China making economic mark in Africa

The Chinese presence in Africa is quite extraordinary and the continent collectively is the third-largest recipient of Chinese outward foreign direct investment of nearly US$90bil.

AFRICA, with its one billion population and surging birth and economic growth rates, is and will be the next economic battlefield, a terrain that will be fought over by Chinese, Indian, American and European investors.

While Malaysia is a small fry among this company, we have a surprisingly high profile thanks to Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s foresight and enthusiasm for the continent in the 80s and 90s. Dr Mahathir founded the Langkawi International Dialogues in 1995, which was and remains an important platform for Malaysia to engage with African nations.

We shouldn’t let these relationships lie forgotten. Instead, we need to build on this remarkable goodwill because it can provide real business opportunities for our country.

As the IMF had forecast in October 2012, Sub-Saharan Africa’s regional output is expected to expand by about 5.25% in 2012 and 2013.

The Financial Times on the other hand reported in November 2011 that the African Development Bank expected pan-African GDP in 2012 to be 5.5%.

True, poverty and political instability remain major issues but these are phenomenal rates compared to its former European colonial masters now.

Meanwhile, the Chinese presence is quite extraordinary, beginning from my fellow travellers on the late-night Kenya Airways Boeing 777 bound for Nairobi during my November trip there — many of whom were clearly from Guangzhou where the plane had originated. I still remember drifting off to sleep as announcements in Mandarin droned on in the background.

Upon arriving in Nairobi, I noticed to my surprise that most of my fellow Asian travellers had merely changed planes for other more exotic destinations – Juba, Lilongwe, Maputo, Addis Ababa, Kinshasa and Douala.

Nairobi, while strange and alien enough for me, was already old-hat for my Chinese compatriots.

Driving into town along the Mombasa Highway, I hit the morning rush-hour, enduring what can only be described of as a truly Asian traffic jam, replete with peddlers selling newspapers, magazines, household implements and toys.

We crawled along for mile after mile, negotiating the now inadequate roundabouts, overtaken in turn by the many people walking along the side of the busy thoroughfare.

After an hour or so, the city’s downtown with the distinctive cylindrical-shaped Kenyatta International Convention Centre – an icon in Nairobi where I was to stay – thankfully emerged into view.

Turning off the highway towards my hotel, I noticed a new intersection, replete with flyovers up ahead. Squinting, I could just about make out the banners announcing its upcoming launch.

Having been struck by the poor state of Nairobi’s infrastructure, I asked my driver about the new development and was told: “The Chinese built it sir. It’s the new Thika Expressway and the president will be opening it tomorrow.”

Chinese trade and investment in Africa has boomed. As Greg Levesque of the US-China Business Council wrote in the Business Insider on 27 June, the continent collectively is the third-largest recipient of Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) of nearly US$90bil (RM273bil).

Major destinations include South Africa, Angola, Nigeria and Algeria.

The key sector is of course energy, with Chinese state-owned firms like the China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) hunting oil and gas blocks to meet the Asian giant’s energy hunger.

However, China is also moving into other sectors like infrastructure. The Thika Expressway for instance created 3,500 jobs for local Kenyans.

Also, in July, outgoing Chinese President Hu Jintao offered over US$20bil (RM60.8bil) in loans to African countries over the next three years.

But China’s push into Africa hasn’t come without criticism, and during the Mo Ibrahim Foundation dialogue that I attended in Dakar later on, a number of speakers touched on the imbalance in relations. Most felt uneasy about the way Africa’s natural resources were being exported to China, in return for which Africans were importing all manner of consumer goods.

As one speaker said, “The Chinese need to set up factories here in Africa to supply this market. In years to come, we will have the largest pool of young workers”.

The pan-African investment banker, Mamadou Toure felt that the continent is generally receptive. However he stresses: “China’s investments in Africa currently exceed the World Bank’s. We do need to diversify our partners.”

Indeed, there’s concern that China’s influence could alter the very social fabric of Africa. Afia Asantewaa Asare-Kyei, a Program Manager with George Soros’ Open Society Foundation in Senegal and a Ghanaian recalls a recent trip back home to her village in the Ashanti Region:

“I was surprised to see Chinese workers panning for gold alongside the locals.”

The Chinese presence is multi-faceted and deep. Indeed even in Dakar, at the newly built National Theatre (where the foundation’s dialogue took place), constructed with Chinese funding (they picked up around US$28mil (RM85mil) of the total US$32mil (RM97.3mil) cost) and know-how. Chinese workers – pleased with what they’d achieved, were very much in evidence.

The African decade is upon us. Are we in Malaysia ready to seize the opportunities that Dr Mahathir bequeathed us?

COMMENT 

By KARIM RASLAN

US building new spy wing to focus on Asia

AFP 12/2/2012

The Pentagon, in a major expansion of its intelligence gathering activities, plans to assemble an espionage network rivaling the Central Intelligence Agency in size, The Washington Post reported.

Citing unnamed US officials, the newspaper said that as part of the project, US military officials will send hundreds of additional spies overseas.

They also plan to overhaul the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) which has focused primarily during the past decade on activities related to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

When the expansion is complete, the DIA is expected to have as many as 1,600 intelligence "collectors" around the world -- a major step-up for an agency whose presence abroad has not exceeded triple-digits in recent years, the paper said.

The total includes military attaches and others who will not work undercover, The Post wrote.

But US officials told the daily that the plan also includes deployment of a new generation of clandestine operatives to be trained by the CIA.

These new operatives are to work frequently with the US Joint Special Operations Command, but they will get their spying assignments from the Department of Defense, the paper said.

The Pentagon's top intelligence priorities are Islamist militant groups in Africa, weapons transfers by North Korea and Iran, and military modernization underway in China, the newspaper wrote.

A strategic game-changer, the Crude dynamics a new economic 'golden age' for USA likely?

A SEISMIC shift is under way in global affairs. At its most potent, this dynamic could conceivably upset the accepted wisdom of where the ‘centre of gravity’ of the world economy will lie two decades from now.

A recent report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by as early as 2020, the US could surpass Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer — and achieve complete energy independence by 2030.

The IEA forecasts that the US will increase its production to 23 million barrels a day (MMbd) in 10 years from total available supplies of around 10.3 MMbd currently. Oil and natural gas production in the US is increasing at its fastest pace in 50 years.

The IEA’s outlook on world energy has underscored what recent data have been pointing to: a perceptible decline in the dependence on energy imports for the US.

The US, currently the world’s largest oil consumer using 18.8 MMbd (roughly 22 per cent of global production), imported about 45 per cent of its petroleum (crude as well as products) in 2011. After peaking in 2005, the share of imports in US energy consumption has declined a full 10 percentage points (from over 55 to 45 per cent currently).

Contrary to popular perception, 52 per cent of these imports were sourced from the western hemisphere, with Canada, Venezuela and Mexico supplying 29 per cent, 11 per cent and eight per cent of the US petroleum needs.

Saudi Arabia, the second-largest supplier of oil to the US after Canada, accounted for 14 per cent of US petroleum imports in 2011. The wider Middle East/Persian Gulf accounted for 22 per cent of US petroleum imports in 2011, down by around 25 per cent since 2005.

The US has benefited from large domestic production gains, particularly in shale oil.

This has been made possible by technological innovation in oil drilling such as ‘hydraulic fracturing’ (or ‘fracking’) as well as the opening of hitherto off-limit geologically rich production areas such as Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico (drilling activity in the latter was temporarily halted by President Obama following the oil spill caused from BP’s rig).

What will this trend mean for the global economy? The virtual elimination of the US’s dependence on imported energy in the next one or two decades is being dubbed as a “strategic game-changer”. (The Wall Street Journal carried a piece with the headline ‘Saudi America’ in its Nov 12, 2012 Asian edition.)

According to influential commentators like Niall Ferguson, the celebrated financial historian and Harvard University professor, the abundant availability of indigenous energy could spark a new economic “golden age” for the US.

Uninterrupted supplies of relatively cheaper, and less price-volatile, fossil fuel could galvanise the US manufacturing sector into creating millions of new jobs.

With its productivity advantages, coupled with a gradual convergence of manufacturing wages between developed and fast-growing developing economies, the US could also start becoming attractive once again as a global manufacturing hub, according to Mr Ferguson.

Hence, rather than write off the US economy as a spent force, commentators such as Mr Ferguson believe quite the opposite: that the US will continue to economically rival, and possibly dominate, competitors such as China and India well into the supposedly ‘Asian’ century.

The replacement of imported fuel and the infusion of domestic energy in the US economy will have implications for the US dollar as well, according to this line of reasoning.

According to forecasts by Deutsche Bank, reduced energy dependence would cause the US current account deficit to fall 30 per cent by 2016.

By virtue of these developments, the value of the greenback will appreciate, which will provide an added impetus to declining world oil prices.

The possible reduction of geopolitical risk in global energy markets as a result of America’s energy ‘independence’ resulting in a weaning away from the volatile Middle East, could trigger a sharp reversal in the international oil price. (This scenario assumes, however, that Saudi oil production has not ‘peaked’ between now and then).

By some expert reckoning, the geopolitical risk in current oil prices ranges anywhere from $20 to $30 a barrel.

Such a large reduction in the oil price, should it occur, will exact a heavy toll on the budgets and economies of Middle Eastern oil producers.

Given their demographics, most of these countries will need to continue ‘pump-priming’ their economies for the next decade at least to create jobs and provide social safety nets.

The potential loss of oil income could be a devastating blow to their economies — and for millions of migrant workers who send billions of dollars in remittances to their respective countries.

The other major implication of these potential developments in global energy markets would be on food prices. If world oil prices do indeed trend down for the long run, it will remove the economic incentive for the push into bio-fuels.

This in turn will be welcome news for the world’s poor, as both the stopping of food diversion for bio-fuels combined with lower transport costs will make a significant dent in food prices.

However, if the US economy does not decline into irrelevance by 2030, and is in fact rejuvenated, the global competition for resources will be even more intense — pressuring not only the environment but also prices for non-oil, non-food commodities.

A fascinating global energy landscape is unfolding. Whatever final shape it takes, our continued dependence on energy from fossil fuels will ensure that oil will continue to play a major role in our lives for the foreseeable future.- Dawn/Asia News Network

 By Sakib Sherani
The writer is a former economic adviser to government, and currently heads a macroeconomic consultancy based in Islamabad.

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