 basis points (bps) hike by the Bank of Thailand to the 425 bps hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the year 2022 has certainly been a busy year for central banks.

Central banks had no choice but to raise rates to fend off inflationary pressure that has been persistent throughout the year, although there have been some signs of easing lately.

Not to be left behind, even the Bank of Japan, while not lifting key benchmark rate, allowed its 10-year Japanese government bonds to move 50 bps from its 0% target, instead of 25 bps earlier.

It is a move that is seen recognising that inflation is finally biting the Japanese too.

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Chart 2 shows that based on November 2022 statistics, the depositors are at the losing end as the 12-month deposit rate was 132 bps lower than the monthly inflation print of 4%.

Can inflation be tamed?

Reading inflationary pressures and forecasting where it is going is not an easy task especially when inflation prints itself is a combination of many factors and not just commodity prices and supply chain disruption that has been the core issues among central banks the past year. Although the global economic momentum has eased, global aggregate demand is still rising and much higher than it was before the pandemic.

Hence, there has been not only a persistent rise in consumer demand but one that is not matched by consistent supply provided in the marketplace, resulting in a hike in aggregate prices.

In theory, inflation is tamed by using monetary tightening measures as it is believed that by raising interest rates, consumers and businesses will be impacted by higher borrowing costs, resulting in lower consumption as well as a slower pace of investments, which in turn will reduce aggregate demand.

Nevertheless, rate hikes have also other consequential impacts on the economy in the form of a weaker or a stronger currency, depending on the relative increase in domestic rates vis-à-vis the comparative increase in other corresponding currencies.

For example, for the United States, the relentless increase by the Fed has caused a significant rally in the US Dollar Index, which rose to a high of US$114 (RM501) last year, up almost 20%, before easing to close the year at US$103 (RM454), down 9.3% from its peak, but still higher by more than 8%.

The surge in the dollar made US imports cheaper from the rest of the world, in particular those from China, even cheaper, which allows the US retail prices at the store to be relatively lower than they used to be before the rally in the dollar.

In essence, while the surge in US interest rates has reduced disposable income due to higher borrowing costs, which in turn lowered consumer demand, it has also caused imported end product prices to be relatively cheaper than before, allowing aggregate prices to be lower as well.

This suggests that US consumer products are in for a double-whammy in terms of prices as aggregate demand has been reduced due to lower disposable income and at the same time for products that are imported, prices too have eased due to the strength of the greenback.

For an economist, this is good news as the intended outcome will likely be achieved in taming inflationary pressure due to persistent hikes in interest rates. A look at inflation prints from the peaks in 2022, both the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE) have eased, falling by 67 bps and 62 bps from the highs and were last seen at 6% and 4.7% respectively.

Are we there yet?

After a 425 bps hike, the Fed’s message in the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released this week was an important one as it guided the market to expect higher rates going into 2023 but at the same time also signalled that the war against inflation is far from over and the Fed will continue to raise rates until it can achieve its targeted inflation print.

Compared with its September forecast of 4.6%, the Fed has now raised its median Fed Fund Rate (FFR) for 2023 to 5.1%, an increase of 50 bps while at the same time, the Fed also expects median FFR to drop by 100 bps each in 2024 and 2025 to 4.1% and 3.1% from earlier projected rate of 3.9% and 2.9% respectively.

Core PCE inflation, which is the Fed’s benchmark rate for inflationary pressure, is now expected to hit a median rate of 4.8% in 2022 before easing to 3.5% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024 respectively.

By all means, the Fed is forecasting that inflation will be tamed in time to come. Hence, in all likelihood, we have seen the peak in inflationary pressure but perhaps we will be in for a higher US rate for longer before we see the Fed’s pivot.

Contrary to market expectations, the FOMC minutes this week revealed that the Fed is not expected to cut rates in 2023.

As for the market, based on Fed Fund Futures the Fed is expected to raise the FFR by 25 bps each over the next three meetings to reach 5.00% and 5.25%, followed by two rate cuts of 25 bps each in the second half of 2023, bringing the FFR back to 4.5% and 4.75% at the end of 2023.

Bank Negara to stand pat?

Compared to many central banks in the region or globally, Bank Negara move to raise the benchmark Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 100 bps last year is seen as rather muted.

Based on the year-to-date core CPI of 2.9% up to November 2022, the inflationary pressure experienced by Malaysia remained within Bank Negara’s forecast of between 2% and 3% for the year and going into 2023, core inflation prints will remain elevated at the beginning of the year but may ease later on, especially with the current government’s efforts in reducing the cost of living.

Given that scenario and the likelihood that the Fed and other regional central banks too are almost done raising rates, Bank Negara may stand pat and leave the OPR unchanged for 2023 at 2.75%. After all, a higher rate of between 25 bps to 50 bps as predicted by many broking firms will only result in higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, a move that will likely accelerate the pace of economic slowdown in 2023. By leaving the OPR unchanged, Bank Negara is signalling that it is done with raising rates and the current rate remains commodative and supportive of economic growth.

Positive real returns?

One of the arguments for higher interest rates is whether depositors are getting positive real returns, which is the difference between fixed deposit rates and inflation prints.

Chart 2 shows that based on November 2022 statistics, the depositors are at the losing end as the 12-month deposit rate was 132 bps lower than the monthly inflation print of 4%.

However, interestingly, as the market is anticipating rate hikes of 25 bps in the January 2023 Monetary Policy Committee meeting and another hike in March 2023, 12-month fixed deposit rates of many banks have passed the 3% mark and depositors could even easily enjoy rates up to 4% as promotional activities to attract fresh deposits have intensified over the past month. With that, depositors are already getting returns close to the headline monthly inflation prints.

In conclusion, while it makes sense for Bank Negara to stand pat and not raise rates in its first two meetings this year as widely expected, the market has already priced in the scenario that the central bank is ready to raise rates by 50 bps to take the benchmark OPR to 3.25%, the level last seen in March 2019, almost four years ago.

Pankaj C Kumar Pankaj C. Kumar is a long-time investment analyst. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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Saturday, 7 January 2023

Interest and inflation rates, how high is high?

CLICK TO ENLARGE

Central banks had no choice but to raise rates to fend off inflationary pressure that has been persistent throughout the year, although there have been some signs of easing lately.

Not to be left behind, even the Bank of Japan, while not lifting key benchmark rate, allowed its 10-year Japanese government bonds to move 50 bps from its 0% target, instead of 25 bps earlier.

It is a move that is seen recognising that inflation is finally biting the Japanese too.

CLICK TO ENLARGE

Chart 2 shows that based on November 2022 statistics, the depositors are at the losing end as the 12-month deposit rate was 132 bps lower than the monthly inflation print of 4%.