How China’s slowdown may spill over to Malaysia

China’s slowdown is a key risk for the world economy, commodities and energy markets as well as the semiconductor industry. — Bloomberg

CHINA’S stuttering economic recovery post-Covid-19 pandemic reopening has stirred concerns that a protracted deep economic slowdown will have global repercussions, given its interconnectedness with each and every economy in this globalised world and transmission to both emerging and developed countries through different channels.

A slowing China economy is a bane for the world economy. While the global economy continues to gradually recover in 2023, the growth remains weak and low by historical standards, and the balance of risk remains tilted to the downside. It is not out of the woods yet.

Global manufacturing and services activities are losing momentum. Global trade, especially exports, remain in the doldrums, weighed down by weak consumer and business spending amid a continued inventory adjustment in the semiconductor sector.

Prices of commodities and energy have also softened. Global monetary tightening has started to weigh down on activity, credit demand, households and firms’ financial burden, putting pressure on the real estate market.

A slew of disappointing economic data for two consecutive months (June and July) from China indicated that the world’s second-largest economy (17.8% of the world’s gross domestic product or GDP) is indeed losing steam.

Falling exports, weak consumer spending, slowing growth in fixed investment and continued concerns about the property sector have dampened the recovery.

The emergence of deflation concerns adds to the complexity of China’s flagging recovery.

The Chinese government has provided a range of strategic measures aimed at targeting specific sectors.

These range from consumption (spending on new energy vehicles, home appliances, electronics, catering and tourism) to the property sector (reducing down-payment ratios for first-time homebuyers, lowering mortgage rates and easing purchase restrictions for buying a second house) and tax relief measures to support small businesses, tech startups and rural households.

China’s slowdown is a key risk for the world economy, commodities and energy markets as well as the semiconductor industry.

Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, China was the world’s most important source of international travellers, accounting for 20% of total spending in international tourism (US$255bil overseas and making 166 million overseas trips in 2019).

We consider three channels through which China’s slowdown can have spillover effects on Malaysia via direct and indirect transmissions: trade and commodity prices, services and financial markets.

Overall, the estimated impact of a 1% decline in China’s GDP growth could impact about 0.5% points on Malaysia’s economic growth.

Trade is the most important channel as China has been Malaysia’s largest trading partner since 2009, with a total trade share of 16.8% (exports share: 13.1%; imports share: 21.2%) in the first half of 2023 (1H23).

Spillovers from slower China demand and commodity prices are negative for Malaysia, a net commodity exporter.

After recording seven successive years of increases in exports to China since 2017, Malaysia’s exports to China declined by 8.8% in 1H23.

In sectors such as tourism, China’s tourists are one of the major foreign tourists in Malaysia. In the first five months of 2023, Chinese tourists totalled 403,121 persons or 5.4% of total international tourists in Malaysia, and was only 12.9% of 3.1 million persons in 2019.

According to the Malaysia Inbound Tourism Association, though the number of Chinese tour groups coming to Malaysia has increased in July and August to between 800 and 1,000 for the summer vacation, the number of tourists per group is smaller between 10 and 20 persons.

While direct financial links between China and Malaysia are limited, there will be indirect spillovers through spikes in global financial volatility as investors worry that China’s deep economic slowdown would temper global growth, and also has spillovers to the US economy.

Will China foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Malaysia slow?

Capital movements will be influenced by the inter-linking of factors such as economic growth and investment prospects in the host country (Malaysia).

These include stable political conditions and good economic and financial management as well as conducive investment policies.

The US-China trade war and rising trends of geoeconomic fragmentation have witnessed FDI flows among geopolitically aligned economies that are closer geographically as well as geopolitical preferences.

Throughout the period 2015-2022, China’s gross FDI inflows into Malaysia averaged RM7.5bil per year. Even during the Covid-19 pandemic, China’s economic slowdown did not deter the inflows of FDI into Malaysia (RM7.8bil in 2020; RM8.1bil in 2021; and RM9.8bil in 2022).

In 1H23, China’s gross FDI inflows increased by 25.2% to RM2.1bil though it is likely that the full-year FDI will be below the average FDI inflows of RM8.6bil per year in 2020 to 2022.

China was the largest foreign investor in Malaysia’s manufacturing sector in 2016 to 2022 before dropping to second position in 2022 and the fourth position in 2021.

There was a contrasting picture when it comes to China’s approved investment in the manufacturing sector, which saw two consecutive years of decline (2022: 42.5% to RM9.6bil and 2021: 6.5% to RM16.6bil) and declining further by 17.8% to RM4.3bil in the first quarter of 2023.

We believe that Malaysia will remain one of the preferred investment destinations to China, given both countries’ strong established friendship and bilateral ties in trade and investment as well as people-to-people movements.

Malaysia needs to enhance its investment climate with progressive policies to rival regional peers to offer the country as a China Plus One destination for China and foreign companies.

Malaysia can offer investments to build a chip-testing and packaging factory, advanced manufacturing technologies such as robotics and automation, manufacturing electric vehicle supply chain, petrochemicals, renewable energy, agriculture and food processing.

China can offer the technology, innovation and technical know-how as well as talent that deepen the country’s industry integration with global supply chains and also links Malaysia and China to South-East Asia.

China can invest in Malaysian manufacturing companies to help them adopt advanced manufacturing technologies and further improve their competitiveness.

The RM170bil prospective investments (comprising RM69.7bil from 19 memoranda of understanding and RM100.3bil from the round-table meeting) concluded during the prime minister’s visit to China are set to provide a massive investment boost to our economy for years to come.

Among these are China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical Holdings, which will invest RM80bil to build a petrochemical park in Pengerang, Johor; and investment from Geely, with an initial investment of RM2bil in the Tanjung Malim Automotive Valley, which will gradually increase to RM23bil in the future.

 LEE HENG GUIE is Socio-Economic Research Centre executive director. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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INTERACTIVE: Journey to Merdeka

China, the largest in Asia and the world's top recipient of FDI set to be net investor

Asia the world's top recipient of FDI 

KUALA LUMPUR: Amid scratchy global economic growth, Asia accounts for nearly 30% of global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, making it the world’s top recipient of FDI.

Generally, developing countries were attracting more FDI than developed economies, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) World Investment Report 2014, which said total inflows to developing Asia (excluding West Asia) amounted to US$382bil last year, 4% higher than the previous year.

In the last two years, top 10 recipients of FDI flows in developing Asia were China, Hong Kong, Singapore, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan.

China took the lead with an estimated FDI outflow of US$101bil last year, spurred by mega-deals such as the US$15bil takeover of Canadian oil and gas company Nexen by China state-owned entity CNOOC Ltd as well as the US$5bil Shuanghui-Smithfield acquisition in the food industry.

South-East Asia registered slower growth, however, with inflows to the region rising just 7% to US$125bil in 2013, compared to the rapid growth in the regional grouping – from US$47bil in 2009 to US$118bil in 2012.

The report said Singapore was the largest FDI recipient in the region, with new mega-deals driving the figure to a record high of US$64bil.

Indonesia showed stable performance, while Thailand’s inflows grew to US$13bil although many projects were shelved due to political instability.

“At today’s level of investment in SDG-related sectors in developing countries – both public and private – we still face, according to Unctad’s estimates, an average annual funding shortfall of some US$2.5 trillion over the next 15 years following the end of the Millennium Development Goals,” UNDP resident representative for Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei Michelle Gyles-McDonnough said at the launch of the report at the Malaysian Investment Develop-ment Authority headquarters.

She highlighted the important linkages between trade and investment, amplifying the need for sustainable development.

-Contributed by Cheryl Pod,The Star/Asia News Network

China's outward investment to soon exceed FDI, set to be net investor

Outward flows likely to exceed FDI in nation this year, UN report says

China's outward investment is very likely to exceed foreign direct investment inflows this year, making the country a net investor, according to officials at a United Nations body.

This "inevitable trend" will have "great significance in reshaping the economic structure and long-term development" of the world's second-largest economy, they said.

In 2013, China's foreign direct investment rose by 2.3 percent year-on-year to $123.9 billion, ranking second in the world after the United States, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's World Investment Report on Tuesday.

"China remained the recipient of the second-largest flows in the world. Meanwhile, the quality of FDI inflows improved, with more into high-end manufacturing and services with high added value," said Zhan Xiaoning, director of the Investment and Enterprise Division at UNCTAD.

"What's more, China's outward investment is more striking," Zhan said.

In 2013, investment outflows from China increased by 15 percent year-on-year to $101 billion, the third highest in the world after the United States and Japan, the report said.

As China continues to deregulate outbound investment, outflows to developed and developing countries are expected to grow further, it said.

Zhan said, "China's economic landscape, driven by exports and foreign investment in the past three decades, will change significantly. Outward investment will serve as an important driver for industrial upgrading and economic growth."

Liang Guoyong, an economic affairs officer at UNCTAD, said, "It is very hard to predict when China will become a net investor, but the trend is inevitable."

The process will accelerate along with the nation's fast economic growth, the increase in Chinese companies' competitiveness and the amount of resources and market share they gain, Liang said.

The change will lead to a more effective allocation of financial resources for the Chinese economy, as the country holds the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, Liang added.

Huo Jianguo, president of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, a Ministry of Commerce think tank, said China's new role as a net investor will help ease trade frictions.

"The rapid increase in overseas investment by Chinese enterprises is very likely to transform the trade landscape, because profits from the overseas market will lessen the country's reliance on exports, reducing trade frictions and pressure from swelling foreign exchange reserves," Huo said.

Contributed by By Li Jiabao and Mu Chen (China Daily)

Outflows from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) rose five percent, with Singapore leading the pack at $27 billion, more than double in 2012. The Philippines' FDI outflows last year fell to $3.6 billion from $4.2 in 2012.



However, the Philippines is nowhere in the top 10 recipients of foreign inflows in Asia amid the slowdown in FDI in Asean compared with the rapid growth in the past 3 years -- from $47 billion in 2009 to $118 billion in 2012.

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An American-Made Business Model Has Less Success Overseas

For years, the titans of finance have held out the promise that they could export their business model overseas and mint billions in the process. Yet, there are increasing signs that global deal-making was always a myth.

If you’ve been anywhere near a Wall Street conference in the last five years, you know the drill. Deal makers bemoan the United States as a mature and overregulated economy. They talk about heading abroad, as emerging market economies leave us far behind. To listen to them, one might think the rest of the world was a paradise out of “Atlas Shrugged,” where capital flows and where private equity, investment banks and other investors can freely seek opportunities.

So what country is No. 1 in initial public offerings so far this year? Yes, it is the United States, according to Renaissance Capital, with 75 I.P.O.’s raising $39 billion in total. Compare this activity with China, where 41 I.P.O.’s raised just $8.1 billion.

M&AS

And in mergers and acquisitions? Again, it is the United States, with 53 percent of the worldwide deal volume, up from 51 percent from last year, according to Dealogic. For investment banks, this means that the United States has a 46 percent share of the $63 billion in worldwide investment banking revenue, up from 34.6 percent in 2009.

With the slowdown in once-hot emerging markets, the tide is going out, baring all of the problems and issues associated with global deal-making.

China is a prime example. Huge amounts of foreign and state investment produced an economic miracle. And in that time, wealth was there to be had.

But let’s be clear about where that wealth came from. In the United States, deal makers make money primarily by buying underperforming assets, adding some financial wizardry and riding any improvements in the stock market. Sometimes, they get lucky by making a quick profit, but often private equity works to squeeze out inefficiencies and make operating improvements in companies and then takes them public a few years later.

China's situation

In China, what increasingly appears to have been a stock market and asset bubble spurred by hundreds of billions in direct investment has created some spectacular early profits for deal makers. The private equity firm Carlyle Group, for example, has made an estimated $4.4 billion on an investment in China Pacific Insurance, which it took public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

But now, with the Chinese I.P.O. market at a virtual standstill and the Shanghai market down more than 30 percent from its high last year, that avenue to riches is over. People are starting to say that investment in China resembles a “No Exit” sign.

Deal makers are left with a back-to-basics approach that looks to make money from companies through economic growth or improving their performance. Yet most of these investments are made with state actors and minority positions, meaning that there may be little opportunity to actually do anything more than sit and wait and hope. And you know what they say about hope as a strategy.

It appears that deal makers are starting to realize the problem. Foreign direct investment in China was down 3.67 percent from last year to $9.6 billion, and it is likely to remain on a downward trend.

And China has been among the friendliest places for deal makers. Other emerging markets have been less accommodating. Take India, which has been criticized for excessive regulation, high taxes and ownership prohibitions. David Bonderman, the head of the private equity giant TPG Capital, recently said that “we stay away from places that have impossible governments and impossible tax regimes, which means sayonara to India.”

Foreign issues

The comment about India highlights another problem with foreign deal-making: it’s foreign. Sometimes, the political winds change and local governments that initially welcomed investment change their minds.

South Korea, for example, invited foreign capital to invest in its battered financial sector after the Asian currency crisis. But when Lone Star Investments was about to reap billions in profits on an investment in Korea Exchange Bank, a legal battle almost a decade long erupted as Korean government officials accused the fund of vulture investing.

And the political problems are sometimes not directed at foreign investors. South Africa, for example, is undergoing the kind of political turmoil that can stop all foreign investment in its tracks over treatment of its workers and continuing income inequality. Things are not much better in the more mature economies.

Economic doldrums

Europe is in the economic doldrums, and its governments are increasingly protectionist of both jobs and industry. France, for example, recently threatened to nationalize a factory owned by ArcelorMittal, which sought to shut down two furnaces.

The national minister said the company was “not welcome.” It’s hard to see a deal maker profiting from buying an inefficient enterprise that it can’t clean up without risking national censure.

Buying at a low is the lifeblood of any investment strategy — but this assumes that there will be an uptick, and on the Continent, that is uncertain given the state of Greece and the other indebted economies in Southern Europe.

This is all a far cry from the oratory vision-making at conferences. Now that the global gold rush has ended, the belief that the American way of doing deals is portable is being upended.

Fragmented world

We are left with a fragmented world where capital moves not so freely, the problems of politics and regulation are more prominent and investing in emerging markets becomes what it always has been: the province of more specialized investors who are in tune with the political and regulatory requirements. Regardless, the easy riches that many thought these countries would bring are now far out of sight.

And the winner in all of this is likely to be the much-maligned United States, where the economic conditions and regulatory environment first gave birth to these deal makers.

This is not to say that there will still not be global deal-making or that American multinationals will not continue to expand abroad. Of course, there will still be profits in deals overseas. But the vision that deal-making will instantly and seamlessly go global is increasingly exposed as one that was more a fairy tale than reality.- IHT/NYT

---

Steven M. Davidoff, a professor at the Michael E. Moritz College of Law at Ohio State University, is the author of “Gods at War: Shotgun Takeovers, Government by Deal and the Private Equity Implosion.” E-mail: dealprof@nytimes.com | Twitter: @StevenDavidoff

Invest in Malaysia's Real Estates

Malaysia a real-estate shopping destination  

By THEAN LEE CHENG

Welcoming foreign buyers will not necessarily affect property prices

LATE last year and once again about two weeks ago, at least two courses were organised to equip property agents and developers to sell Malaysian properties abroad.

In one of them, real estate professionals paid a few thousands of ringgit to attend a Certified International Property Specialist (CIPS) course to prepare them to sell Malaysian properties overseas. In another, a tax consultant and a lawyer were invited to share their experience and expertise when selling Malaysian properties.

Tan: ‘Our properties are very affordable to Singaporeans. In the region, our real estate is attractively priced.’

 

For about a decade now, developers who have projects around the KLCC area, Penang and Johor have been taking their offerings to Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, London and China. So far, these overtures have been limited to residential and commercial developments. On a broader scale, the Malaysian government has also been encouraging foreigners to buy into Malaysian realty and has started networking with governments and local authorities to make itself known via government agency Malaysia Property Inc.

The question is: will foreigners buying into Malaysian real estate encourage developers to focus on building high-end developments, which are way above the affordability levels of locals?

Invariably, references are made to Singapore and how foreign buying has brought in that element of volatility because at the first sign of trouble, the foreigner leaves the island state.

Malaysia Property Inc (MPI) chief executive officer Kumar Tharmalingam likes to debunk this: “The number of foreign buyers buying into Malaysian properties is very small. Sales to foreigners only make up 2% of total property sales in Malaysia compared with Singapore's 30% . Singapore's volume of properties entering into the market annually is about 20,000 units and foreigners are only allowed to buy private condominiums; which averages about 6,000 units.

“Malaysia has about 120,000 units entering the market annually and 2% of this is 2,400 units.”

Kumar also says it is not possible to compare Malaysia with Singapore and Hong Kong and the market dynamics are very different.

MPI was set up in 2008. The government-property agency has two core objectives: to create international awareness and to establish connections between foreign interests and Malaysian real estate industry players. Its scope of work is not limited to just residential and commercial properties but includes the whole gamut of property investment, from land acquisition to building of factories if this is needed by the foreign investor. MPI has been branding itself for the last 18 months. This year will see the agency implementing some of their strategies when it matches foreign companies with Malaysian projects.

“MPI and much of what we would like to do is still pretty much work-in-progress,” says Kumar who took over the reigns of the agency in Feb 2010.

“MPI is an extension of three government agencies. These are national trade promotion agency Matrade, International Trade and Industry Ministry and Malaysian Investment Development Authority,” he says.

MPI's work is very much tied up with the foreign direct investment. The foreign direct investment will first seek out one of the above three agencies. After that connection is made, and when a foreign investment is approved by the government, there will be a need for land or office space, or even accommodation for staff.

Kumar: ‘Sales to foreigners only make up 2% of total property sales in Malaysia. Of the 120,000 units entering the market annually, 2% is 2,400 units

“There is a time lag between the foreign investor applying for government approval for his investment and his need for real estate. But which ever way one looks at it, land, office building, factories or staff accommodation, real estate comes into the picture. Because these three agencies are not involved in property matters, the requirements of these investors will be eventually be be referred to MPI.

“Or it could be a foreign direct investor who is keen to enter into a joint venture with our local boys. The South Koreans, for example, are keen to contribute a certain amount of equity, but would like to negotiate' a tender as opposed to having an open tender. This was the model they used in Vietnam and China for their real estate investments.” Its role is to facilitate.

With the United States' fragile recovery and Europe going through a recession, Kumar expects interest in Malaysian properties to come mainly from Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, South China, Singapore, Indonesia, India, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Whether it is a coincidence or otherwise, the same year MPI was set up, news of the Government's plans to develop several pieces of land in key strategic areas in the city began to filter out. These mega projects include what is currently known as the Kuala Lumpur International Financial District in Jalan Tun Razak, KL Metropolis in Matrade-Jalan Duta area, the 100-storey building in the Stadium Negara site, now known as Menara Warisan and the Rubber Research Institute land in Sg Buloh. The global financial crisis, which started in 2007 and whose full blown effect was felt around the world, came a year later.

While MPI plays an intermediary role to facilitate the business needs of the real estate, concerns about foreign interest pushing up prices are also pooh-poohed by Reapfield chief executive officer Gerard Kho. On the contrary, he says there are a few locations that need the support of foreign buyers.

“The high-end condominium market need the support of foreign buyers. This year, we expect to see rent and prices adjust a bit in that sector. It will also be a challenging year for the high-end condominium market.”

By contrast, domestic demand is expected to remain resilient.

“I am bullish up to the middle of this year despite the 30% downpayment requirement for the third and subsequent house and other measures by Bank Negara to curb the growth in household debts. The third and fourth quarter are difficult to predict,” he says.

“Last year, 84% of our transactions were from the secondary market, a reflection of strong domestic demand despite the many predictions of 2011 being a difficult year,”

Following up on Kho's concerns about the high-end condominium sector, the National Property Information Centre's Residential Property Stock Table shows the Federal Territory having an existing stock of serviced apartments and condominiums totalling 156,251 units including about 4,000 units completed last year.

While these numbers do not separate the high-end units from the rest, it does indicate the large number of serviced apartments and condominiums in the Federal Territory and the yearly additions that enter the market.

About 5,000 units were added into the market this year and another 4,500 units are expected to stream in next year, says Kho.

On the often quoted Singapore-Malaysia example, Kho says the “Singapore and Hong Kong property markets have a high global exposure. Both these markets are very different from Malaysia in terms of land, and government-control measures.

“In Singapore, foreigners are allowed only to buy into private condominium projects. Malaysia is different. Foreigners can buy into any segment of the property market if it is beyond a certain price threshold, which dilutes the focus on any particular sub-segment of the property market,” says Kho.

Lawyer Chris Tan who acts on behalf of foreigners buying into the Malaysian market says his biggest clientele are from Singapore.

“Our properties are very affordable to them because of the exchange rate and because of the high prices in the city state. In the region, our real estate is attractively priced,” he says.

The locations his clients buy into include the KLCC area, Mont'Kiara, Damansara, Bangsar and Ampang. Johor and Penang are other popular destinations.

“Iskandar Malaysia is like Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Shenzhen is thriving today because of the Hong Kong factor,” says Tan.

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Is the India Story over for Singh and company?

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INDIA DIARY by COOMI KAPOOR

IT has turned out to be the worst year for the ruling United Progressive Alliance Government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Everything that could go wrong, went wrong.

As the year draws to a close, the public image of the Congress-led coalition was at its nadir, with the Government scoring a series of self-goals. Indeed, such was the disenchantment with Singh that in certain sections of the ruling alliance there was hush-hush talk of replacing him with a far more politically savvy leader.

The latest fiasco that further damaged the standing of the Government concerned the unilateral decision a few weeks ago to allow majority Foreign Direct Investment in multi-brand retail. Once the announcement was made, all hell broke loose, with members of the ruling coalition itself opposing the entry of the western supermarket chains to set up shop here.

The timing of the FDI move was all wrong. The Government was mired in corruption cases of its key members. The Gandhian activist, Anna Hazare, was mounting public pressure through his hunger fasts for creating a strong and effective anti-corruption ombudsman (Lokpal). Food inflation was running high in double-digit numbers. And the stage was being set for crucial Assembly elections in UP and four other States.

Under the circumstances, the Government invited trouble by opening itself to the combined attack from the Right and the Left when it unilaterally decided to allow majority FDI in multi-brand retail. And a disaster it turned out to be.



When the Parliament opened, the Government resisted any move to debate the FDI decision on a motion involving voting. For more than a week, there was a standoff.Finally, the Government wilted under the combined pressure of the Opposition and its own allies. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, virtually the lone trouble shooter for the Government, ensured the return of normalcy in Parliament by categorically stating the FDI proposal was put on hold. The Government, he admitted, did not want to debate the matter since it did not have the requisite numbers in the Lok Sabha.

Significantly, the Prime Minister, who personally pushed the FDI decision, not only spoke forcefully in its favour but also ruled out its rollback at a rally of the Youth Congress at which both Sonia Gandhi and son, Rahul were on the dais. Neither Gandhi said a word in favour of the FDI, a broad hint to the Congress troops not to go out on a limb to back it. Observers noted that increasingly the PM and the Gandhis were no longer on the same page on key issues.

That the Americans were pushing hard for opening up multi-brand retail was widely known, especially after the recent publication of the leaked US cables by WikiLeaks.

In one of these cables, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a one-time board member of Wal-Mart Inc, is quoted asking a high-ranking US diplomat in New Delhi about the position of key members of the UPA Government vis-à-vis multi-brand retail.

On its part, the Prime Minister justified the decision on grounds of potential benefits to consumers, farmers, etc. Also, it was meant to boost the economic sentiment and foreign investment into the country. Politically, the Government believed that the decision would counter the common criticism that it suffered from policy-paralysis.

But sheer movement is a poor substitute for a purposeful and thoughtful action. Virtually rolling back the FDI decision pulled the image of the Government several notches down. Besides, it proved that despite their inherent differences, the Left and the Right could jointly mount pressure on the Government.

The FDI fiasco was the latest in a long series of rebuffs suffered by the Government during 2011. In a year in which key members of the ruling alliance were arrested in corruption cases, when there was record food inflation, more than 16% depreciation of the rupee against the dollar, and overall growth declining sharply, the Government had very little credit to show.

That was not all. A bigger crisis lurked in the corner, with the Gandhian leader Anna Hazare threatening to sit on another indefinite fast at the end of the on-going winter session later this month if a strong and effective Lokpal Bill was not passed by Parliament. A standing committee of Parliament had not embraced main points of the draft Bill presented by Team Anna, leading the Gandhian to accuse the Government of its wanting to pass a toothless law which would completely fail to check rampant corruption.

Given that the Government was busy fire-fighting round the year, captains of industry expressed concern that the policy paralysis would cripple the economy.

In such a gloomy scenario, it should not come as a surprise that many observers believe that the India Story is already over.

Singh, critics insist, does not have the skills and the temperament to manage a difficult coalition. Even his USP that he was personally clean is no more an advantage, with people saying that he has presided over the most corrupt government since Independence.

Of course, his fate can be decided only by Sonia Gandhi. Should she find a better alternative, or her son, Rahul, is ready to take over as prime minister, there is now little doubt that Singh will find himself eased out.