World economy set to feel trade war pain in 2019

https://youtu.be/mK3cyxLRxc0 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-12-26/with-stocks-on-brink-of-bear-market-is-it-time-to-buy-video

Data points to slowing exports, companies warn of ongoing disruption

While 2018 was the year trade wars broke out, 2019 will be the year the global economy feels the pain. Bloomberg’s Global Trade Tracker is softening amid a fading rush to front-load export orders ahead of threatened tariffs. And volumes are tipped to slow further even as the U.S. and China seek to resolve their trade spat, with companies warning of ongoing disruption.

Read more: A Fragile Truce Keeps Global Trade on Edge

Already there are casualties. GoPro Inc. will move most of its U.S.-bound camera production out of China by next summer, becoming one of the first brand-name electronics makers to take such action, while FedEx Corp. recently slashed its profit forecast and pared international air-freight capacity.

“Any kind of interference with commerce is going to be a tax on the economy,” said Hamid Moghadam, chief executive officer of San Francisco-based Prologis Inc., which owns almost 4,000 logistics facilities globally. “And the world economy is probably going to slow down as a result of it.”

Financial markets have already taken a hit. Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates that the trade war news has accounted for a net drop of 6 percent in the S&P 500 this year. China’s stock market has lost $2 trillion in value in 2018 and is languishing in a bear market.

Recent data underscore concerns that trade will be a drag on American growth next year. U.S. consumers are feeling the least optimistic about the future economy in a year, while small business optimism about economic improvement fell to a two-year low and companies expect smaller profit gains in 2019.

Synchronized Slowdown
Global growth is set to decelerate in coming years

https://youtu.be/EaOmPx4sGOw
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

What Our Economists Say...

For the world economy, the threat of trade war has dissipated, not disappeared. Three risks stand out. First, 90 days of talks between China and the U.S. might end in failure, with higher tariffs following. Second, even without an increase in tariffs, front-loading of exports in 2018 will reduce shipments in 2019. Finally, looking beyond the trade war, early warning signs from PMI surveys to FedEx profit warnings flag a softening of demand. --Tom Orlik, Bloomberg Economics

The International Monetary Fund forecasts trade volumes will slow to 4 percent in 2019 from 4.2 percent this year and 5.2 percent in 2017. They warn that trade barriers have become more pronounced.

Europe isn’t insulated either. While Germany’s key machinery sector will produce a record 228 billion euros ($260 billion) this year, the trade disputes are among reasons why growth will slow, according to the VDMA industry association. Output will increase about 5 percent in real terms in 2018, the most since 2011, before growth slows to 2 percent next year.

Then there’s the risk of the U.S. placing tariffs on auto imports from Europe and Japan, a move that would damage relations between some of the world’s biggest economies. The arrest of Huawei Technologies Co. Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou illustrates the risk of unexpected developments that can quickly inflame already tense relations.

"‘Trade divergence’ since 2018 and the ‘Tariffs-Limbo’ into 2019 are likely to keep a high degree of uncertainty and continue to have an impact on trade and investment plans," New York-based Citigroup global markets economist Cesar Rojas wrote in a recent note.

The critical question is whether Washington and Beijing can strike a deal by the March 1 deadline. If they succeed, a cloud will be lifted off the world economy. But for now, the threat that tensions will linger is a brake on business expansion plans, and thereby the global economy.

Dippin’ Dots LLC is among those caught in the crossfire. The U.S.-based maker of ice cream and other frozen products spent three years breaking into the Chinese market and opened its first stores in the country this year, only to pay double-digit tariffs on imported dairy products. CEO Scott Fischer said if the U.S.-China talks fail and additional tariffs are added, he’d be forced to rethink strategy, supply chains, and where in the world he expands.

“From an entrepreneur’s perspective, our question is how long will this continue?" Fischer said. “It’s hard to plan business in this environment."

— Bloomberg With assistance by Sveinung Sleire, and Christian Wienberg

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  Jerome Powell Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

Currency Traders on Front Line as Markets Stay Wary of U.S. Risk

The final week of 2018 could prove tumultuous for investors as holiday-thinned trading combines with a growing array of pressures on markets.

Traders in the $5.1 trillion-a-day currency market were among the first to respond to a partial U.S. government shutdown and a report that President Donald Trump has discussed firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The dollar slipped against its Group-of-10 peers, while the yen, seen by many as a haven, gained for a seventh day.

Treasury futures climbed in early Asian hours before paring their advance. Cash bonds trading was shut in Asia due to a holiday in Japan, the first in a week that will see a number of closures across major markets.

Sentiment in global financial markets has already taken a beating with the S&P 500 Index just recording its worst week in seven years. Increased uncertainty over the leadership of the Fed could add to turmoil along with a partial shutdown of the U.S. government, although assurances from U.S. Treasury Steven Mnuchin about liquidity and the future of the central bank chief may ease some concerns.

The Treasuries yield curve last week moved closer than ever to its first post-crisis inversion and the rally in safer assets dragged the 10-year yield below 2.75 percent for the first time since April. However, given that much of the upheaval is emanating from the U.S., it is not entirely clear whether Treasuries, and also the U.S. dollar, will act as reliable havens should Powell’s leadership face a genuine threat.

Societe Generale SA’s head of U.S. rates strategy Subadra Rajappa said she thinks a change in Fed leadership is “extremely unlikely,” though she’s not ruling out the possibility of the president persuading Powell to “resign.”

“If it comes to that, given the backdrop of the recent government shutdown, investors might be less inclined to treat Treasuries as safe haven assets,” she said by email. “A change in Fed leadership will likely rattle the already-fragile financial markets and further tighten financial conditions.”

Market participants are generally of the view that Powell will not be fired, and senior administration officials say Trump recognizes he doesn’t have that authority. But even continued exploration of the possibility could make for a volatile week.

The market response to a material threat to the Fed’s independence would be complicated, according to Steve Englander, head of global G-10 FX research and North America macro strategy for Standard Chartered Bank. He said near-term uncertainty over the process and politics in a fluid situation would weigh on equity prices and bond yields. The dollar, he said, would likely face multiple opposing forces, but the “near-term response is likely negative on the risk that U.S. economic policy becomes more erratic.”

Kitchen Sink

The Bloomberg Dollar Index was up more than 4 percent in 2018 at the end of last week and is close to its highest level in a year and a half, while the Japanese yen surged around 2 percent last week versus the greenback.

Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York, is among the few eyeing the strained relations between the president and the Fed chair with equanimity.

The stock market “has discounted everything but the kitchen sink, including the loss of a Fed Chair who hasn’t been in office for even a year yet,” he said by email.

Given that the Fed is already close to the end of its hiking cycle, the markets won’t melt down if Powell leaves office, according to Rupkey. “They already did,” he said.

Those on the front lines of this week’s opening trade say markets are on a knife edge.

Mind the Machines

“If equity markets fall further, they’re going to set off machine-based selling,” said Saed Abukarsh, the co-founder of Dubai-based hedge fund Ark Capital Management. “The other risk is that experienced traders are on holiday, so the ones left will be trigger happy with every new headline.”

“I can’t see buyers stepping into this market to stem off any selling pressure until January,” said Abukarsh. “So if you need to adjust your books for the year-end with any meaningful size, you’re going to have to pay for it.”

Trump’s two-year stock honeymoon ends with hunt for betrayer

https://youtu.be/co5RmV_AoUs width="640"

Nobody was happier to take credit for surging stocks than Donald Trump, who touted and tweeted each leg up. Now the bull is on life support and the search for its killer is on.

And while many on Wall Street share the president’s frustration with the man atop his markets enemies list, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, they say Trump himself risks making things worse with too much aggression when equities are one bad session away from a bear market.

“You would think that after coming off of the worst week for the markets since the financial crisis in 2008, he would look to create some stability,” said Chuck Cumello, CEO of Essex Financial Services. “Instead we get the opposite, with this headline and more self-induced uncertainty. This coming from a president who when the market goes up views it as a barometer of his success.”

U.S. stock futures whipsawed Monday and were little changed after swinging from a 0.9 percent gain to a loss of the same magnitude. The equity market closes at 1 p.m. in New York ahead of the Christmas holiday.

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Attempts by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to reassure markets that Powell wouldn’t be ousted appeared to have largely removed that as an immediate concern for traders, but the secretary’s tweet Sunday that he called top executives from the six largest U.S. banks to check on their liquidity and lending infrastructure added to anxiety.

To be sure, equities remain solidly higher since Trump took office. Even with its 17 percent drop over the last three months, the S&P 500 has risen 18 percent since Election Day. The Nasdaq Composite Index is up 25 percent with dividends. True, volatility has jumped to a 10-month high, but market turbulence was significantly worse for three long stretches under Barack Obama.

The S&P 500 slumped 7.1 percent last week and the Nasdaq Composite Index spiraled into a bear market. As of 2:31 p.m. in Hong Kong, futures on the S&P 500 were up 0.6 percent while Nasdaq 100 contracts added 0.5 percent.

While Trump seems to have found his villain in Powell, blame is a dubious concept in financial markets, as anyone who has tried to explain the current rout can attest.

Along with the Fed chairman, everything from rising bond yields, trade tariffs, falling bond yields, Brexit, tech valuations and Italian finances have been implicated in the downdraft that has erased $5 trillion from American equity values in three months.

Whatever’s behind it, nothing has been able to stop it. And while many on Wall Street credit the president for helping jump-start the market after taking office, they say he should look in the mirror to see another person creating stress for it right now.

“Trump was gloating how much good he had done for the economy and the market. Now he’s blaming Powell for the decline instead of himself,” said Rick Bensignor, founder of Bensignor Group and a former strategist for Morgan Stanley. “Half his key staff has been fired or quit. The markets are off for a variety of reasons, but most of them have Trump behind them.”

If Trump is bent on getting rid of Powell, there may be ways of doing it that don’t risk kicking a volatile market into hysteria, said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, a senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.

“It doesn’t have to be firing, it could be someone else taking Powell’s job. That could be a net positive for the markets,” Hellwig said. “A friendly change in the head of the Fed may cause some turbulence short-term but it may be offset with the markets repricing the risk associated with two rate hikes in 2019.”

For now, the turmoil shows no signs of letting up. In the Nasdaq 100, home to tech giants like Apple Inc. and Amazon.com, there have been 17 sessions with losses greater than 1.5 percent this quarter, the most since 2009. Small caps are down 26 percent from a record, while the Nasdaq Biotech Index has dropped at least 1 percent on seven straight days, the longest streak since its inception in 1993.

It’s been a long time since anyone in the U.S. has lived through this protracted a decline. Including Trump.

”It’s impossible to tease out what the proximate causes are,” said Kevin Caron, a senior portfolio manager at Washington Crossing Advisors. “The normal ebb and flow of financial markets are all part of the mix. It’s impossible just to point to the chairman as the only input.”

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Unfolding future innovation: a look ahead at 2019's tech trends

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 All the ways life could change with technology in 2019.

FASTER data connectivity, smartphones with a bold new look and more reasons to cheer for the national team at a sporting event? These are just some reasons we predict 2019 is going to be another exciting year in technology.

Bend and not break 

We could be getting our hands on a foldable smartphone by Samsung very soon – the South Korean tech giant gave the world a glimpse of a working protoype at the Samsung Developer Conference in November.

According to Justin Denison, the senior vice-president of mobile product marketing at Samsung, the prototype measured at 18.5cm diagonally. The new design will give users the experience of having a pocket size device – with a 4.6in screen when folded – that can be unfolded to reveal a bigger ­tablet-sized 7.4in screen, a feature Samsung has dubbed the Infinty Flex Display.

A foldable phone by Samsung is coming our way in 2019. — AP

Sources told South Korea-based Yonhap News Agency that Samsung is planning to officially launch the device, tentatively known as the Galaxy F as Samsung has not given it an official name yet, at an event in March. Other companies looking to release a foldable smartphone include Huawei and Sony.

Samsung’s foldable device with Infinity Flex Display is a smartphone model that features a tablet-sized screen when unfolded and a smaller screen when folded like a book. — AP

Speaking of Galaxy phones, Samsung also has another ­highly-anticipated release in 2019 and it’s the flagship Galaxy S10. Some leaks suggest that we could be looking at a device with a bigger full screen bezel-less feature – ­reputable leaker UniverseIce claimed the model will have a 6.7in display – multiple rear camera setup and interestingly, a punch-hole screen design for the front camera. (Notch? What notch?)

Citing Yonhap News, The Verge reported that the South Korean tech giant is expected to unveil the flagship Galaxy S10 in February 2019, most likely at the Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Spain. Yonhap’s sources also say there are plans to showcase the Galaxy F at MWC ahead of its official March launch.

Gotta move faster

The dawn of 5G network ­connectivity is upon us. This new technology promises significantly faster data transmission speeds and capacity, less waiting around for an online task to be completed (also known as lower latency), and could connect more smart devices and sensors simultaneously than ever before.

According to Reuters, 5G is ­currently in the final testing phase and is poised to offer data speeds of up to 50 or even 100 times faster than current 4G networks. In ­theory, that is.

To test real-world 5G speeds, Qualcomm ran a simulation to approximate real-world 5G speeds in Frankfurt and San Francisco, taking into account various factors such as geography, user demands on the network as well as devices with varying levels of LTE and 5G connectivity.

As reported by The Verge, the tests yielded more down-to-earth but still vastly improved speeds – in Frankfurt, browsing speeds went up from 56Mbps for 4G users to 490Mbps for 5G users, with download speeds clocking in at 100Mbps for over 90% of users compared to 8Mbps on LTE. In San Francisco, browsing speeds jumped up from 71Mbps for the 4G user to 1.4Gbps for the 5G user, while download speeds clocked in at 186Mbps on 5G compared to 10Mbps on 4G.

As 5G is an entirely new technology, users will have to upgrade to new smartphones – to that end, one of the variants of Samsung’s upcoming Galaxy S10 is said to support 5G, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

Apart from high speed mobile and data services, experts agree that 5G is essential for the next phase in developing technologies like self-driving cars and ­improving industries like ­healthcare, virtual and augmented reality and more.

Vodafone demonstrated how a young football fan could get Houghton (left) to teach her some football skills with a holographic 3D call on a 5G network. — AP

In September, Vodafone ­demonstrated how a live 3D ­holographic call is possible with 5G at the Vodafone Future Ready Conference in United Kingdom. In the demonstration, English footballer Steph Houghton appeared as a hologram to give an 11-year-old fan some game tips. This exchange showcases how the technology could potentially change the way people communicate with each other, with more chances for remote coaching, training as well as enabling more immersive interactions with famous personalities.

In Malaysia, Communications and Multimedia Minister Gobind Singh Deo announced that Putrajaya and Cyberjaya as testing grounds for national-level 5G trials. The one-year trial began in November and the findings will help the government develop plans and policies on the use of 5G network in the country.

Game on

In 2019, brace yourself for the possible release of another Nintendo Switch. The WSJ reported that Nintendo plans to release a new version of the popular gaming console, with one possible upgrade being a better display.

One of the biggest news in 2018 is Sony announcing that it will not be attending the 2019 E3 Expo for the first time in 24 years. Instead, the company shared that it will be “engaging with consumers and the community in different ways”, with unconfirmed rumours ­swirling that the company might hold its own event to announce details on the PlayStation 5.

Companies like Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo could all be announcing new gaming consoles in 2019. — AP

According to tech website T3, the PS5 console may include upgrades to support 60FPS (frames per ­second) at 4K resolution and it will be running on next-generation AMD graphics cards. Sony could also be announcing details about the PlayStation VR2 – upgrades may include better controllers, new built-in cameras and gloves for enhanced virtual reality experience.

One company that is not ­skipping E3 in 2019 is Microsoft. Speculation is rife that the ­company will be using the event to announce details about two new next-generation Xbox consoles, codenamed Anaconda and Lockhart. Users could also be ­looking at a cloud-based streaming-only disc-less version of the Xbox One S for 2019, which could be announced as soon as next month, according to The Verge.

Microsoft is also expected to reveal more details about its Project xCloud, a Netflix-style streaming service for Xbox games. Not to be confused with Xbox Game Pass, Project xCloud – currently in beta testing mode – is said to make Xbox games available across PCs, phones, and consoles.

Gamers can also look forward to major videogame releases in 2019 – there’s the long-awaited Kingdom Hearts 3, The Last Of Us 2 and hopefully, Hideo Kojima’s star-studded and much-hyped Death Stranding.

For mobile gamers, there’s the 2019 release of the Harry Potter Wizards Unite AR game by Niantic, the same developer behind Pokémon Go. The game will allow users to encounter characters and creatures from the Harry Potter books, cast spells and solve ­mysteries.

Augmented Reality (AR) everywhere

AR technology is not exactly new to platforms like Snapchat and Instagram with its selfie filters, but we could be looking at more than just digital face masks in 2019.

In May, Facebook announced a new version of its AR developing tool AR Studio for content creators and developers. The tool is made for designing AR animations, ­visuals and interactions for the Facebook Camera. Along with existing features like AR Target Tracker and free-to-use sound files, Facebook said it will be adding other features like Body Tracking, Hand Tracking and analytics for AR effects. So you could expect more AR elements in the photos or videos your friends share on Facebook.

AR is likely to become a bigger part of the way we experience events in real life and consume content on social media platforms. Here, an attendee is trying out an AR baseball game at a trade show in Japan. — Bloomberg

AR could also be a part of more live experiences like concerts and sporting events in 2019. TechCrunch reported that rapper Eminem ­incorporated AR into his live ­performance at Coachella music ­festival in April.

Concertgoers could see added AR visual enhancements to the show by downloading the Eminem Augmented app.

In terms of gaming, something exciting is brewing at Niantic. The company announced that it is investing in holographic ­augmented reality display – technology ­developed by ­waveguide optics firm DigiLens, which specialises in ­wearable ­lightweight plastic AR ­displays. For users, it could mean that Niantic is looking to enhance game play interactivity with an AR device like smart ­glasses.

Cheer for Malaysia in eSports

Malaysia is beginning to embrace eSports as a mainstream sporting event. In the recent Budget 2019, the ­government announced a RM10mil budget for the development of eSports in the country.

In 2019, eSports will be a medal event at the South-East Asia Games (SEA) in Philippines. eSports Malaysia secretary-­general Rinie Ramli said a national league will be held as the selection ­process for a squad to represent Malaysia at the SEA Games.

Get set to support a Malaysian eSports team at the 2019 SEA Games. — Bernama

Mobile Legends: Bang Bang is going to be one of the titles ­contested at the Games, along with other shortlisted titles like Dota 2, StarCraft II, Tekken 7 and Arena Of Valor, according to a recent announcement by the Philippine SEA Games ­organising committee and its eSports partner, gaming hardware company Razer.

eSports is also currently being considered as a medal event for the 2022 Asian Games in China. However, the plan to announce eSports as an official medal event has been put on hold as the ­gaming committee does not want a violent or shooting-based game to be contested. Reuters reported that titles for the 2022 Asian Games may feature sports-themed games like Pro Evolution Soccer (PES). Whatever it may be, we’ll look to eSports as a way of getting everyone together to cheer for the same team.

Source: TechNews, The Star by angelin yeoh

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