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Showing posts with label Environment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Environment. Show all posts

Sunday, 15 December 2024

A mind outside the brain

 

Proponents say the mind does not exclusively reside in the brain or even the body, but extends into the physical world.

THE notion of the extended mind challenges traditional understandings of cognition by suggesting that mental processes are not confined solely to the brain but are, instead, distributed across the brain, body and environment.

This innovative perspective posits that the tools we use, the spaces we inhabit, and the social interactions we engage in are integral components of our cognitive processes.

Rather than viewing the mind as an isolated entity, the extended mind theory encourages us to consider how our surroundings, technologies and relationships shape our thoughts, memories and problem-solving abilities.

At its core, the concept emphasises that cognition is not merely an internal affair but a dynamic interplay between individual mental states and external factors.

This framework opens up a rich field of inquiry into how we think, learn and interact with the world around us.

By recognising the mind’s extension into the external world, we gain new insights into the nature of intelligence and the ways in which we can enhance our cognitive capabilities.

Roots of theory

The extended mind theory draws from a rich tapestry of philosophical thought.

One of the earliest proponents of ideas resembling the extended mind was American philosopher William James, who emphasised the fluidity of consciousness and the importance of external stimuli in shaping mental states.

Additionally, the works of phenomenologists, particularly Maurice Merleau-ponty, highlighted the embodied nature of cognition, asserting that our understanding of the world is deeply intertwined with our physical presence within it.

Andy Clark and David Chalmers’ contribution was particularly groundbreaking, as they introduced the parity principle, which states that if an external entity functions in the same way as an internal cognitive process, we should consider it part of the cognitive system.

This principle challenges traditional notions of mind and body as separable entities, suggesting instead that our cognitive landscape extends into our interactions with the world, including the tools we use and the social contexts we inhabit.

Despite its innovative approach, the extended mind theory has faced scrutiny from various quarters – critics argue that it risks overextending the boundaries of cognition. They assert that while tools may assist cognitive functions, they do not replace or embody them in the same manner as internal mental processes.

Proponents, however, say that cognitive processes can indeed be distributed, emphasising that the relationship between mind and environment is not merely one of assistance but a dynamic interplay that shapes thought itself.

By acknowledging the role of external elements, proponents assert that we gain a more nuanced understanding of cognition, one that reflects the complexities of human experience in an increasingly interconnected world.

By looking beyond the confines of the brain, we can explore the intricate relationships between mind, body and environment, setting the stage for a deeper investigation into the implications of this theory.

Key areas involved

There are three key areas where the implications of the extended mind theory manifest:

> The environment

The extended mind theory posits that cognitive processes are not confined to the brain but are distributed across the individual and their environment.

This perspective encourages researchers to explore how physical spaces, social contexts, and even the material objects we interact with can shape our cognitive abilities.

For example, studies have shown that the arrangement of a workspace can significantly impact creativity and problem-solving capabilities. Environments rich in stimuli can enhance memory recall, while those lacking in engagement may lead to cognitive stagnation.

Moreover, the concept of affordances i.e. how the environment offers opportunities for action, plays a crucial role in shaping our cognitive experiences.

When individuals interact with their surroundings, they engage in a dynamic exchange that influences their thought processes.

This interaction suggests that understanding cognition requires a holistic view that incorporates environmental factors rather than isolating cognitive functions within the confines of the brain.

> Role of technology

Technological advancements have further expanded the boundaries of the extended mind.

From smartphones to wearable devices, technology has become an integral part of our cognitive tool kit.

These tools not only serve as extensions of our memory – storing information we might otherwise forget – but also enhance our problem-solving abilities by providing instant access to vast amounts of data.

Cognitive scientists are increasingly examining how technology modifies our cognitive processes e.g. using augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality.

However, this increased reliance on technology raises important questions about cognitive offloading – where individuals transfer cognitive tasks to external devices.

While this can lead to increased efficiency, it may also result in a decline in certain cognitive skills, such as memory and attention.

The challenge lies in striking a balance between leveraging technology as an extension of our cognitive capabilities while maintaining the essential skills that underpin our cognitive health.

> Social interactions

The extended mind framework also emphasises the role of social interactions in cognitive processes, highlighting how collective cognition emerges when individuals collaborate and share knowledge.

Cognitive scientists have found that group dynamics can significantly enhance problem-solving abilities, as diverse perspectives contribute to a richer understanding of complex issues.

Collaborative tools, such as shared documents and online communication platforms, facilitate this collective cognition by enabling real-time exchanges of ideas and information.

These interactions not only augment individual cognitive capacities but also create a shared cognitive environment that fosters creativity and innovation.

Research has demonstrated that groups capable of effectively leveraging their collective intelligence can outperform individuals working alone.

Applications in daily life

External resources we can use include:

> Tools to enhance memory and learning

From simple notepads and whiteboards to sophisticated digital applications, these tools serve as extensions of our cognitive capabilities. For instance, writing down information helps to offload cognitive burdens, allowing individuals to process and retain information more effectively.

Smartphones and tablets provide access to vast amounts of information, enabling learners to engage with content in diverse ways e.g. via interactive quizzes or multimedia presentations.

These tools not only facilitate the encoding and retrieval of information but also support active learning strategies, such as spaced repetition, which can lead to deeper understanding and retention.

> Collaborations to solve problems

When individuals come together, their collective cognitive resources can exceed the capabilminds. ities of isolated Teamwork allows for the poolknowledge, ing of skills and perspectives, resulting in enhanced problem-solving and creativity.

For example, brainstorming sessions leverage the diverse insights of team members, leading to innovative solutions that may not have emerged from solitary thinking. Moreover, collaborative tools – such as shared digital platforms and project management software – create environments where ideas can be easily exchanged, thus extending cognitive processes beyond the individual.

> Mindfulness and environmental awareness

Being attuned to our surroundings and recognising how they influence our thoughts and behaviours can lead to more intentional decision-making.

Meditation and nature walks can enhance our awareness of the relationship between our minds and the external world, enabling us to engage with our environments in more meaningful ways.

We can then create environments – be it through decluttering our spaces or surrounding ourselves with inspiring stimuli – that promote focus, creativity, and mental well-being.

Future direction

The concept of the extended mind has significantly reshaped our understanding of cognition, challenging traditional notions that confine mental processes within the skull.

By positing that our cognitive capacities extend into our environments, tools and social interactions, the theory offers a broader perspective on how we think, learn and interact with the world around us.

This paradigm shift has profound implications not only for cognitive science but also for education, technology, and our daily lives.

One promising direction lies in the integration of technology into our cognitive processes.

Researchers might explore how emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and AR, can serve as cognitive extensions, enhancing our problem-solving abilities and decision-making processes.

Future studies could investigate how social networks and collaborative platforms influence group dynamics and collective problem-solving.

By examining the interplay between individual and communal cognition, researchers can better understand how we can harness the power of social interactions to enhance learning and innovation.

Mindfulness and environmental awareness also present fertile ground for exploration.

In conclusion, the theory of the extended mind invites us to reimagine the boundaries of cognition and its myriad influences.

By embracing the extended mind framework, we can unlock new avenues for understanding human cognition, ultimately enriching our experiences and interactions in an increasingly complex world.

By Datuk Dr Nor Ashikin Mokhtar who is a consultant obstetrician and gynaecologist, and a functional medicine practitioner. For further information, email starhealth@ thestar.com.my. The information provided is for educational and communication purposes only, and it should not be construed as personal medical advice. Information published in this article is not intended to replace, supplant or augment a consultation with a health professional regarding the reader’s own medical care. The Star does not give any warranty on accuracy, completeness, functionality, usefulness or other assurances as to the content appearing in this column. The Star disclaims all responsibility for any losses, damage to property or personal injury suffered directly or indirectly from reliance on such information.

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Sunday, 10 September 2023

Invasive Alien Species (IAS) threats to the environment

 

Threat of invasive alien species is increasing worldwide: International study


Spreading awareness: Azah (centre) inspecting a Jom Kenali IAS exhibit at the National Botanic Gardens Shah Alam. — MUHAMAD SHAHRIL ROSLI/The Star

No, this is not science fiction – IAS refers to animals and plants that are introduced accidentally or deliberately into a natural environment where they are not normally found.

They will adversely affect their new environment, including plants, animals and humans.

Agriculture and Food Security Ministry deputy secretary-general (Policy) Datuk Azah Hanim Ahmad said IAS is the second biggest threat to Malaysia’s biodiversity after habitat fragmentation.

So far, IAS has cost millions of ringgit in losses to the country and its food security sector, she added.

“Some examples of the negative effects of IAS on animals are the Nipah virus, which spread in 1998 (following an outbreak at pig farms in Perak) and Lumpy Skin Disease in 2021 due to imported cows.

“For plants, 465ha of coconut plantations in Terengganu were destroyed by rhynchophorus ferrugineus (kumbang merah palma) in 2007, causing RM10mil in losses.

“And between 2003 and 2006, Papaya Dieback disease damaged over one million papaya trees, causing RM200mil in losses,” she said.Currently, she said, the Bacterial Panicle Blight, an exotic plant pest, is attacking padi fields.

“Parthenium hysterophorus (rumpai parthenium) can cause allergic reactions in humans and farm animals while Salvinia molesta (rumpai salvinia) can affect irrigation systems,” she said at the launch of the ‘2023 Public Awareness Programme: Let’s Get To Know About IAS (Jom Kenali IAS)’ at the National Botanical Gardens Shah Alam yesterday.

Currently, out of the 138 IAS identified worldwide, 64 are present in Malaysia, Azah said.

Of these, 17 are plants, 19 are animals and 28 are aquatic.

She added that due to this threat, the ministry has to continuously inspect and conduct damage control on crops and animals, which costs money and also contributes to pollution.

“This is due to the IAS management team having to use chemical pesticides and cutting down trees, which affects the productivity of the farming sector.

“This is why awareness among the public is important and we hope that today’s programme can make a big impact on the sustainability of the country’s biodiversity,” she said.

To help protect the country’s biodiversity, the government established the National IAS Committee in 2016 to manage, coordinate and prevent all IAS-related issues in Malaysia.

Meanwhile, the ministry’s Fisheries Biosecurity Division senior director Yeo Moi Eim said there are 28 types of aquatic life that have been gazetted and categorised as “prohibited fish species for import into Malaysia”. These include piranha, salmon, trout and dragon fish (arapaima).

She said the department is currently in the process of gazetting the Mekong red tail catfish (baung ekor merah Mekong), which is considered an apex predator in rivers and can weigh up to 40kg, as prohbited for import.

“The Mekong red tail catfish can be found in Perak, Pahang and Selangor rivers. It eats fish and prawns as well as their eggs, and this is harming our marine biodiversity.

“It originates from the Mekong River, but somehow managed to find its way here.

“We believe this was due to natural disasters such as floods where the fish can migrate from one place to another, which shows another impact of climate change,” said Yeo.

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Friday, 21 October 2022

China’s quality development is profoundly smooth, steady

 


China's economy is stable and on the rise.

During the ongoing 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), an official in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission said at a press conference that judging from the current situation, China's economy rebounded significantly in the third quarter, and from a global perspective, China's economic performance is still remarkable. Although affected by changes in the domestic and external environment, there are still some outstanding contradictions and problems in the current economic operation. However, China has a population of more than 1.4 billion and coupled with basic conditions such as a complete industrial system and a comprehensive industrial chain, "China's economic stabilization and improvement will be further consolidated."

We have noticed that the assessments that some well-established international agencies made recently on China's economy coincide with China's own remarks. A well-known consulting agency said that most preliminary economic data indicated that China's economy recovered in the third quarter. Experts from the Economist Intelligence Unit also believe that compared with the economic difficulties of various countries in the world, "China has some unique advantages at the moment," which enables China's economy to maintain positive growth even when faced with great internal and external pressure.

Of course, when people pay attention to and discuss China, there are also negative and pessimistic arguments, and some even regard China's development and security, government and market, openness and independence as contradictory to each other. Part of it comes from taking wishful thinking as fact, because it has long been "standard configurations" for some US and Western public opinion to downplay China; at the same time, part of it results from looking at "speed" with the outdated thinking and vision, without understanding the deep logic of China's high-quality development.

If we observe the Chinese economy from the perspective of quality development, we will look through the complicated and indistinguishable superficial information to see the ongoing evolution and the improvement of the Chinese economy. In recent years, although the growth rate of China's economy has declined a bit compared with some periods in the past, its economic structure has been continuously optimized and its development momentum has been enhancing. In particular, the development speed of high-tech industries is equal to doubling the average development speed of the entire industry. Some major technological fields have made their ways to the global frontier, transformed by innovation-driven factors instead of the factors such as land, capital and labor in the past. At the same time, the energy consumption per unit of GDP has continued to decline. The sky is bluer, the mountains are greener, and the water is clearer. Although facing some temporary challenges and difficulties, China has enhanced its ability to overcome difficulties in its economy. 

Illustration: Chen Xia/GT

Illustration: Chen Xia/GT 

The report to the 20th CPC National Congress stressed that "To build a modern socialist country in all respects, we must, first and foremost, pursue high-quality development." If the Chinese people are to live a better life and the Chinese nation is to realize its great rejuvenation, maintaining economic growth is of course very necessary. At the same time, the Chinese people have a broader and more comprehensive understanding of growth. And high-quality development is a new concept in which "innovation is the primary driver, coordination is an endogenous trait, eco-friendly growth prevails, openness to the world is the only way, and shared growth is the ultimate goal." This is also China's proactive pursuit of following the laws of economic development, adapting to changes in major social contradictions, and maintaining sustainable and sound economic development.

Compared with the past, China now puts more emphasis on maintaining national security, because the global security situation today has become more complicated, especially when the US is fanning flames and creating geopolitical crises everywhere and treating China as its No.1 strategic competitor. Against the backdrop of a sudden increase in external risks and a more insecure world, where can development come from without the overall favorable environment of national security? Some US and Western public opinions have deliberately put development on the opposite side of security, simply because in their hearts, they do not want China to be secure, nor do they want China to grow and develop.

The giant ship of China has always pointed to a determined direction, never going off its course nor turning around. In the new era, the CPC, in accordance with the changes in reality at home and abroad, has taken precautions and foresight to extend and develop the experience summed up in the past decades, and then has established a new development concept and strategic plan, which is coherent and consistent with the past development direction.

One thing that is absolutely certain is that China cannot copy the Western model for its development, and anyone expecting China to follow that path is bound to feel disappointed and will complain that "China has changed." But in fact it's not China that has changed. Instead, it is that they have made a wrong judgment from the very beginning; it can even be said that those who have been bad-mouthing China are disappointed, which just shows that China has done the right thing.

Although China is already the second largest economy in the world, its per capita income is still far behind that of developed countries, which means greater economic growth space.

Implementing the spirit of the report to the 20th CPC National Congress, insisting that development is the "first priority" and high-quality development as the "primary task," we have ample reasons to maintain confidence in the Chinese economy. 

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Tuesday, 21 December 2021

Will it rain or will it shine? Forecasting the weather amid climate change, How extreme weather may lead to food shortages

The Meteorological Department’s weather forecasts are more vital than ever as Malaysia struggles to cope with severe weather events caused by climate change.

Taman Sri Muda in Seksyen 25, Shah Alam, was flooded on Saturday afternoon due to non-stop rain from Friday night. 

 

CLIMATE change is really hitting home this rainy season in Malaysia.

A higher average temperature from a warmer climate means more water is being evaporated from land and sea, which leads to more extreme precipitation. In other words, the warmer it gets in Malaysia, the more rain we’ll get – just as we’re currently experiencing.

But how much more rain are we actually getting?

According to the Malaysian Meteorological

Department – better known as Metmalaysia now – average yearly temperatures between 1981 and 2020 have trended higher at a rate of 0.02ºc every year, which translates to 0.2ºc every decade.

Metmalaysia director-general Muhammad Helmi Abdullah says a rise in 1ºc could translate into a corresponding 7% increase in rainfall. This is according to the Sixth Assessment Report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (released in August this year) and Malaysia’s Third National Communication to the panel.

“There has been an increase in the trend of average yearly temperatures although it’s not very drastic. But it can still have an impact on the weather in our country,” he says.

An increase in rainfall, says Muhammad Helmi, can be linked to more extreme thunderstorms which can lead to more frequent flash floods and landslides as well as water and land spouts, and hail.

He points to the 2006/2007 and 2014 massive floods in Johor and Kelantan respectively as examples of incidents of such extreme rainfalls.

Based on Metmalaysia’s observations, Muhammad Helmi says the highest average yearly temperature recorded in the country was in 2016 at 27.84ºc, which was 0.87ºc above normal.

This is followed by 1998, 2019 and 2020, he says. In fact, based on records between 1951 and last year as provided by Met-malaysia, nine of the 10 hottest years in the country have occurred in the past 20 years since 2000, except for 1998 (see graphics with Metmalaysia stats).

“The maximum highest temperature ever recorded in Malaysia was 40.1ºc in Chuping, Perlis, on April 9, 1998,” says Muhammad Helmi.

That year saw one of the most powerful El Ninos in recorded history, during which scientists say air temperature hiked up by 1.5ºc compared with the 0.25ºc usually associated with that global weather phenomenon.

“The rise in temperature can also cause heat waves and haze to become more extreme,” adds Muhammad Helmi.

Malaysians, he says, must realise that natural disasters from the effects of climate change are now unavoidable.

“But with knowledge, planning and early preparation, we can minimise the impact on mortality and property damage.

“Thus, members of the public must be prepared to face any possibility of natural disasters and always get the latest weather update by Metmalaysia in their areas.”

From paper charts to satellite images

With floods and hurricanes increasing, getting the latest weather updates out has become vital – lifesaving, even, when it gives uniformed personnel time to deploy in areas facing disaster. Metmalaysia has had to move with the times over the years to achieve this.

When Muhammad Helmi first joined the country’s Meteorological Department back in the 1980s, predicting the weather was about looking at the charts. Back then, the country didn’t have its own weather forecast models and needed to rely on those produced by other countries to try and predict whether it would be rain or shine the next day.

Muhammad Helmi remembers having to study details of the charts splayed out on tables or pinned up on boards.

“At that time, we had to plot the daily weather by hand,” reminisces the 57-year-old, who was posted to the then Subang International Airport, one of the more important places among his first few postings.

Thankfully, modern technology means predicting the daily weather doesn’t have to be that painstakingly arduous now.

Malaysia now has its own weather forecast models and live satellite images can be displayed on gigantic electronic boards, while staff members work with computer screens and sophisticated seismographs.

When The Star visited Metmalaysia at its headquarters on Jalan Sultan, Petaling Jaya, recently, the images from Japan’s Himawari and China’s Feng Yun satellites were tracking a red dot – a sign of possible inclement weather – across different shades of the blues of the Indian Ocean.

First set up in 1958 as the Malaya Meteorological Service Office at the Simpang Airport in Kuala Lumpur – also known as the Sungai Besi Airbase – the office has undergone various changes as its role expanded.

Originally parked under the Transport Ministry as the Meteorological Service Malaysia in 1965 following Singapore’s departure from the federation, it was shifted to the Science, Technology and Environment Ministry in 1984.

Today, the department’s forecast office sits in an unassuming white building on a site that it has occupied since 1968, from where it keeps an eye out for everything from earthquakes and tsunamis to rain and wind, and even the ultraviolet index and heatwaves during the dry season.

Currently, Metmalaysia has a network of 247 automatic weather stations and 183 manual observation stations to detect data like rainfall, temperature, wind direction and speed, and atmospheric pressure. There are also additional stations to monitor acid deposition, the intensity of surface ultraviolet rays and background particulate matter, surface ozone, and aerosol concentrations.

Despite the advent of technology, though, work hasn’t necessarily become easier for the department, on which much of the country’s agricultural, plantation, aviation and even tourism sectors depend.

Winds of change

During our interview, Muhammad Helmi admits that with climate change, the department’s role has become more onerous and the forecasting work more challenging.

Typically, it’s harder to forecast the weather for a country with a tropical climate like Malaysia than, say, temperate countries like Japan and those in Europe which have four seasons. But it is even more challenging when climate change is wreaking havoc with established weather and wind patterns, much like what is happening with our monsoons.

“We can see a drastic change to our weather, like stronger thunderstorms and more occurrences of phenomena such as water spouts, land spouts and even hail, which used to be rare in the past.

“There’s also been an increase in the number of extreme weather events – an increase in both intensity and frequency,” says Muhammad Helmi.

“This has given rise to new challenges for Metmalaysia because knowledge of such events is currently quite limited.

“The main challenge for us is to determine when and where such high impact or extreme weather events will occur,” he explains.

He adds that the department is still studying the indicators or signs that may lead them to better forecast when and where such extreme weather events are likely to take place.

“An example of such an indicator would be wind patterns. We all know that between August and September this year, the southwest monsoon was weak, a situation known as a monsoon break.

“When a monsoon break happens, the wind blows from various directions and is rather weak, causing many thunderstorms to occur.

“The south-west monsoon was supposed to be a drier period for us. Instead, it was the opposite and we had many thunderstorms that even resulted in flash floods, including what happened in Yan recently,” he explains.

In mid-august, six people died in a landslide and over 1,000 more were affected by severe flash floods following heavy downpours in the district in Kedah.

The rains were so heavy that a water column came gushing down the side of Gunung Jerai while images and video clips of muddied roads, inundated cars, fallen trees and drenched residents went viral on social media.

Too darn hot

While scientists and forecasters agree that global warming is causing the evaporation of more moisture from land and sea, which translates into heavier rainfall, they are still scrambling to better predict extreme weather events.

To better spot indicators that can lead up to these extreme events in the future, Metmalaysia has embarked on a series of measures, including upgrading 60 existing manual observation stations to automatic as well as building new ones, and incorporating extra training for its staff.

Eight new radar stations are slated for completion next year – at Kuala Gula in Perak; Rompin, Temerloh and Cameron Highlands in Pahang; Marang in Terengganu; Kuala Krai in Kelantan; Sibu in Sarawak; and Tawau in Sabah.

“Hopefully, with these new radar stations we will be able to monitor and observe the weather for almost the entirety of Malaysia,” says Muhammad Helmi.

More importantly, the department is in the midst of developing a system capable of forecasting weather a few months in advance or giving projections even up to the year 2100.

This, says Muhammad Helmi, will allow national disaster agencies and water resources management to better plan and take early action in case of floods or droughts.

“The projection of up to 2100 based on the scaled down models of CMIP6 and shared socioeconomic pathways will enable better and more accurate simulations of how our country’s climate will look like in the future,” he says.

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, or CIMP, which is now in phase six, is a framework which allows climate scientists around the world to collaborate and improve their knowledge on climate change. Coupled models are computer-based models of the Earth’s climate in which the atmosphere, oceans, land or ice are “coupled” together to interact in simulations.

Asked if Metmalaysia will consider recruiting the help of climate scientists to better understand and predict extreme events, Muhammad Helmi says it’s still best to ensure capacity building for its own staff.

“Upon acceptance into the service, our staff members have to undergo a year of training before being posted to a meteorological office for another year or even a few years.

“They will have to work at this meteorological office for at least a year so that they will know what the weather in that particular area is like during the different monsoons.

“They know the weather and climate of this country better because they have been in the field for so long,” he says, adding that the department has recently had one of its officers recognised as a subject matter expert under the civil service scheme.

“We have four more officers on the same career pathway,” he adds.

Moving on up

There are also plans to relocate Metmalaysia’s headquarters away from the narrow, busy street it now shares with the Road Transport Department and the Chemistry Department in PJ to a site in Labu near the KL International Airport by 2024 or 2025.

But even that comes with its own set of problems unique to the department, which operates 24/7 for 365 days every year.

The particular nature of forecasting, stresses Muhammad Helmi, means that Metmalaysia can’t afford to shut down its operations in the country for even one minute.

“Earthquakes and weather changes happen all the time. Much of the department’s operations must already be set up at the new location for, say, a month before we can actually move to the new site.

“We are currently holding workshops to determine our needs at the new building,” he says.

Meanwhile, rain or shine, or hail and hurricanes for that matter, Malaysians must keep up with Metmalaysia’s daily forecasts now that unpredictable weather is the norm. 

- The Star Malaysia21 Dec 2021by SIM LEOI LEOI lifestyle@thestar.com.my 

Forecasting the weather amid climate change


— Photos: IZZRAFIQ alias/the star muhammad Helmi explaining a satellite image at metmalaysia headquarters.

 

The maximum highest temperature ever recorded in Malaysia was 40.1ºc in Chuping, Perlis, on April 9, 1998,” says Muhammad Helmi

That year saw one of the most powerful El Ninos in recorded history, during which scientists say air temperature hiked up by 1.5ºc compared with the 0.25ºc usually associated with that global weather phenomenon.

“The rise in temperature can also cause heat waves and haze to become more extreme,” adds Muhammad Helmi.

Malaysians, he says, must realise that natural disasters from the effects of climate change are now unavoidable.

“But with knowledge, planning and early preparation, we can minimise the impact on mortality and property damage.

“Thus, members of the public must be prepared to face any possibility of natural disasters and always get the latest weather update by Metmalaysia in their areas.”

From paper charts to satellite images

With floods and hurricanes increasing, getting the latest weather updates out has become vital – lifesaving, even, when it gives uniformed personnel time to deploy in areas facing disaster. Metmalaysia has had to move with the times over the years to achieve this.

When Muhammad Helmi first joined the country’s Meteorological Department back in the 1980s, predicting the weather was about looking at the charts. Back then, the country didn’t have its own weather forecast models and needed to rely on those produced by other countries to try and predict whether it would be rain or shine the next day.

Muhammad Helmi remembers having to study details of the charts splayed out on tables or pinned up on boards.

“At that time, we had to plot the daily weather by hand,” reminisces the 57-year-old, who was posted to the then Subang International Airport, one of the more important places among his first few postings.

Thankfully, modern technology means predicting the daily weather doesn’t have to be that painstakingly arduous now.

Malaysia now has its own weather forecast models and live satellite images can be displayed on gigantic electronic boards, while staff members work with computer screens and sophisticated seismographs.

When The Star visited Metmalaysia at its headquarters on Jalan Sultan, Petaling Jaya, recently, the images from Japan’s Himawari and China’s Feng Yun satellites were tracking a red dot – a sign of possible inclement weather – across different shades of the blues of the Indian Ocean.

First set up in 1958 as the Malaya Meteorological Service Office at the Simpang Airport in Kuala Lumpur – also known as the Sungai Besi Airbase – the office has undergone various changes as its role expanded.

Originally parked under the Transport Ministry as the Meteorological Service Malaysia in 1965 following Singapore’s departure from the federation, it was shifted to the Science, Technology and Environment Ministry in 1984.

Today, the department’s forecast office sits in an unassuming white building on a site that it has occupied since 1968, from where it keeps an eye out for everything from earthquakes and tsunamis to rain and wind, and even the ultraviolet index and heatwaves during the dry season.

Currently, Metmalaysia has a network of 247 automatic weather stations and 183 manual observation stations to detect data like rainfall, temperature, wind direction and speed, and atmospheric pressure. There are also additional stations to monitor acid deposition, the intensity of surface ultraviolet rays and background particulate matter, surface ozone, and aerosol concentrations.

Despite the advent of technology, though, work hasn’t necessarily become easier for the department, on which much of the country’s agricultural, plantation, aviation and even tourism sectors depend.

Winds of change

During our interview, Muhammad Helmi admits that with climate change, the department’s role has become more onerous and the forecasting work more challenging.

Typically, it’s harder to forecast the weather for a country with a tropical climate like Malaysia than, say, temperate countries like Japan and those in Europe which have four seasons. But it is even more challenging when climate change is wreaking havoc with established weather and wind patterns, much like what is happening with our monsoons.

“We can see a drastic change to our weather, like stronger thunderstorms and more occurrences of phenomena such as water spouts, land spouts and even hail, which used to be rare in the past.

“There’s also been an increase in the number of extreme weather events – an increase in both intensity and frequency,” says Muhammad Helmi.

“This has given rise to new challenges for Metmalaysia because knowledge of such events is currently quite limited.

“The main challenge for us is to determine when and where such high impact or extreme weather events will occur,” he explains.

He adds that the department is still studying the indicators or signs that may lead them to better forecast when and where such extreme weather events are likely to take place.

“An example of such an indicator would be wind patterns. We all know that between August and September this year, the southwest monsoon was weak, a situation known as a monsoon break.

“When a monsoon break happens, the wind blows from various directions and is rather weak, causing many thunderstorms to occur.

“The south-west monsoon was supposed to be a drier period for us. Instead, it was the opposite and we had many thunderstorms that even resulted in flash floods, including what happened in Yan recently,” he explains.

In mid-august, six people died in a landslide and over 1,000 more were affected by severe flash floods following heavy downpours in the district in Kedah.

The rains were so heavy that a water column came gushing down the side of Gunung Jerai while images and video clips of muddied roads, inundated cars, fallen trees and drenched residents went viral on social media.

Too darn hot

While scientists and forecasters agree that global warming is causing the evaporation of more moisture from land and sea, which translates into heavier rainfall, they are still scrambling to better predict extreme weather events.

To better spot indicators that can lead up to these extreme events in the future, Metmalaysia has embarked on a series of measures, including upgrading 60 existing manual observation stations to automatic as well as building new See page 3 

 

How extreme weather may lead to food shortages 

        

IN a world with an increasing human population, climate change may have a serious impact on our ability to grow enough food. — Bloomberg abundance at a fresh fruit stall in a London wholesale market – but how long will it last as the climate crisis continues wreaking havoc on global weather and threatening food production?

Research from as far back as 2007 found that around 30% of year-to-year fluctuations in tonnes of crops grown per hectare were due to changes in the climate. It is remarkable that under these circumstances the global agricultural system has managed to remain fairly robust, and that major food shortages have been rare.

On the other hand, food prices in recent decades have become increasingly volatile. While there are many influences on food prices – including crop yield, weather variations, international trade, speculation in food commodity markets, and land management practices – mostly open trading systems have allowed food shortages in some places to be offset by surpluses and increased production elsewhere.

However, now that the world seems to be moving toward more trade barriers at a time when climate change is intensifying, these stabilising effects may start to fail. Prices could

Without fertiliser, us farm yields would have fallen drastically as soil quality has been decreasing. However, poorer parts of the world do not have the resources to compensate for barren land with fertilisers in the same way. —AFP rise sharply, putting pressure on poor countries and on the budgets of poor people in rich countries.

While crop growth per hectare has increased considerably over the last 50 years, recently the rate of this growth has slowed compared with previous decades. Recent research suggests that up to 30% of the expected increase in growth of European crops has been cancelled out by adverse weather.

But it is worrying that the most pronounced changes tend to be in countries such as those in sub-saharan Africa, including South Africa, that are at high risk of climate impacts on food availability and affordability.

This is particularly clear in the case of barley, maize, millet, pulses, rice and wheat. It seems that the countries most at risk of food shortages are also worst affected by rising temperatures. This seems to bear out the finding from the world’s premier climate science advisers, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that the higher average global temperatures and more extreme weather events associated with climate change will reduce the reliability of food production. The latest IPCC report, released in August, also supports this conclusion.

Another change noted by the IPCC is how rising heat and rainfall associated with climate change is increasingly degrading land, making soil less productive. This is due to the loss of soil nutrients and organic matter and has negative effects on crop yields.

In addition, accelerating rises in sea levels will compound these negative impacts by increasing saltwater intrusions and permanently flooding crop land.

Recent modelling of soil loss in wheat and maize fields shows large variations between tropical climate regions and regions with a large proportion of flat and dry land, with losses ranging from less than 1 tonne per hectare in central Asia to 100 tonnes per hectare in South-east Asia.

The strong impact of climate and topography on simulated water erosion is clearly shown in the five largest wheat and maize producing countries: in Brazil, China and India, where a large proportion of cropland is in tropical areas, water erosion is relatively high, while in Russia and the United States annual median values are much lower.

However, historically poor management of lands in Europe and the United States has been largely remedied through the increased use of chemical fertilisers and irrigation, which have been able to offset a massive amount of soil degradation.

For example, one study has shown that, without fertiliser, US yields of corn over the past 100 years would have fallen from around seven to a little over one tonne per hectare due to soil quality decreasing. However, fertiliser has enabled yields to be broadly maintained, although at an annual cost to farmers of over Us$0.5bil (Rm2.1bil).

These results have worrying implications for poorer parts of the world where soil quality is decreasing, but which do not have the resources to compensate for this with fertilisers. And the results become more worrying still if this is exacerbated by climate change.

Many aspects of land management for food production have changed in recent decades, including growing different crops, or the same crops in different places, in response to increased temperatures. The overall result of these changes has been greatly increased food yields in many parts of the world, and land managers may be expected to adapt their strategies for changes in the climate.

But if climate change results in simultaneous failure of major crops such as wheat, maize and soybeans in two or more major breadbasket regions (the areas of the world that produce most food), then the risks of price rises making food too expensive in poorer parts of the world could become acute. – The Conversation

- By PAUL EKINS Paul Ekins is professor of Resources and Environmental Policy at University College London. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

 

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