Rightways to Success: Bank Negara

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Friday, 12 May 2023

Gold reserves on uptrend

Why Gold Still Shines Through Inflation, Banking Crises and More | WSJ

Storage of bullion seen as key in inflation fight. Gold likely to perform better than the US$

PETALING JAYA: Asian central banks, including Bank Negara, were seen upping their gold reserves in the past decade given the versatile use of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation and, a protective measure against purchasing power risks.

Malaysia has emerged as having the fifth-highest increase in gold reserves between 2013 and 2022 among Asian countries, said Singapore-based brokerage firm City Index, which released the data yesterday.

The brokerage noted that Bank Negara has overseen a 6.84% increase in the country’s gold reserves, from 36.4 tonnes to 38.88 tonnes over the period under review.

This is 90% more than Indonesia, whose gold reserves only increased by 0.64% between 2013 to 2022

However, the republic continues to hold 50% more gold than Malaysia with 78.57 tonnes.

The increase in Malaysia’s gold reserves also paled in comparison to third-placed Singapore’s 20.7% climb in bullion stock at 153.7 tonnes, which itself is dwarfed by China’s near-doubling of its storage of gold to 2,010 tonnes, taking the top spot among Asian nations.

“Gold reserves in China averaged 1,694.78 tonnes from 2013 until 2021, reaching an all-time high of 2,010.51 tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2022, accounting for 3.6% of its total foreign reserves,” City Index pointed out.

Notably, the brokerage firm said China’s increase in gold imports is largely considered to be the result of an effort to reduce its reliance on the US dollar and to diversify holdings of the People’s Bank of China.

According to City Index head of market research Matt Weller, the surge in gold investment demand signals a growing concern among investors regarding the inflationary pressures in the market.

“As central banks continue to use gold as an inflation hedge, it’s not surprising to see individual investors following suit in the form of coins or jewellery, especially in countries such as India and China, where gold has long been considered a traditional store of value,” he said.

Meanwhile, the brokerage firm said Thailand has had the second-largest increase in gold reserves in the last decade, increasing by 60.2% from 152.4 tonnes to 244.1 tonnes.

Quoting the World Gold Council, City Index said gold remains a popular and effective inflation hedge amid global economic uncertainty in Thailand, exemplified by a 40% increase in demand for the metal year-on-year in 2022, fuelled by the rebound in tourism.

The debate, though, continues on whether gold could live up to its reputation as a buffer against inflation compared to other means employed to stem the inflationary tide, namely bonds, the greenback, and much more recently, cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin.

This is evidenced by the price of gold taking a beating from mid 2022, coinciding with the Federal Reserve’s 50-basis-point hike in May which was followed by four giant 75-basis-point surges, sending gold price from approximately US$1,800 (RM8,032) an ounce to just over US$1,600 (RM7,140) by November as the US dollar strengthened.

Meanwhile, Bernard Aw and Eve Barre, economists at Singapore-based Coface Services South Asia-Pacific Pte Ltd, pointed out that the relationship between the dollar and gold tends to be inverse, although this negative correlation has weakened since 2018.

“Although there is an easing trend, inflation rates are expected to be above historical trend at least through 2023, while global growth remains sub-par. Gold may therefore perform well relative to the dollar since the United States rate hike cycle appears to be nearing its peak.

“Moreover, geopolitical factors have also contributed to emerging market central banks stocking up on gold reserves, pushing up demand for gold, amid a very gradual shift away from the US dollar,” they told StarBiz.

Concurrently, chief executive of Centre for Market Education Dr Carmelo Ferlito also believes the decision to increase gold reserves among Asian countries may be seen as a signal of worry among these countries, and their consideration of the dollar as a less dominant currency in the future.

“Thus, despite the decrease in its price last year, gold is perceived as a more stable store of value,” he said.

Ferlito opined that the cessation of the gold standard has been the biggest source of inflation in history, as inflation in the last 50 years have exceeded any before it.

“In fact, currently measuring inflation through the Consumer Price Index is meaningless with the fiat system. A more effective way would probably be to measure price indices against wage indices,” he said.

With Asian central banks embarking to fortify their bullion stockpile in an apparent effort to mitigate inflation, Ferlito said returning to the gold standard would be ideal but practically impossible at this point in time, as the quantity of money in circulation is exceedingly high.

“Free banking and competition among currencies may be a better option for the current financial climate,” he added.

Coface’s Aw and Barre too did not advocate a return to the gold standard, believing the system will deeply restrain the ability of governments to support economic activity when needed since money supply would be limited to the amount of gold detained.

They said: “Considering the way central banks acted during the last two economic crises by expanding their policy instruments, as well as the massive fiscal support provided by governments during the lockdowns, it is difficult to imagine a return to the gold standard, which would imply the end of this important interventionism.”

Providing an interesting balance to the gold against inflation idea, Forbes in an article published earlier this month reported that gold has at times in history been found wanting as an inflation hedge.

“From 1980 to 1984, annual (US) inflation averaged 6.5%, but gold prices fell 10% on average each year. Returns not only fell short of the inflation rate, but they also underperformed real estate, commodities and the S&P 500. Annual inflation averaged about 4.6% from 1988 to 1991, but gold prices fell approximately 7.6% a year on average,” the report revealed.

On the other hand, while concluding that gold has been an inconsistent inflation hedge, Forbes recommended holding some amount of the precious metal as a diversification strategy.

“Gold has historically had a low or even negative correlation to both stocks and bonds, suggesting it offers value as a tool of diversification,” it said.

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Tuesday, 10 January 2023

Interest and inflation rates, how high is high?

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AS we welcome 2023, one of the central themes this year will be how high will interest rates rise after the relentless pursuit taken by global central banks in fighting inflation with persistent and measured rate hikes in 2022.

As can be seen from Chart 1, from the 75 basis points (bps) hike by the Bank of Thailand to the 425 bps hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the year 2022 has certainly been a busy year for central banks.

Central banks had no choice but to raise rates to fend off inflationary pressure that has been persistent throughout the year, although there have been some signs of easing lately.

Not to be left behind, even the Bank of Japan, while not lifting key benchmark rate, allowed its 10-year Japanese government bonds to move 50 bps from its 0% target, instead of 25 bps earlier.

It is a move that is seen recognising that inflation is finally biting the Japanese too.

CLICK TO ENLARGE

Chart 2 shows that based on November 2022 statistics, the depositors are at the losing end as the 12-month deposit rate was 132 bps lower than the monthly inflation print of 4%.

Can inflation be tamed?

Reading inflationary pressures and forecasting where it is going is not an easy task especially when inflation prints itself is a combination of many factors and not just commodity prices and supply chain disruption that has been the core issues among central banks the past year. Although the global economic momentum has eased, global aggregate demand is still rising and much higher than it was before the pandemic.

Hence, there has been not only a persistent rise in consumer demand but one that is not matched by consistent supply provided in the marketplace, resulting in a hike in aggregate prices.

In theory, inflation is tamed by using monetary tightening measures as it is believed that by raising interest rates, consumers and businesses will be impacted by higher borrowing costs, resulting in lower consumption as well as a slower pace of investments, which in turn will reduce aggregate demand.

Nevertheless, rate hikes have also other consequential impacts on the economy in the form of a weaker or a stronger currency, depending on the relative increase in domestic rates vis-à-vis the comparative increase in other corresponding currencies.

For example, for the United States, the relentless increase by the Fed has caused a significant rally in the US Dollar Index, which rose to a high of US$114 (RM501) last year, up almost 20%, before easing to close the year at US$103 (RM454), down 9.3% from its peak, but still higher by more than 8%.

The surge in the dollar made US imports cheaper from the rest of the world, in particular those from China, even cheaper, which allows the US retail prices at the store to be relatively lower than they used to be before the rally in the dollar.

In essence, while the surge in US interest rates has reduced disposable income due to higher borrowing costs, which in turn lowered consumer demand, it has also caused imported end product prices to be relatively cheaper than before, allowing aggregate prices to be lower as well.

This suggests that US consumer products are in for a double-whammy in terms of prices as aggregate demand has been reduced due to lower disposable income and at the same time for products that are imported, prices too have eased due to the strength of the greenback.

For an economist, this is good news as the intended outcome will likely be achieved in taming inflationary pressure due to persistent hikes in interest rates. A look at inflation prints from the peaks in 2022, both the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE) have eased, falling by 67 bps and 62 bps from the highs and were last seen at 6% and 4.7% respectively.

Are we there yet?

After a 425 bps hike, the Fed’s message in the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released this week was an important one as it guided the market to expect higher rates going into 2023 but at the same time also signalled that the war against inflation is far from over and the Fed will continue to raise rates until it can achieve its targeted inflation print.

Compared with its September forecast of 4.6%, the Fed has now raised its median Fed Fund Rate (FFR) for 2023 to 5.1%, an increase of 50 bps while at the same time, the Fed also expects median FFR to drop by 100 bps each in 2024 and 2025 to 4.1% and 3.1% from earlier projected rate of 3.9% and 2.9% respectively.

Core PCE inflation, which is the Fed’s benchmark rate for inflationary pressure, is now expected to hit a median rate of 4.8% in 2022 before easing to 3.5% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024 respectively.

By all means, the Fed is forecasting that inflation will be tamed in time to come. Hence, in all likelihood, we have seen the peak in inflationary pressure but perhaps we will be in for a higher US rate for longer before we see the Fed’s pivot.

Contrary to market expectations, the FOMC minutes this week revealed that the Fed is not expected to cut rates in 2023.

As for the market, based on Fed Fund Futures the Fed is expected to raise the FFR by 25 bps each over the next three meetings to reach 5.00% and 5.25%, followed by two rate cuts of 25 bps each in the second half of 2023, bringing the FFR back to 4.5% and 4.75% at the end of 2023.

Bank Negara to stand pat?

Compared to many central banks in the region or globally, Bank Negara move to raise the benchmark Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 100 bps last year is seen as rather muted.

Based on the year-to-date core CPI of 2.9% up to November 2022, the inflationary pressure experienced by Malaysia remained within Bank Negara’s forecast of between 2% and 3% for the year and going into 2023, core inflation prints will remain elevated at the beginning of the year but may ease later on, especially with the current government’s efforts in reducing the cost of living.

Given that scenario and the likelihood that the Fed and other regional central banks too are almost done raising rates, Bank Negara may stand pat and leave the OPR unchanged for 2023 at 2.75%. After all, a higher rate of between 25 bps to 50 bps as predicted by many broking firms will only result in higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, a move that will likely accelerate the pace of economic slowdown in 2023. By leaving the OPR unchanged, Bank Negara is signalling that it is done with raising rates and the current rate remains commodative and supportive of economic growth.

Positive real returns?

One of the arguments for higher interest rates is whether depositors are getting positive real returns, which is the difference between fixed deposit rates and inflation prints.

Chart 2 shows that based on November 2022 statistics, the depositors are at the losing end as the 12-month deposit rate was 132 bps lower than the monthly inflation print of 4%.

However, interestingly, as the market is anticipating rate hikes of 25 bps in the January 2023 Monetary Policy Committee meeting and another hike in March 2023, 12-month fixed deposit rates of many banks have passed the 3% mark and depositors could even easily enjoy rates up to 4% as promotional activities to attract fresh deposits have intensified over the past month. With that, depositors are already getting returns close to the headline monthly inflation prints.

In conclusion, while it makes sense for Bank Negara to stand pat and not raise rates in its first two meetings this year as widely expected, the market has already priced in the scenario that the central bank is ready to raise rates by 50 bps to take the benchmark OPR to 3.25%, the level last seen in March 2019, almost four years ago.

Pankaj C Kumar Pankaj C. Kumar is a long-time investment analyst. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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Saturday, 7 January 2023

Interest and inflation rates, how high is high?

CLICK TO ENLARGE

Central banks had no choice but to raise rates to fend off inflationary pressure that has been persistent throughout the year, although there have been some signs of easing lately.

Not to be left behind, even the Bank of Japan, while not lifting key benchmark rate, allowed its 10-year Japanese government bonds to move 50 bps from its 0% target, instead of 25 bps earlier.

It is a move that is seen recognising that inflation is finally biting the Japanese too.

CLICK TO ENLARGE

Chart 2 shows that based on November 2022 statistics, the depositors are at the losing end as the 12-month deposit rate was 132 bps lower than the monthly inflation print of 4%.

Can inflation be tamed?

Hence, there has been not only a persistent rise in consumer demand but one that is not matched by consistent supply provided in the marketplace, resulting in a hike in aggregate prices.

Are we there yet?

Core PCE inflation, which is the Fed’s benchmark rate for inflationary pressure, is now expected to hit a median rate of 4.8% in 2022 before easing to 3.5% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024 respectively.

Contrary to market expectations, the FOMC minutes this week revealed that the Fed is not expected to cut rates in 2023.

Bank Negara to stand pat?

Compared to many central banks in the region or globally, Bank Negara move to raise the benchmark Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 100 bps last year is seen as rather muted.

Positive real returns?

One of the arguments for higher interest rates is whether depositors are getting positive real returns, which is the difference between fixed deposit rates and inflation prints.

Chart 2 shows that based on November 2022 statistics, the depositors are at the losing end as the 12-month deposit rate was 132 bps lower than the monthly inflation print of 4%.

Pankaj C Kumar Pankaj C. Kumar is a long-time investment analyst. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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Wednesday, 5 October 2022

Malaysia not in crisis as State of economy goes beyond ringgit's showing

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State of economy goes beyond ringgit's showing

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/10/05/state-of-economy-goes-beyond-ringgits-showing

Malaysia's weakening ringgit not reflecting state of economy ...

Inflation likely to peak in the third quarter of this year.

PETALING JAYA: One could not help but notice that Bank Negara governor repeatedly emphasised in her latest speech – three times to be exact – that the Malaysian economy is no longer in a crisis.

Tan Sri Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus highlighted that the economic recovery is well underway, although she acknowledged that the future ahead will be “challenging, highly uncertain and unpredictable.”

Interestingly, in the same speech at the Khazanah Megatrends Forum 2022 yesterday, Nor Shamsiah warned that Malaysia could be left behind if no reforms are done.

“As a country, we must now focus on strengthening our economic fundamentals, resilience and flexibility.

“Our neighbours within the region are actively pressing on with reform measures. We run the risk of being left behind if we do not act now,” she said.

Amid speculation that a recession is imminent, Nor Shamsiah advised Malaysians not to act in a manner that jeopardises the recovery and the confidence of investors, which in turn can create a “negative self-fulfilling cycle.” StarPicks

Commenting on the economy, Nor Shamsiah noted that Malaysia’s investment activity and prospects continue to be supported by the realisation of multi-year projects.

The country’s exports have also been recording double-digit growth since the start of 2021.

Nor Shamsiah also said that the labour market has shown strength.

“Wages in both the manufacturing and services sectors have been increasing since the start of the year, at around 5% and 7%, respectively.

“Unemployment is now less than 4% and income prospects remain positive,” she said.

On price pressures, the central bank head said Malaysia’s inflation remains well anchored, with headline inflation averaging 3.1% year-to-date.

“It is largely supply-driven but we have also seen stronger demand with the reopening of the economy.

“That said, we project that inflation will peak in the third quarter of this year.

“In addition, the extent of upward pressures to inflation will remain partly contained by the existing price controls and the prevailing spare capacity in the economy,” she said.

Despite her optimistic view on the outlook, Nor Shamsiah acknowledged that rising geopolitical tensions and conflict, global inflationary pressures and extremely volatile financial markets will lead to slower growth in 2023.

However, she also pointed out that the fundamentals of the local economy and financial system are strong.

“The preemptive policy measures taken will help us to weather this storm,” she said.

With regard to the weakening ringgit against the US dollar, Nor Shamsiah said it is not a reflection of the state of the economy.

“The exchange rate is only one indicator among many.

“Like I said at the start, it is important to consider the strength and positive performance of the Malaysian economy.

“Growth is robust, the labour market is healthy and the financial system is resilient and continues to perform its role effectively,” she said.

Nor Shamsiah also noted that Malaysia has a strong external position with more foreign currency assets than foreign currency liabilities.

“Foreign currency borrowings only account for less than 3% of total federal government debt,” she said.

Between January and September 2022, the ringgit has depreciated by 10.2% against the US dollar.

The current depreciation of the ringgit is due to the strength of the US dollar.

Nor Shamsiah called upon corporate Malaysia to help maintain “orderly market conditions” by taking action that do not exacerbate the ringgit’s depreciation against the greenback.

“Bank Negara will ensure that our onshore foreign exchange market remains liquid, so businesses can be assured that all their foreign currency needs can be efficiently fulfilled.

“So there is no need to hoard or front-load US dollar purchases.

“Corporates and domestic financial institutions should also be prudent in managing their balance sheets.

“This includes to avoid creating new vulnerabilities, especially from foreign currency debt and financial imbalances, as well as hedging their risks appropriately,” she said.

As for businesses and investors that benefit from a ringgit depreciation, the central bank governor urged them to take advantage of the weaker ringgit.

“For example, for those in tourism and exports to increase production and capitalise on this opportunity, and for those with a global presence, to reinvest back home,” she added.

Khazanah Nasional managing director Datuk Amirul Feisal Wan Zahir, who also spoke at the Khazanah Megatrends Forum 2022, shared Nor Shamsiah’s views on reform initiatives.

He pointed out that Malaysia is still “too far down” the value chain of productive work and that growth has to be fully inclusive.

“Our past growth was based on foreign direct investments-driven, low-cost competitive manufacturing – this no longer serves at our current stage of development.

“Long term structural reforms are required – but these will require substantial resources.

“And future growth must not allow inequality to persist, it must be fully inclusive of all socio-economic classes, and fully include women – where structural norms have long impeded opportunities for this demographic,” he said.

Amirul also spoke on climate change, highlighting that there is much work to be done, globally and collectively.

“But this does not mean that all countries have the same work to do, the same amount of pain to bear, the same standards of accountability.

“There is nothing fair and equal about climate change,” he said.

He mentioned about the devastating floods in Pakistan, in which an area three times the size of the country of Portugal went under water, and yet Pakistan produces less than 1% of the global greenhouse gas emissions.

In order to meet critical climate goals, Amirul said the world needs to ensure a “just transition”, which is much more complex and nuanced than a common standard for all nations.

“Just six national entities are responsible for producing over 70% of the greenhouse gas already emitted in human history, namely the United States, the European Union, China, Russia, the United Kingdom and Japan.

“Malaysia’s contribution, as of 2020, has been a mere 0.37%.

“New ‘targets’ are not so easily attained by developing countries, who suffer the most from climate change, and yet historically have contributed the least to causing it,” he said.

Amirul also added that all businesses and organisations have an ethical duty to act immediately and must not just wait for regulations to be imposed.

“This is why Khazanah Nasional has already defined and adopted a Sustainability Framework which encompasses environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards.

“We have published these on our website to make them fully public, and they include carbon-neutral operations by 2023, net-zero emissions by 2050, 30% of board and senior leadership positions to be held by women by 2025 and ESG-linked key performance indicators for key leadership positions in our portfolio companies by 2023,” he said.

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Malaysia's economy is not in crisis: Bank Negara governor

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2022/10/836783/malaysias-economy-not-crisis-bank-negara-governor

Malaysian economy not in crisis: Bank Negara Malaysia

Governor's Feature Address at the Khazanah Megatrends ...

https://www.bnm.gov.my/-/g-spch-khazanah-megatrends-2022

We’re not headed towards a currency crisis, says Finance...

Pegging the ringgit not in Malaysia's best interest - YouTube

US economy in technical recession as Q2 GDP shrank 0.6% amid toxic policies

Repercussions of the US Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hike cycle have emerged across the global economy and in the US, as the US economy falls into technical recession after two straight months of negative growth, final GDP data showed on Thursday.

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Saturday, 9 July 2022

BANK NEGARA RAISES OPR TO 2,5% , Still a good hedge against inflation

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PETALING JAYA: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Bank Negara has increased the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to 2.25% amid positive growth prospects for the local economy.

“For the Malaysian economy, economic activity continued to strengthen in recent months.

“Exports and retail spending indicators affirm the positive growth momentum, supported by the transition to endemicity, “ the central bank said in a statement yesterday.

The ceiling and floor rates of the corridor of the OPR are correspondingly increased to 2.5% and 2%, respectively.

The OPR, which is a benchmark rate that allows banks to determine their lending and deposit rates, had been reduced by a cumulative 125 basis points during the course of the Covid-19 pandemic, bringing it to a historic low of 1.75%.

Yesterday’s increase was a second consecutive one after a 25-basis-point hike in May, which was also the first time the OPR was raised since the onset of the pandemic.

OCBC Bank economist Wellian Wiranto said the fact that the central bank had not gone more “ballistic” with a 50-basis-point hike yesterday speaks of a “heavy preference for a gingerly approach in tightening.”

“That is a prudent thing, given how global recession fears are on the rise,” he said.

Going forward, he said he expects at least one more 25-basis-point hike this year that will be seen as a further normalisation of policy rate rather than outright tightening.

“It might then pause in the last meeting of the year in November to assess the balance between inflation and recession risks before undertaking any action thereafter,“ he added.

In its statement, the central bank said the extent of upward pressures on inflation will remain partly contained by existing price controls, fuel subsidies and the continued spare capacity in the economy.

“The inflation outlook continues to be subject to global commodity price developments, arising mainly from the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine and prolonged supply- related disruptions, as well as domestic policy measures,“ it said.

Year-to-date, headline inflation averaged 2.4%.

.In its statement, the central bank said the extent of upward pressures on inflation will remain partly contained by existing price controls, fuel subsidies and the continued spare capacity in the economy.

“While it is projected to remain within the 2.2%-3.2% forecast range for the year, headline inflation may be higher in some months due mainly to the base effect from electricity prices.

“Underlying inflation, as measured by core inflation, is expected to average between 2% and 3% in 2022, as demand continues to improve amid the high-cost environment,” it said.

Bank Negara said that in recent months, the unemployment rate had declined further, with higher labour participation and improving income prospects.

“Looking ahead, while external demand is expected to moderate, weighed by headwinds to global growth, economic growth will be supported by firm domestic demand.

“Additionally, the reopening of international borders since April 1 would facilitate the recovery in tourism-related sectors.”

Nevertheless, the central bank warned of downside risks to growth that continue to stem from a weaker-than-expected global expansion, further escalation of geopolitical conflicts and worsening supply chain disruptions.

“Even as it continues to project a strengthening economic recovery, things are likely to turn less rosy from here,” OCBC’s Wiranto said.

Bank Negara said that at the current OPR level, the stance of monetary policy remained accommodative and supportive of economic growth.

“The MPC will continue to assess evolving conditions and their implications on the overall outlook to domestic inflation and growth.

Rakuten Trade head of equity sales Vincent Lau told StarBiz yesterday’s hike was a reflection of confidence in the continued growth of the Malaysia economy.

“Any adjustments to the monetary policy settings, going forward, would be done in a measured and gradual manner, ensuring that monetary policy remains accommodative to support a sustainable economic growth in an environment of price stability.”

Meanwhile, Rakuten Trade head of equity sales Vincent Lau told StarBiz yesterday’s hike was a reflection of confidence in the continued growth of the Malaysian economy.

“With the increase in our benchmark rate, this may also stem the outflow of foreign money, which will technically see higher returns alongside the higher rate,” he said.

That said, the stock market fell over 20 points at the close yesterday after the hike was announced.

“It was probably a knee-jerk reaction as the hike had more or less been priced in already,” Lau said.

Bursa Malaysia’s fall was also in line with most regional markets as the fear of a global recession continued to rear its ugly head.

Nevertheless, at the close of the market yesterday, lenders like Malayan Banking Bhd and CIMB Group Holdings Bhd finished higher as investors bought the stocks, banking on a higher OPR that could likely boost the lenders’ earnings.