S’pore escaping recession?

Govt reiterates 1%-3% GDP forecast for 2012 after smaller contraction

SINGAPORE: Singapore says it may avoid a recession despite the weak global economic outlook, after data showed the economy contracted less than expected in the last quarter of 2011 despite persistent weakness in electronics.

“The first month of trade numbers, export numbers are quite good,” Thia Jang Ping, a director at the Ministry of Trade and Industry, told a news conference.

“It's still too early to call, but our near-term indicators do not suggest an imminent danger of Singapore slipping very badly into a recession in the first quarter,” he added.

The economy shrank 2.5% in the fourth quarter from the preceding period on an annualised and seasonally adjusted basis, data showed yesterday.

Slowdown: Singapore’s port is seen through the downtown business district. The island nation says its trade and non-oil domestic exports are expected to grow by 3% to 5% this year, down from a rise of 8% and 2.2%, respectively, in 2011. — AP

 

The GDP data was better than an advance flash estimate of a 2.9% contraction, but worse than the median estimate for a 2.3 % decline by economists polled by Reuters.



From a year earlier, gross domestic product grew 3.6%. Singapore stocks and currency weakened yesterday although that was in line with the regional trend, with sentiment hit by a another delay in cementing a bailout package for Greece.

Singapore expects its economy to grow by 1% to 3% in 2012, down from last year's revised expansion of 4.9%, although it warned of risks to the forecast.

Asia is suffering the effects of slowing demand in the West, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last month warned that Europe's debt crisis could tip the world economy into recession.

A recession is often defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction, and Singapore, whose trade is three times GDP, tends to feel the chills from a deterioration in global economic conditions faster than most countries.

“Specifically, a disorderly sovereign default in the eurozone could precipitate a global financial crisis, while an escalation of geopolitical tension in the Middle East could trigger a global oil price shock,” Singapore's trade ministry said in a statement.

On Wednesday, South Korea said January exports fell 7% from a year ago in the biggest annual decline since October 2009, while Australia said its leading index of employment dropped in February in a sign that jobs growth could fall.

Singapore also said yesterday its trade and non-oil domestic exports were expected to grow by 3% to 5 % this year, down from a rise of 8% and 2.2%, respectively, in 2011. - Reuters

Is the Two-Party-Sytem becoming a Two-Race-System? Online spars started before Chua-Lim debate!

 All systems go for the showdown

IT'S all systems go as temperatures rise for the showdown between MCA president Dr Chua Soi Lek and DAP secretary general Lim Guan Eng at the Berjaya Times Square in Kuala Lumpur tomorrow (Feb 18, 2012)



The rules and format have been finalised for their debate on the topic: Is the Two-Party System Becoming a Two-Race System?

The debate in Mandarin will be aired live on Astro AEC (Channel 301) and repeated at 11pm on Saturday. Non-Mandarin speakers can also watch the debate in Bahasa Malaysia on Astro Awani(Channel 501). It can also be watched via live streaming on www.astro.com.my/bendiquan

About 600 seats have been allocated at the venue, including 200 each for MCA and DAP. The debate is jointly organised by the Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute and MCA think-tank Insap.

Battle of wits between Chua and Lim to be aired live on television

Reports by LIM WEY WEN, LEE YEN MUN, CHRISTINA TAN and CHIN MUI YOON

 KUALA LUMPUR: The showdown that will see MCA president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek and Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng engage in a battle of wits will be similar to the US presidential election debate.

Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute (Asli) director and chief executive officer Datuk Dr Michael Yeoh told The Star, however, that although the duel would resemble the American debate, this had been adapted to the local setting.

“All parties have agreed upon important matters like the seat allocation and structure of the debate,” Dr Yeoh said, adding that the 200 seats set aside for each political party would remain.

The one-hour debate titled “Is the two-party system becoming a two-race system?” starts at 5pm tomorrow.



Both Dr Chua and Lim will draw lots to determine who speaks first and they will then be allowed a few minutes to give their opening remarks on the topic.

After that, both speakers will be asked to answer one question posed by the moderator – historian and Kuala Lumpur and Selangor Chinese Assembly Hall chief executive officer Tan Ah Chai.

Shortly after, both speakers will field questions from the audience. They will then have the opportunity to give some closing remarks.

The debate will be conducted in Mandarin and will be aired live on Astro AEC (Channel 301).

In the channel’s special edition of News Talk, host Siow Hui Mei will facilitate a pre-debate panel discussion 30 minutes before its start.

A replay will be televised at 11pm the same day.

Viewers can catch the debate translated into Bahasa Malaysia on Astro Awani (Channel 501). They can also watch a live streaming of the programme via Astro’s BDQ website (www.astro.com.my/bendiquan).

Speaking experts give tips to Chua and Lim

By CHIN MUI YOON  newsdesk@thestar.com.my 

PETALING JAYA: Dress right, keep a cool head, inject some humour and maintain eye contact.

These are some of the tips from public speaking experts to MCA president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek and Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng as they face each other in the upcoming debate tomorrow.

According to them, the manner in which both men address issues affecting the nation will have far-reaching influence on how the public perceive their leadership, vision and values and, ultimately, affect how they cast their votes in the next general election.

Former TV newscaster and veteran event host Datuk Mahadzir Lokman advised the leaders to dress more casually to present a more approachable, people-centric appearance rather than a typical politician’s suit and tie.

“Our politicians tend to be very mundane in their choice of dressing,” he said.

“Of course, they can’t wear baggy jeans or T-shirts, but I do suggest a pair of slacks and short-sleeve cotton or linen shirt to appear as a down-to-earth wakil rakyat.”

Mahadzir opined that both speakers must articulate their points in a crisp and clear manner and added that he believed Dr Chua had an advantage here as he had strong oratory skills.

“He speaks very well and he is respected in the Chinese community as a taiko or big brother. To them, a taiko leads and has the right to do whatever he wants,” he said.

He added that both men must appeal to two segments of the Chinese community — the English-speaking and the Chinese educated —and that the latter would expect precise Mandarin with faultless grammar, pitch and intonation.

“I believe parts of the debate will be in English which is important as it is not just the Chinese who will be watching, everyone else will be too!”

Datuk Lawrence Chan, executive chairman of PDL Management Corporation and an international speaker and trainer, felt that “Dr Chua’s forte is his vast experience while Lim’s strengths are his youth and the long, hard way he took to reach the Chief Minister’s post.”

“But what will be vital for both is whether they can keep a cool head. In a debate, certain issues tend to invoke strong emotions, and the speakers can come across as authoritarian, which can put off people.

“Maintaining eye contact with the audience is also important, as are their non-verbal expressions which are there for all to see during a live debate. Sometimes it is not what’s being said that counts, it’s how they say it. If the speakers speak persuasively, even those who are neutral will swing to their side.

“I would also advise them to use some humour that is relevant, as people tend to remember such moments.”

According to Roshan Thiran, CEO of Leaderonomics, a leadership development social enterprise, leadership styles are driven by personalities.

“And as far as public perception goes, Lim is seen as a Gen X leader whom people can relate to easily.

“He has established an image as a leader who is approachable. It’s a positive trait but on the downside, he may take a while to respond to issues.

“Dr Chua, on the other hand, is a smart and savvy leader who has survived many crises in his political career. He is a leader who knows how to lead through different and difficult circumstances,” said Roshan.

He added that what would be important in a live debate would be for the two men to know how to leverage on their strengths while playing down their weaknesses.

Supporters spar online ahead of the main event

Reports by LIM WEY WEN, LEE YEN MUN, CHRISTINA TAN and CHIN MUI YOON

PUTRAJAYA: Supporters of both MCA president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek and DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng are beating the war drums online as the political rivals prepare to face off in what has been dubbed the most anticipated debate of the year for the Chinese community.

Encouragement filled the Facebook pages of both Dr Chua and Lim while others took the opportunity to “thumb down” their opponents.

Dr Chua will square off with Lim tomorrow on the topic “Is the two-party system becoming a two-race system?” before a 600-strong audience at Berjaya Times Square in Kuala Lumpur.

“Big boss, drop the hammer down, show them that all promises made must be based on the political reality of Malaysia,” Facebook user Reon Lim wrote on Dr Chua’s page.

Another supporter, Ragvinder Singh Jessy, said: “Guan Eng is thrashed. He lacks substance in debates. He’s no match to your prowess.”

DAP supporters were equally enthusiastic about Lim, with some suggesting to the Penang Chief Minister to sport his signature “Brylcreem look” for good luck.

“We all kind of like it and miss it, don’t know why but that hairstyle gives you extra ‘uumphh’ and ‘pow-wah’ (power). Good luck, CM – we believe in you!” said Evelyn Hor, referring to Lim’s slick hairdo.

Those who did not manage to reserve a seat for the debate expressed their disappointment.

Although the debate will be aired live on Astro, some are unhappy because not everyone has access to satellite television.

“Why the free tv station no broadcast? I hope tv station in media prima or rtm can broadcast this, not everyone can watch through astro,” wrote Bernard Low Chun Sun on Dr Chua’s Facebook page.

The debate, organised by the Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute and MCA think-tank Insap, is part of a day-long forum on “The Chinese at a Political Crossroads in the Next General Election”.

 Related post/Stories:

•  Malaysian Two Party System Becoming a Two-Race System?” A question of one or two sarongs!
• Malaysian Chinese at a Political Crossroads forum; Chua-Lim Debate on 18/2/2012
• Malaysian Politics: Chua-Lim Debate Sets New Standard
• Battle of Batu Pahat boys
• Chua: Let's get first debate over first 

Malaysia's GDP Growth 5.1% in 2011, pretty okay?

Malaysia's growth beats consensus

By FINTAN NG fintan@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.2% in the fourth quarter of 2011 despite the challenging external environment as domestic demand continued to support growth.

Bank Negara said in a press statement that full-year growth came in at 5.1% after expanding 7.2% in 2010 as domestic demand conditions remained favourable supported by both private and public sector spending.

The fourth-quarter GDP figures came in slightly higher than the 4.8% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey while the full-year growth was largely in line with a separate survey, where the median estimate was 5% and in line with official estimates of 5% to 5.5% growth.

“Domestic demand expanded by 10.5% during the quarter, driven by the continued expansion in household and business spending, and public sector expenditure,” the central bank said.

Private comsumption increased by 7.1% supported by favourable income growth while public consumption rose by 23.6% following higher expenditure on emoluments and supplies and services.

Gross fixed capital formation, which measures the net increase of fixed or physical assets, increased by 8.5% supported by continued expansion in capital spending by the private sector and the non-financial public enterprises.

“The federal government development expenditure during the quarter was mostly channelled into the transportation, trade and industry sectors,” the central bank said.

The services sector grew by 6.4% for the quarter (6.8% for the year), manufacturing expanded by 5.2% (4.5%), construction rose 6.4% (3.5%), agriculture expanded by 6.9% (5.6%) while the mining sector's pace of decline narrowed compared to the third quarter, falling by 3.3% and declining 5.7% for the year.

The headline inflation rate, as measured by the annual change in the consumer price index, declined to 3.2% in the fourth quarter with inflation in the transport category ower at 3.2% reflecting the absence of further adjustments on prices of RON95 petrol, diesel and LPG in the quarter.



“Inflation in the food and non-alcoholic beverages category, however, rose to 5.3% during the quarter, mainly due to higher prices in the fish and seafood subcategory,” Bank Negara said.

Economists said the latest data confirmed earlier reports of the country's growth being on a slower trend largely due to the drop in external demand as global growth slowed.

They said this trend would continue into the first half of this year before recovering gradually in the second half as conditions globally improved with more clarity on the issues surrounding the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.

CIMB Investment Bank Bhd economic research head Lee Heng Guie told StarBiz that the main drag to growth in the fourth quarter and the whole year was the volatile external environment which resulted in stagnant demand for consumer electronics.

He said domestic demand would continue to sustain the economy although there was “a slight let-up” in consumer spending. “The question is how sustainable is consumption going to be and this will depend on key drivers such as commodity prices and income,” Lee said, noting that the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research consumer sentiments index was trending down.

“In summary, we see quite uneven growth in the first half of this year before the economy picks up in the second half,” he said, expecting full-year GDP to come in at 3.8%.

AmResearch Sdn Bhd director of economic research Manokaran Mottain said the latest data showed that the “fear factor” was rising with households becoming more cautious about spending.

However, he was more sanguine compared to his peers where exports were concerned, pointing to the export growth in goods and services (where the current account suplus, although narrowing in the fourth quarter, stood at RM22bil for the year) but said the data showed the economy was geared to domestic activity with government handouts playing a crucial role in supporting consumption.

“Going forward, well-crafted domestic strategies and the timely rollout of the Economic Transformation Programme projects will now be more urgent as they will create multiplier effects especially in the services sector,” Manokaran said.

He added that the data clearly showed that the economy, while experiencing moderating growth, was not “falling off the cliff” with full-year growth in 2012 coming in at 5%. “The worst-case scenario is global growth dropping to below 3% and project implementation delays at home, which means growth of around 4%,” Manokaran said.

Meanwhile Affin Investment Bank Bhd chief economist Alan Tan said growth this year would still be affected despite signs of nascent recovery in the United States and the improvement in global purchasing managers' indices.

“For this year, the first half will still show signs of moderation in exports as consumer electronics demand slows down,” he said, adding that growth for the full year would still be a healthy 4% considering the challenges.

For Bank Negara statements click here

Malaysia should do pretty okay

Making a Point - By Jagdev Singh Sidhu

THE report card for the economy in 2011 is out and by all accounts, Malaysia did pretty okay.

With the official forecast of growth at between 5% to 5.5%, there was much scepticism throughout 2011 whether that could be achieved. Who can blame the tea-leave readers out there whose job is to forecast where the economy is heading?

There was so much external fear with Europe on the brink, America seeing greater economic trouble and China teetering on a bubble bursting that expectations were slashed, and on average far less than what the Government had predicted.

As it turns out, maybe after the gravity-defying performance in the third quarter where the gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.8%, people began to say “hold on. Maybe things aren't so bleak.”

As it turns out, they were mostly right when the GDP data was released yesterday.

The economy expanded by 5.2% in the fourth quarter and for the whole year, growth was 5.1%. There are numbers where things could be better. Industrial production and export growth isn't the best.

 

But what drove the economy upwards was domestic demand, basically what the Government, people and companies spend and invest.

Domestic demand jumped 10.5% in the fourth quarter compared with 9% in the third. Capital investments surged 8.5% compared with 6.1% in the previous quarter and higher investments will mean more production, jobs and better economic strength.

The troubles of Europe might have lost its fear factor and America appears to be repairing itself steadily. There are reasons to be more optimistic but the official tune has turned, surprisingly, a little sour.

Bank Negara in its statement said; “Growth prospects, however, have become increasingly uncertain with the emergence of greater downside risks.”

The warning calls for more caution but there is still enough policy measures to keep domestic demand intact.

There are policies of putting cash in the hands of the people through direct cash handouts. There is a base effect from the consumption boom to worry about and whether that can continue into 2012.

But there are indicators out there to suggest domestic demand might still do well but maybe not at the same breakneck speed.

First, there is the stock market. Yes, people might say its not a perfect barometer of what an economy is doing but it does show there is confidence in how corporate Malaysia might be performing.

With direct investments abroad by Malaysian companies jumping to RM14.4bil in the third quarter from RM12.9bil previously, it shows Malaysian companies are taking advantage of growth opportunities outside Malaysia. That can point to higher profits and maybe salaries in the future.

The other is property. We might have been cautious last year about property prices falling off the cliff at some point in 2012 but there is no indication that might happen. Prices might soften but if we were to see our neighbours down south, it might not freeze the market.

For January, Singapore registered the highest sales of private homes in the past 14 months, despite increasing clamps on foreigners buying homes there.

With jobs steady and likely to increase with more investments being made, the stock market doing alright and property prices holding firm, these are ingredients that will allow people to continue spending.

If the Private Sector Retirement Age Bill gets passed, that should create more consumption by people whose earnings lifespan will increase by a further five years. The mass rapid transit system which is kicking off will also boost construction and the GDP.

Economists do wonder if the growth forecast of 5% to 6% for 2012 will be maintained given the risks and challenges. There might be a revision downwards in March but whatever the case, Malaysia like last year, should do pretty okay.

● Deputy news editor Jagdev Singh Sidhu is lapping up the Linsanity! Jeremy Lin's play for the New York Knicks has been a fantastic story. Hope that continues until he meets the Detroit Pistons.