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Thursday, 24 January 2013

IBM on solid ground

IBM, the world’s largest technology services company, reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that beat estimates on the back of growth in emerging markets.


It gave a better-than-expected 2013 outlook after a solid fourth quarter that analysts say has more to do with Big Blue's smooth execution than a vibrant tech spending environment.

Companies had been widely expected to hold back on IT purchases in December in part because of worries about the so-called US fiscal cliff.

Automatic tax increases and spending cuts would have been triggered had Congress not made a deal to avert the cliff and could have pushed the weak US economy into recession.

But IBM said on Tuesday that its quarterly results beat forecasts and it planned to achieve earnings of at least US$16.70 a share for the full year, above analysts' consensus forecast of US$16.57.
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While some analysts said IBM's earnings might be a sign of an improved tech spending environment, others said the strong results were specific to IBM's business model.

“IBM is better positioned in a tough environment than most tech companies are,” said Cindy Shaw, managing director at Discern.

IBM made a bold strategic move a decade ago when it bought PriceWaterhouse's consulting business and then decided to exit the PC business, betting its future was in finding solutions to business problems with the help of software and technology.

That strategy appears to have paid off.

“What IBM does better than anyone, with the exception of Accenture, is solving problems and I am not talking about taking out some costs, but really driving revenue,” Shaw said.

In addition, she said, IBM was strong in “hot growth markets” such as data analytics, cloud computing, emerging markets and what IBM calls smarter planet, which aims to improve areas such as traffic, power grids and food production.

Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu agreed, saying the success appeared to be more specific to IBM than the industry in general.

“The results show that the IBM advantage and business model vertical integration of hardware and software is difficult to replicate,” he said.

“IBM has been doing this the longest and customers are very accustomed to it. They have a much stronger offering and brand name.”

As a result quarterly net income rose 10% to US$6.1bil, or US$5.39 a share from US$4.71 a year earlier. Revenue dropped 1% to US$29.3bil due to the sale of its retail business in the third quarter.

Analysts had expected the Armonk, New York-based company to report net income of US$5.95bil, or US$5.25 a share, on revenue of US$29.05bil, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Revenue grew in particular because of an 11% increase in IBM's growth markets in Brazil, India, Russia and China.

Software revenue was up 3% in the quarter. Reuters

Some analysts said IBM's better than expected results were a sign that tech spending might not have been as bleak as expected.

”It is better than what people had feared,” said Brian Marshall, an analyst at ISI Group.

”Virtually every segment did a little bit better than people expected. It supports the fact that things are getting better out there at least from a tech industry standpoint.”

Andrew Bartels, an analyst with research firm Forrester Research, said: “We were expecting a lot of companies were sitting on their wallets until it became clear what was going to become of the fiscal cliff.

”Given the fact it's Q4 with a cloud of the fiscal cliff, it's a positive indication that tech software will be doing better in the next couple of months.”

IBM shares rose more than 4 percent to $204.50 after closing at $196.08 on the New York Stock Exchange.- Reuters  

Wednesday, 23 January 2013

Is there ethics in politics?


DR Mohd Farid Mohd Shahran of Ikim in “When the world of politics is devoid of ethics” (The Star Jan 22 - See the attachment) believes there is still room for ethics in politics.

In the real world, especially in developing countries, the ethics of Plato and al-Farabi are only good for an utopian society.

While man is not born power crazy, those who enter politics are goaded by power to resort to unethical means.

Morality is hard to preserve and practise in politics.

English philosopher Francis Bacon said: “It is hard and severe a thing to be a true politician as to be truly moral.”

Unethical behaviour seems to be the order of the day as the general election looms near.

Almost everyday we read of mudslinging on both sides of the fence. Everything under the sun is being politicised as the stakes are very high.

French philosopher Voltaire remarked: “The pleasure of governing must certainly be exquisite if we may judge from the vast numbers who are eager to be concerned with it.”

Had Voltaire been alive today, he would qualify his statement by saying, “It is not so much the pleasure of governing, but the power that comes with it, making the vast numbers who are eager to be concerned with it.”

As Dr Farid said: “Politics, in its true meaning, is praiseworthy”. But the “realpolitik” meaning is different. Mao Zedong once said: “Power comes from the barrel of the gun”.

Jonathan Swift said: “Politics as the word is understood, is nothing but corruption.”

Despite the negative connotation of politics in its general form, politics as a profession can have high ethical values if the very system in which politics arise have strong values as seen in most developed countries.

Singapore is a shining example where the ruling party has great difficulty finding candidates to stand for elections as the people do not see it as a way to become rich overnight.

Singaporean politicians are known to observe and practice the highest ethical principles as espoused by Plato.

The observance of ethical political principles in Malaysia still has a long way to go as noted by Dr Farid where “small issues can potentially be magnified into a big scandal.”

“The various issues raised by political parties range from major ones such as fair economic distribution and political justice, to the most trivial or personal matters such as the way leaders and their family members dress”.

So far, general elections in Malaysia, unlike in some developing countries, have not resulted in the use of heavy weapons to gun down people.

And when the election results are announced, people accept it in good faith and continue with their daily chores while waiting for the next general election. Meanwhile, they hope the party that won will honour its manifesto.

One of America’s founding father’s Thomas Jefferson said: “I have no ambition to govern men. It is a painful and thankless office.” Thomas Jefferson was a man of high ethical values.

Do we have men like Jefferson in Malaysian politics?

Certainly there are many men and they should be given the task of providing true leadership along the political principles of Plato and al-Farabi.

By HASSAN TALIB

When the world of politics is devoid of ethics

 

Much too often, personalities are the biggest casualties as they are ruthlessly tarnished. All the dirt and grime is dug out and paraded for the nation to see despite their many prior good contributions.

WITH the general election around the corner, the heat of the Malaysian political climate is gradually increasing.

The number of political gatherings, ceramah and demonstrations by political parties multiply by the day and continue to increase.

The various issues raised by political parties range from major ones such as fair economic distribution and political justice, to the most trivial or personal matters such as the way leaders and their family members dress.

It looks as if Malaysians have become a very conscious lot concerned over everything overnight. Small issues can potentially be magnified into a big scandal.

Not only is the intensity palpable within ceramah and gatherings, a similar tone is also evident in cyberspace where heated debates and exchange of views have overwhelmed the social media such as blogs, Facebook and Twitter.

While such a phenomenon is regarded as normal, the negative culture attached to it is best eschewed.

To render support for one’s own party, some leaders and fanatical followers would resort to unethical means such as making false claims and unfounded allegations that include character assassination.

In response to such accusations, the opposing parties will stage similar counter attacks. As a result, emotions simply overrule reason causing the situation to get out of hand.

Understandably, the principle that guides extreme political groups is that politics is a war in which all kinds of weapons must be deployed to exterminate the enemies.

In engaging power politics, the prince, says Machiavelli, must be “adaptable and know how to do wrong when he must”.

Naturally, such an approach will have a more divisive impact on society.

People become more divided and emotions override everything else, particularly level-headedness.

Much too often, personalities are the biggest casualties as they are ruthlessly tarnished. All the dirt and grime is dug out and paraded for the nation to see despite their many prior good contributions.

Thus, questions remain: Is this the way politics serve its purpose in administering human life? Must society undergo this unhealthy process to elect a leader? Must we necessarily be divisive before arriving at political maturity when the amount of damage done is irreparable?

The answer lies in how the meaning of politics should be properly understood.

More importantly is the understanding of the role of ethics in political activities.

Politics, in its true meaning, is praiseworthy.

Philosophers and political thinkers as early as Plato, through his idea of the “Philosopher King”, had proposed a political system where wisdom and virtues must be the bases of governing states.

Although his idea is also criticised as utopian, the principle that Plato tried to put forward is very important, that is, a true political system must be guided by knowledge and virtue reflected primarily in the character of the leaders and politicians.

In other words, ethics, according to Plato, must be the basis of politics.

Just as men must live virtuous and good lives, a state must also be built on strong ethical ground. If the state is unfavourable, says Plato, the individual citizens would find themselves unable to lead a good life as it should be lived.

This organic relationship between ethics and politics from Plato stemmed from his idea that a state must be a microcosmic reflection of man. Since a state is run by humans who need to be furnished with good ethical virtues for him to be good, a good state must also be refined with virtuous characteristics.

Echoing Plato is al-Farabi, a celebrated thinker from the Muslim tradition whose work, The Opinions of Inhabitants of the Virtuous City, underlines that a state should be properly ruled by virtuous leaders and followed by virtuous people.

“The excellent city resembles the perfect and healthy body where all of whose limbs co-operate to make the life of the animal perfect and to preserve it in this state.”

Among the qualities needed by a ruler, according to al-Farabi, are intelligence, good memory, keenness of mind, love of knowledge, moderation in matters of food, drink and sex, love of truthfulness, magnanimity, frugality, love of justice, firmness and courage.

Arguably for some, real politics can never take ethics as its principle.

Such a view is justified if only man is naturally born with the attribute of being power crazed.

However, this has not been so since man was created by God in the best of mould as affirmed in the Quran: “Verily we have created the human being in the best of form.”

Furthermore, mankind can take pride in some of its leaders and rulers with good qualities and virtuous characteristics decorating its history. In Islam, for example, Prophet Muhammad and the four-guided caliphs continue to be revered as leaders par excellence for all Muslims. Another outstanding and exemplary leader at a later period was Umar Abd Aziz whose short rule, nevertheless, left a tremendous impact.

So rigid was Umar’s standard of ethics that he was said to have even refused to use up the candle in his office to light the room when discussing personal matters.

In sum, while we all can agree and understand Einstein when he said, “Politics is more difficult than physics”, we hope that, just as physics has contributed immensely to benefit the life of the human kind, politics would be able to do likewise.

BY DR MOHD FARID MOHD SHAHRAN, SENIOR FELLOW CENTRE OF ECONOMICS AND SOCIAL SCIENCE 
IKIM VIEWS - The Star Jan 22, 2012

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Tuesday, 22 January 2013

Chance to invest in distressed assets

Distressed property markets where deals are difficult to finance and yield spreads are at all-time highs provide attractive investment opportunities, according to Morgan Stanley’s real estate unit.

In the Asia-Pacific region, Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing is most focused on China, India, Australia and Japan, said Olivier de Poulpiquet, who helps oversee $36 billion in real estate assets as the global co-head for the unit.

In India and China, demand is driven by strong demographic trends amid a dearth of financing, while in Australia and Japan, low borrowing costs are providing opportunities, he said.

Morgan Stanley, with a team of 280 globally in 11 countries dedicated to the property business, has about 45 percent of its investments in the U.S., 33 percent in Asia and about 22 percent in Europe.

In many developed markets, such as U.S., Japan and Australia, the yield spread between real estate and the risk free rate, typically the interest rate on U.S. Treasury bills, is as much as 400 basis points, de Poulpiquet said.

“Asia and the U.S. will continue to offer opportunities,” de Poulpiquet said in an interview in Singapore yesterday. “Investments in real estate have seen a flight to safety globally and in particular in the U.S. and Europe.”

Interest in property investments by institutional investors is improving as the asset class is viewed as an effective portfolio diversifier and an inflation hedge, de Poulpiquet said. Allocations to real estate by major institutions may climb from an average of 7 percent currently to 10 percent, he said, without providing a time frame for the increase.

India, China

In India and China, Morgan Stanley is finding opportunities by financing developers that are seeking money to complete projects amid a scarcity of capital, de Poulpiquet said.

In its almost three-year effort to tighten the property market, the Chinese government has raised down-payment and mortgage requirements, imposed a property tax for the first time in Shanghai and Chongqing, and enacted home-purchase restrictions in about 40 cities. India’s biggest developers have struggled to rein in record debt as they grapple with high borrowing costs, dwindling sales and banks’ reluctance to lend.

“The major trend in these markets is that this growth is combined with a capital constrained environment for real estate, mostly driven by government interventions and price cooling measures,” de Poulpiquet said.

“In India and China, there is less opportunity to buy existing assets but greater opportunity to pick the right developer and build to either lease or sell.”

Favorable Demographics

India will have 127 million more working age adults by 2020, while in China, the 470 million adults leaving rural areas for cities will reach a rate of 11 million per year, said de Poulpiquet.

Over the next 15 years, the total global urban space growth will reach about 82,000 square kilometers (31,660 square miles), 47 percent of which will be driven by India and China, he said.

In markets such as Shanghai, the supply of class A office spaces is relatively low while demand is forecasted to remain robust, de Poulpiquet said. In India, the trend is similar where the residential sector continues to offer interesting opportunities, he said.

In Australia, distressed assets sold by European banks which are undergoing deleveraging processes to clean up their balance sheets are attractive, said de Poulpiquet.

In Japan, Morgan Stanley is buying class B office assets in Tokyo and greater Tokyo, he said.

“In many markets globally, including Japan and Australia you can buy class B plus assets, at significant yield differential between your cost of borrowing and the real estate yield,” said de Poulpiquet. “It is a relatively safer investment with good quality yield and return profile.”

Europe will also increasingly offer attractive investments in real estate with all the level of distress in the market, he said. Still, Morgan Stanley remains “cautious” and focused on making “defensive investments” in the region as prices still have some room to fall, he said.

“Overall, we will see slower growth, more volatility but in Europe, it’s neither a doomsday scenario nor in a happy recovery and this will last for a while,” he said.- Bloomberg

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