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Saturday, 9 June 2012

By their dialogues we shall know them

Political conferences all have their own character, which also determines their actual value.

ONLY a quarter of a century ago, Malaysia launched the first premier annual conference for the most dynamic part of the world.

Thus was ISIS’ Asia-Pacific Roundtable (APR), organised by the Institute of Strategic and International Studies in Kuala Lumpur. It soon became an institution and a pilgrimage for strategic thinkers, policymakers and analysts with a focus on security in East Asia and the Americas, with Russia, Australasia and the Pacific somewhere in between.

As a non-governmental forum, the APR became the top “Track Two” dialogue for the Asia-Pacific mega-region’s movers and shakers. Because Track One (governmental) forums were official, delegates there would be inhibited and dialogues overburdened with protocol.

Track Two dialogues, however, were non-official and included governmental officials alongside academics and others. With everyone speaking in a private capacity, exchanges tended to be more open and candid.

      Track One: Malaysia’s Defence Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi speaking on the final day of the Institute for Strategic Studies summit in Singapore on June 3. — EPA

This allowed officials the time and space to speak their mind, while giving non-officials an opportunity to “listen in” and address officials directly. The APR series would go on to inspire copies, or at least near-copies.

In 2002, Singapore began its own annual conference series in the Shangri-la Dialogue (SD). This would be a Track One exercise managed by Britain’s Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS).

Through the years other Asean countries also established their own national think- tanks, with one from each country forming part of the Asean-ISIS network. The APR then became their joint project, while still being organised by ISIS Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur.

After the SD, the Swiss-based World Economic Forum (WEF) also turned its gaze eastwards. Apart from the WEF’s annual meetings in Davos, it also began to hold several conferences a year elsewhere, including the annual WEF on East Asia.

The APR is held in late May or early June each year. For both the SD and the WEF on East Asia to be held back-to-back with the 2012 APR testifies to the APR as a form of mainstay. Organisers tend to hold broadly similar forums in a region around the same time to economise on travel expenses for international participants. That the other international conferences adjusted their schedules to suit Asean-ISIS’s timing is a measure of how Asean and its institutions can implicitly drive international events involving major world powers.

While the SD focuses on politics and provides a political platform for delegates, the WEF on East Asia (like other WEF forums) emphasises corporate activity and provides a business platform for delegates. Their similarities and differences with each other and with the APR became obvious this year.

The APR’s agenda this time ranged from regional security with the rise of China and India, to US strategic interests, sub-regional perspectives, governance issues and Myanmar’s future.

There was, as usual, a fair assortment of delegates from various countries around the Asia-Pacific. Someone remarked on how much of the discussion was taken up on China and the implications of its continued rise, but at least the conference could not be accused of skirting the reality outside.

This concerns the key question of how much of the region’s realities are actually reflected in conference discussions. What is their street credibility like?

The SD tended, perhaps typically, to be dominated by Western voices. Much of the time it was US officials in particular talking to their Asian counterparts over everyone else.

US-China military relations or rather the lack of them this time became almost the dominant theme. Attracting most interest was the US view of China’s rise, in particular with the attendance of US Defence Secretary and former CIA director Leon Panetta.

The SD’s strategic focus on China came at a time when Vietnam and the Philippines were experiencing renewed problems with China’s rival claims to South China Sea territory. Perhaps for this reason, several Chinese would-be delegates apparently gave this year’s SD a miss.

This showed that Chinese delegates had yet to prepare themselves sufficiently for vigorous public debates. That would require, for example, adequate mastery of the main language of discourse, English, to engage with others convincingly and persuasively.

With the “China component” virtually absent, there was a complaint that the Shangri-la Dialogue proved to be not much of a dialogue. And since friendly relations across the seas this time were somewhat strained, it wasn’t much of a Shangri-la situation either.

Further north in Bangkok, several important social issues were aired along with the platforms for businesses.

There were the obligatory discussions on China-US or US-China relations, of course. Who could seriously omit such a pivotal issue in the region?

But China was discussed in a variety of ways beyond the flat topic of a military enigma. There was, for example, consideration of how the worsening European debt crisis could hit China and then impact on the rest of the region in myriad ways.

There were also important exchanges on the reform process in Myanmar. However, these were somewhat dwarfed by the presence of Aung San Suu Kyi, on the podium addressing everyone directly in her first trip outside her country in 24 years.

For the first time, delegates could speak with her and relate to the needs of Myanmar and its people. Such was the impact created that the WEF on East Asia decided to hold next year’s conference in Myanmar.

The discussion on how banks must also serve the poor had a showing by the Boston Consulting Group. However, talk of how providing banking access to some 20% of the world’s population still without access could re-energise growth did not arouse much debate on how this might require a whole reconceptualisation of banking priorities.

Discussion on the need for mobile healthcare, particularly for rural areas, saw representations by the Telenor Group and Boston Consulting. While this would clearly maximise the capacity of healthcare professionals, it would also involve a serious re-assessment of private and public sector roles in healthcare funding.

Food security was a main item on the agenda, with the observation that despite increases in food production in the past half century, a billion people are still starving. But again, there was not much debate on how the question is not the amount of food produced but its distribution, as determined by global markets and prices.

As a conference in the heart of the Asean region, surrounded by Asean realities, the WEF could not miss the quickening pace of Asean economic integration and the creation of a common market by 2015. There was no doubt that Asean integration would proceed full-speed in all its intended spheres. In attempting to learn from the EU experience, however, Asean needed to adapt from European successes while avoiding the failures.

Over at the SD in Singapore, the question of how the US could grapple with a looming Chinese presence in the region led to consideration of the US navy’s new intended toy, the super-high-tech destroyer DDG-1000.

At US$3bil (RM9.56bil) each, this would push the navy into the space age and the Defence Department into near-insolvency. Perhaps not surprisingly, there was also little debate on how the greatest threats confronting the US are not other countries but non-state actors like terrorist groups and various militant organisations.

Perhaps some help could come by way of more Track Two dialogues.

Behind The Headlines By Bunn Nagara

China to launch 3 astronauts in new manned space flight docking

 • China will launch its Shenzhou-9 manned spacecraft sometime in mid-June.
 • Shenzhou-9 and its carrier rocket, the Long March-2F, had been moved to the launch platform.
 • In the next few days, scientists will conduct functional tests on the spacecraft and the rocket.

The Shenzhou-9 manned spacecraft, the Long March-2F rocket, and the escape tower are vertically transferred to the launch pad at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwest China's Gansu Province, June 9, 2012. China will launch its Shenzhou-9 manned spacecraft sometime in mid-June to perform the country's first manned space docking mission with the orbiting Tiangong-1 space lab module, a spokesperson with the country's manned space program said here Saturday. (Xinhua/Wang Jianmin)

Click to see more photos

JIUQUAN, Gansu, June 9 (Xinhua) -- China will launch its Shenzhou-9 manned spacecraft sometime in mid-June to perform the country's first manned space docking mission with the orbiting Tiangong-1 space lab module, a spokesperson said here Saturday.

By 10:30 a.m. Saturday, the spacecraft and its carrier rocket, the Long March-2F, had been moved to the launch platform at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwest China, a spokesperson with the country's manned space program said.

In the next few days, scientists will conduct functional tests on the spacecraft and the rocket, as well as joint tests on selected astronauts, spacecraft, rocket and ground systems, according to the spokesperson.

The Shenzhou-9 will be launched into space to perform China's first manned space docking mission with the orbiting Tiangong-1 space lab module.

The manned spacecraft Shenzhou-9 and its carrier rocket were delivered to the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in early April this year.

The Tiangong-1, or Heavenly Palace-1, was lowered to docking orbit in early June and is orbiting normally, the spokesperson said.

The final preparations are running smoothly, and the selected astronauts have completed their training and are in sound physical and mental conditions, according to the spokesperson.

Niu Hongguang, deputy commander-in-chief of the country's manned space program, said earlier that the three-person crew on Shenzhou-9 might include female astronauts, but the final selection would be decided "on the very last condition."

The space docking mission will be manually conducted by astronauts, giving China another chance to test its docking technology, the program's spokesperson said previously.

One of the three Shenzhou-9 crew members will not board the Tiangong-1 space module lab, but will remain inside the spacecraft as a precautionary measure in case of emergency, the spokesperson said.

The target module Tiangong-1, which blasted off on Sept. 29, 2011, went into long-term operation in space awaiting docking attempts of Shenzhou-9 and Shenzhou-10 after completing China's first space docking mission with the unmanned Shenzhou-8 spacecraft in early November.

Related: 

Shenzhou-9 spacecraft delivered to launch center
BEIJING, April 9 (Xinhua) -- The manned spacecraft Shenzhou-9 was delivered to the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwest China on Monday, a spokesman with the country's manned space program said.  Full story

Shenzhou-9 may take female astronaut to space: official
BEIJING, March 12 (Xinhua) -- Authorities have completed the initial selection of crew members for China's first manned space docking mission, and the roster includes female astronauts, an official with the country's manned space program has said.  Full story

China to carry out manned space flight

China's Long March 2F rocket carrying the Tiangong-1 module blasts off from the Jiuquan launch centre on September 29 2011 The manned space flight will dock with the Tiangong 1 space station module, pictured here being launched
 
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China has announced it will carry out a manned space flight at some point in the middle of June.

A rocket carrying the Shenzhou 9 spacecraft has been moved to a launch pad in the north-west of the country.

According to state news agency Xinhua, it will carry three astronauts - possibly including a woman - to the Taingong 1 space station module.

This will be China's fourth manned space flight and its first since 2008.

It became only the third country to independently send a man into space in 2003.

Stellar plans
 
Last year, China completed a complicated space docking manoeuvre when an unmanned craft docked with the Taingong 1, or "Heavenly Body", by remote control.

The astronauts onboard the Shenzhou 9 spacecraft will also dock with the Taingong 1 - an experimental module currently orbiting Earth - and carry out scientific experiments on board.

Xinhua reported that Niu Hongguang, deputy commander-in-chief of China's manned space programme, said the crew "might include female astronauts".

The mission is part of China's programme to develop a full orbiting space station.

Beijing is planning to complete the 60-tonne manned space station by 2020.

China was previously turned away from the International Space Station, a much bigger project run by 16 nations, reportedly after objections from the United States.- BBC

China to Launch 3 Astronauts to Space Lab This Month

China Long March 2F rocket rolls out to launch pad for Shenzhou 9 mission in June 2012.
A Long March 2F rocket carrying the Shenzhou 9 rocket rolls out to the launch pad at China's Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center ahead of a planned June 2012 launch of the country's first manned space docking mission.
CREDIT: China Manned Space Engineering Office


China will launch its first manned mission to an orbiting space laboratory in mid-June, according to state media reports and the country's human spaceflight agency.

A Long March 2F rocket will launch three astronauts aboard a Shenzhou 9 capsule for China's first manned space docking at the mini-space station Tiangong-1. The space lab module has been circling Earth unmanned since its launch last year.

"The Shenzhou 9 will perform our country's first manned space docking mission with the orbiting Tiangong 1 space lab module," the Xinhua news agency quoted Zhou Jianping, chief designer of China's manned space program, as saying today (June 9).

Zhou's comments came as he accompanied the rocket set to launch the Shenzhou 9 mission to a pad at China's Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in the country's northwest region.

The mission, Zhou told Xinhua, will be a major milestone for China's space exploration program.

"It means China's spacecraft will become a genuine manned shuttle tool between space and Earth. It can send human beings to space stations or space labs," Zhou told Xinhua. "This will be a significant step in China's manned space flight history."  [Gallery: Tiangong 1, China's First Space Lab]



China's Shenzhou 9 mission will mark the fourth human spaceflight for the country, which has been making steady advances since the launch of Chinese astronaut Yang Liwei in 2003 on Shenzhou 5, the country's first human spaceflight. China is the third country to achieve human spaceflight after Russia and the United States.

Since its first flight, China has launched two more manned missions, the two-man Shenzhou 6 flight and three-person Shenzhou 7 mission. Last September, China launched the Tiangong 1 module — a prototype for a future space station — into orbit. That launch was followed in November by the unmanned Shenzhou 8 mission, which successfully docked a capsule with the space laboratory twice during the test flight.

The Shenzhou 9 mission will mark China's first human spaceflight to an orbiting module. Earlier this year, space program officials said the mission could also mark the first launch of China's first female astronaut, but a final decision on that is pending, Xinhua reported.

China Long March 2F rocket rolls out to launch pad for Shenzhou 9 mission in June 2012.
This image released by the China Manned Space Engineering Office shows
the Long March 2F rocket carrying the Shenzhou 9 capsule that will launch
three astronauts to the Tiangong 1 space lab in June 2012.
CREDIT: China Manned Space Engineering Office
A translation of an announcement released online by the China Manned Space Engineering Office (CMSE), which oversees China's human spaceflight program, stated that preparations of both the rocket and Shenzhou 9 astronaut crew are going smoothly.

A series of spacecraft and rocket tests, as well as final mission training, are underway ahead of the planned spaceflight, CMSE officials said.

China's Shenzhou (or "Divine Vessel") spacecraft are three-module space capsules with a design originally based on Russia's Soyuz space capsules, but the Chinese vehicles carry substantial modifications.

Like the Soyuz, Shenzhou vehicles carry up to three astronauts and consist of a propulsion module, a crew capsule and an orbital module. But unlike Russia's Soyuz, the orbital module of Shenzhou spacecraft carries its own solar arrays and can remain in space after its crew returns to Earth in the crew capsule.

China's Tiangong 1 ("Heavenly Palace 1") space laboratory module, meanwhile, is a prototype space station designed to test the technologies required for a much larger space station complex currently under development. The Tiangong 1 module is 34 feet long (10.4 meters), 11 feet wide (3.35 m) and weighed about 8.5 metric tons.

Chinese space officials have said the country is developing a larger, 60-ton space station that will consist of several modules. That space station is slated to be launched in 2020.

China is currently following a three-step space exploration program that ultimately aims to land an astronaut on the moon. According to a white paper released by the Chinese government in December, the country plans to launch a series of robotic moon landers and a lunar sample-return mission by 2016.

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Friday, 8 June 2012

Singapore millionaires who don’t feel rich

Singapore, the third richest country in the world on a per capita basis, may be good at accumulating wealth but it fares less well when it comes to distributing it.WHEN I read last week that one in six households in Singapore is a millionaire in investable wealth, it stirred mixed emotions of pride and worry.

Bloomberg had earlier reported that the city state had become the third richest country in the world on a per capita basis.



Many Singaporeans probably share these mixed feelings, if they could take time away from work to think about it. (More on that later.)

The pride, of course, stems from our transformation from a squatter colony to this present level of affluence in only 47 years, and the concern comes from the high cost of living that such wealth brings.

Singapore is the 10th most expensive city in the world. The two factors – wealth and high cost – are related; if cost of living is taken into account Singapore’s wealth ranking drops to 11th in the world.

Inflation clouds everyone’s lives, unless he is among the 188,000 millionaire households, to which it probably matters much less..

A school-teacher commented: “Being told that I am living in one of the world’s richest cities doesn’t profit my life and the resultant high cost is a blow.”

Last year, the number of millionaires (in US dollars) increased by 14%, one of the world’s fastest growth rates. In the previous year – from 2009 to 2010 – it went up by a record one-third.

Their wealth does not include the value of their properties or other fixed assets. If it does, Singaporeans would be even richer.

The question is: how many of the new rich are foreigners who took up permanent residency here? If the number is high, it could distort the picture a little.

Over the past five years, the number of rich mainland Chinese, Indians and Indonesians who took up PR here has risen, pushing up the price of properties.

Two of Facebook billionaire co-founders, Mark Zuckerberg and Eduardo Saverin, have made Singapore their home.

I also noticed that the pro-government media has been playing up stories of rising wealth and the capacity of Singaporeans to spend it. It is understandable because it paints a rosy picture.

Recent tales included the following:

> Singapore’s (resale) public flats are worth more than some expensive villas and islands in Portugal, Greece and Spain, as well as luxurious properties in the United States, reported Business Times.

> Rising property prices – nearly 7,000 “shoe box” condos of 300 sq ft to 500 sq ft have been built. A 463 sq ft condo was sold for S$702,000 (RM1.7mil).

> For sale: a bottle of special edition whisky in Singapore for S$250,000 (RM620,165).

> Singapore girl from a promi­­nent family splurging S$200,000 (RM496,252) on a photo shoot.

> Launch of the Singapore’s most expensive car, priced at S$3.6mil (RM9mil).

> A 23,920 sq ft bungalow at the prestigious Nassim Road was sold for a record S$47.8mil (RM118.6mil).

Such stories will likely continue to happen but so will tales relating to the new poor.

Singapore may be good at accumulating wealth but it fares less well when it comes to distributing it.

In fact, what is rubbing off some of the “wealth” shine is the widening inequality between the rich and the poor, an imbalance that ranks a notorious second in the world next to Hong Kong.

According to the Manpower Ministry, the earnings of the poorest 20% had stagnated in the past 10 years, with real income rising only S$200 (RM496) to S$1,400 (RM3,471), or 0.3%.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad wrote: “Singapore is rich and happy at the moment, and that’s not good. America was like that at one point in time.”

I know what he means.

A blogger recalled this was what former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew said years ago. He said he feared affluence was making Singaporeans complacent.

He said the young generation compared badly with the poorer, hard-striving migrants from China and needed “spurs on its side” to drive it on.

Are wealthy Singaporeans happy? Happiness is subjective, but a Twitter reported that only one quarter of the people are happy.

A newspaper for Indians in Singapore, Tabla, wrote: “They are among the world’s wealthiest, ranking sixth highest in net wealth with a mean value of US$284,692 (RM908,737) per adult. But Singaporeans aren’t necessarily a happy lot.”

Most attribute it to the pressure cooker living, the high cost of living and the education system. Despite what Lee said, Singaporeans work the longest hours in a worldwide comparison, beating the Japanese.

But the country has the second lowest job satisfaction in the world, according to an Accenture survey, with some 76% saying they are dissatisfied with their jobs.

Long-time visitor Brian Nelsen wrote last month: “Where are the friendly Singaporeans I used to know?”

He expressed shock and dismay at the abrupt change in the attitude of Singaporeans towards tourists in the last few years. They appear unfriendly and rude nowadays.

“Nobody smiles or returns a greeting any more. Many are now a surly lot,” he said. He probably had not met our richer folks.

Joyce Hooi of The Business Times wrote: “If Singapore had been a person, it would have stood above the unwashed tableau of Occupy Wall Street, watching from its penthouse and laughing into its Cognac.”

The really wealthy are busy buying up luxuries.

Every single day, she added, 25 people had bought a Mercedes-Benz or a BMW, and a Ferrari every four days over the past 11 months.

INSIGHT DOWN SOUTH BY SEAH CHIANG NEE  cnseah@thestar.com.my

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