Demise of US dollar as world currency

Experts see demise of dollar as world currency

 By DORIS C DUMLAO and MICHELLE V. REMO

IT may only be a matter of time before the US dollar gets replaced as the main currency in international trade, according to economists attending the meeting of the board of governors of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Manila.

Asian Development Bank, ADB

For many years, the dollar “has been almost the sole ‘reserve’ currency,” banked on by the world economy, American economist Jeffrey Sachs said on Thursday in one of the forums held during the ADB annual event. “Going forward, (the dollar) can’t play that role anymore.”

Sachs added that he could not see how the US dollar could remain as the world’s reserve currency when “the role of the United States in the global economy is diminishing.”

Several finance experts echoed Sachs’ sentiment, explaining that, with the greenback expected to weaken further, the world should turn to another currency to facilitate international trade and other commercial transactions.

“Having another reserve currency other than the US dollar is only a matter of time. We don’t know exactly when it will happen, but it will,” Neeraj Swaroop of Standard Chartered Bank said in an interview at the sidelines of the ADB meeting.

In the area of merchandise trading, Swaroop said, countries have actually started to use currencies other than the US dollar.

Sachs also said that some countries could turn to more than one currency in maintaining their foreign exchange reserves.

One currency being considered is the Chinese renminbi (RMB) which, according to HSBC, will inevitably become an international reserve currency.

The renminbi, or yuan, has the potential to become an international reserve currency because China is continuing to post strong growth, becoming an important player in the global economy, Iwan Azis, ADB head for regional integration, said in the same forum.

Also, China is pushing to make the yuan the world’s reserve currency – a move that is seen to hasten the replacement of the US dollar, Azis added.

Already, British banking giant HSBC has mapped out a strategy to be a leading global player in the “renminbi banking” space.

This global strategy has filtered into the Philippine market with the bank’s introduction of RMB-denominated deposit and trade financing facilities, top HSBC officials said in a press briefing on Thursday.

Spencer Lake of HSBC said the renminbi was increasingly becoming an important currency from a trade perspective.

Lake was in Manila as head of the HSBC delegation to the ADB event.

“If it were freely convertible today, it will be the second-largest currency in the world,” Lake said, noting that China has started to liberalise currency systems.

“It’s part of our core strategy to adopt and put in place all of the infrastructure and products to embrace (the renminbi) as a future reserve currency,” Lake said.

Lake said the bank’s strategy appeared to be gaining ground as indicated by a “significant” buildup of the RMB business in Hong Kong, Singapore and other South-East Asian countries.

“The world is getting ready to adopt it as a world currency,” he said. “You’ll see it as a more common language.”

“Reserve” currency, which is currently used to describe the US dollar, is the denomination that accounts for bulk of the foreign exchange reserves of most countries.

A country taps its foreign exchange reserves whenever it needs to pay off the costs of imported products and debts to foreign creditors.

After the United States fell into a recession in 2009, the US dollar began to weaken against emerging market currencies.

The trouble with hanging on to the dollar as the main reserve currency is that it is prone to depreciation given the prevailing economic troubles of the United States.

Depreciation of the US dollar, in turn, may lead to a reduction in the value of a country’s foreign reserves, experts said.

Apart from the yuan, Sachs said other viable currencies that could replace the US dollar were the euro and the Japanese yen. — Philippine Daily Inquirer / Asia News Network   

Trust deficits - US-China Relations

 

The conductor: At the opening ceremony for the U.S.-China Strategic

and Economic Dialogue, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton introduces

an unnamed U.S. official to China's State Councilor Dai Bingguo. Tense

circumstances due to the case of Chen Guangcheng have put all her

diplomatic skills to the test.

Lack of Mutual Sino-U.S. Military Trust a Major Threat

Is Washington encouraging the Philippines and Vietnam to challenge China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea? In this editorial from the Global Times, which reads like a summary of what the U.S. and China have been discussing since Friday, Beijing warns the U.S. not to try to make up for its economic weakness with what it regards as foolish military adventurism.

The China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue pertaining to military cooperation and the visit by China Defense Minister Liang Guanglie to America are important events for military exchanges between the countries. These will create a certain degree of relaxation and ease their long-running military confrontation. Such an atmosphere is essential to improving ties, as it reduces the damage and the significance of the friction over specific matters. [referenceto controversy over Chen Guangcheng].

Military trust should be amassed by resolving disputes over China's sea territory [reference to the South China Sea], and through a process of boosting mutual understanding and adapting to circumstances as they arise. This will help build a foundation for the two nations to avoid misinterpreting military maneuvers by the other.

Thus, both nations must have a clear and accurate understanding of one another. It is unwise for the United States to look down on China as a mere land force that can only play a limited regional role. Because China has interests around the world, it is essential for its military to extend its reach further. Neither should China view the presence of the U.S. military in Asia as illegal or ignore America’s special influence over global security. China must accept the truth that the U.S. is an essential power in the region.

The objective of achieving mutual military trust will never be reached if China seeks to squeeze the United States out to lead Asia on its own, nor if the U.S. seeks to constrain the rise in China's military strength. Luckily, neither Beijing nor Washington has such aims.

Now, as their interests and objectives overlap, each country is in a defensive crouch in relation to the other, giving an opening to brief confrontations. Since the United States has announced its return to Asia, the respective bottom lines of both nations concerning the South China Sea have come close to clashing.

Although analysts still see the possibility of a military conflict in the South China Sea as slim, once the two sides enter into an arms race and making displays of military strength, all efforts to build mutual trust will be ruined.

Competing territorial claims in the South China Sea: China sees

the United States meddling, whereas other nations in the region

regard the U.S. as playing a balancing role. 

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Philippines slammed for hiding poor & slums during ADB event!

 Gov't hit for 'hiding' poor at ADB meet

MANILA, Philippines - Rights groups and unions slammed the Philippines Friday, May 4, after it erected advertising hoardings that hid slum housing from delegates attending a conference on solving poverty in Asia.

A Philippine policeman (R) argues with foreign delegates to the Asian Development Bank board of governors annual meeting (AFP, Ted Aljibe)

The giant boards were put up beside a road taking 4,300 delegates from Manila airport to the Asian Development Bank meeting that began on Wednesday, May 2, blocking the view of an open sewer and shanties.

The boards advertised Philippine tourist attractions as well as the high-level meeting, which proclaimed as its theme "inclusive" growth for Asia, home to some 902 million of the world's poor according to the bank.

The government said it was merely trying to put its "best foot forward" but New York-based Human Rights Watch criticized the boards, saying it sent the message that dire poverty can just be ignored.

"Instead of trying to hide the poor, the Philippine government should be pressing the bank to tackle poverty head on," said Jessica Evans, the group's senior international financial institution advocate.

Union leader Josua Mata, of the Alliance of Progressive Labour-Centro, told AFP the attempt to wall off the poverty was "embarrassing" and the government should turn its focus to creating jobs and building resettlement sites.

President Benigno Aquino's office insisted the effort was not an attempt to hide poverty, which the government says affects a fourth of the population of 95 million.

"It's but natural to fix it (the city) up a bit and I don't think we're violating any human right by trying to put our best foot forward," presidential spokesman Ricky Carandang told reporters.

"We're not trying to whitewash poverty, it's very real," another spokesman, Abigail Valte, said.

Carandang said the government was spending 39 billion pesos ($907 million) this year in cash handouts to help three million poor families to escape poverty. The ADB lent the government $400 million in 2010 for the program.

ADB external relations director Ann Quon defended the hosts.

"We do not think it is the host country's intention to paper over poverty in the Philippines," Quon said.

"In fact, the government has placed poverty reduction at the center of its development agenda." - Agence France-Presse

Philippines erects wall to obscure view of slums

MANILA, Philippines

‘FENCING POVERTY’. A resident pedals his tricycle, locally known as "pedicab", past a wall covered with a tarpaulin poster of the ongoing 45th Annual Board of Governors meeting of the Asian Development Bank at suburban Pasay city south of Manila, Philippines, Thursday May 3, 2012. Behind the wall is the slum along a garbage-strewn creek. (AP and RUEL PEREZ/Radyo Inquirer 990AM)

Delegates attending an international conference in the Philippines capital may not see what they came to discuss: abject poverty.

A makeshift, temporary wall has been erected across a bridge on a road from the airport to downtown Manila that hides a sprawling slum along a garbage-strewn creek.

Presidential spokesman Ricky Carandang defended the wall's installation, saying Thursday "any country will do a little fixing up before a guest comes."

He expressed hope that this week's annual meeting of Asian Development Bank Board of Governors, which includes finance ministers and senior officials from 67 member states, will show the Philippines is open for business.

The lending institition, which is headquartered in its own walled compound in Manila, aims to cut poverty in the Asia-Pacific region.

"We need to show our visitors that Metro Manila is orderly. We owe it to ourselves," said metropolital Manila chief Francis Tolentino.

"I see nothing wrong with beautifying our surroundings. We are not trying to keep the poor out of the picture," he said.

There was no immediate comment from ADB.

The Philippine Communist Party recalled that former first lady Imelda Marcos -- notorious for her ostentatious lifestyle -- was ridiculed for trying to hide squatter colonies. She erected similar whitewashed walls along the route of foreign visitors to the Miss Universe pageant held in Manila in 1974, and other international events.

"The government should face reality. If they don't, how will they know the problem, how will they solve the problem," said Renato Reyes, secretary general of the largest left-wing group Bayan. "By covering the truth, they lose the energy or intention to resolve the problem."

About a third of Manila's 12 million residents live in slums, and a third of 94 million Filipinos live below the poverty line of $1.25 a day. Overall, more than half the population in Asia remains poor.

- The Associated Press 

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