Rumblings of change

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By BUNN NAGARA

With the fast-rising giant that is today’s China, few established things can be assumed to be the same.

EVENTS that have become established through routine tend not to create a fuss, whatever the contentious issue may be.

However, when routine events produce surprising results, the implications may multiply exponentially. Such is the case with annual US arms sales to Taiwan, and China’s angry reactions to them.

Even though different years may see different combinations of disagreements between Beijing and Washington, the arms sales drama played out between the two capitals over a largely silent Taipei is an annual soap opera worth noting for the scale of its implications.

US plans to sell Taiwan US$6.4bil (RM20.3bil) of weapons last year strained relations between Beijing and Washington badly. Not only was this the largest amount in nearly 20 years, it came together with several other disagreements at the time.

The result was that Beijing suspended military relations with the US from January, besides considering sanctions against private US arms makers involved. The sale was a left-over from the preceding Bush administration’s policy that the Obama White House had tried to usher through.

This year it was “arms sales to Taiwan time” in Washington again. Taiwan had asked for a considerable package, but the US had been having second thoughts.

Taipei had sought a range of new weapons including a new fleet of F-16 jet fighters. But this time Washington said no, mindful of Beijing’s ire.

Instead of the new F-16s, Taiwan will instead get US$5.85bil (RM18.5bil) of “upgrades” for its existing fleet. That in turn led to some bipartisan criticism of the Obama administration in Congress.

Interestingly, Taiwan did not complain about the downgraded weapons sales. Instead it officially congratulated Washington for “going ahead” with its arms sales programme, all too aware of its weak position in the strategic triangle.

For China, any US military aid to Taiwan is still military assistance that could be used to attack the mainland, so Beijing protested all the same. But the atmosphere this time has become less antagonistic.

Just as the US had said no to Taiwan, albeit within limits, China’s protests were largely limited to news media commentaries and defence establishment statements. Both the US and China have come to a new understanding of each other’s concerns and their mutual interests.

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi assured US businessmen in New York that bilateral relations would continue to grow, right after asking Washington to stop the jet upgrades. Those upgrades were not going to stop, especially when they were already a softer alternative to the full-blown sale of new F-16s, and China seemed satisfied enough with that.



Military might

The other issues at stake this year include China’s own military development, of which China watchers in the US are taking due note. However, a more significant factor for the US is a possible run on the dollar given that so much of US wealth, and loans, lies in China’s hands.

For its part, China is arranging for its next president, Xi Jinping, to visit Washington later this year. That means no souring of relations with the US is to be advised.

The US itself is gearing up for a presidential election next year. Washington is therefore understandably on its toes for now in regard to its relations with a fast-rising China.

All of this seems to leave some of the smaller countries in East Asia somewhat disoriented. Accustomed to US military and diplomatic dominance in the region for more than half a century, any sign of the US receding into the Pacific distance can be disconcerting for them.

This applies particularly to those countries that had hosted US military bases for decades.

Two days ago, the Philippines tried to form an Asean front by establishing a panel of legal experts in dealing with China’s claim over disputed islands in the South China Sea. The government of President Benigno Aquino III has consistently been active on this issue, notwithstanding the limited response it has received.

One reason for the apparent lack of Asean enthusiasm for Aquino’s plans is that he is trying to tackle a huge and long-established issue as Asean’s youngest leader with no clear direction.

Another reason is that Manila is sending confusing if not also conflicting signals over the issue. Last week the Philippines announced that Aquino would bring the issue of the disputed islands to Japan on his visit to Tokyo.

Japan has no involvement with claims to disputed islands in the South China Sea, although like the Philippines and Taiwan it has a security arrangement with the United States. Those arrangements vary in their terms and degree of US obligations, so taken together they are asymmetrical and non-comparable.

There is a sense in Asean that if disputes within Asean have yet to be solved within and by Asean, they are unlikely to be solved outside Asean.

To compound the confusion further, President Aquino was in Beijing from late last month to early this month soliciting for Chinese investment in the Philippines. From 2009 to 2010, bilateral trade grew more than 35%.

Aquino then said the trade was mostly in China’s favour, and he would like to balance it. He is more likely to succeed there than in competing claims over territory.

A current strand of opinion among US strategic thinkers is that the Philippines is beginning to see China as a “big brother” substitute for the US in East Asia. But given Manila’s actions and policies so far, nobody is likely to know what the Philippines wants to do, least of all Filipino lawmakers themselves.

NASA satellite falls back to Earth !

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Dead satellite likely fell into Pacific Ocean--maybe

By: William Harwood, CNET

NASA's decommissioned 6.3-ton Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, out of gas and out of control after two decades in space, plunged back into the atmosphere early Saturday, heating up, breaking apart, and presumably showering chunks of debris along a 500-mile-long Pacific Ocean impact zone.
Maybe.

U.S. Strategic Command radar tracking indicated re-entry would occur around 12:16 a.m. EDT (GMT-4) Saturday as the satellite was descending across the Pacific Ocean on a southwest-to-northeast trajectory approaching Canada's west coast. If re-entry occurred on or before the predicted time, any wreckage that survived atmospheric heating almost certainly fell into the Pacific Ocean.

NASA's derelict Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite fell to Earth Saturday, presumably into the Pacific Ocean west of Canada. But it's not yet a sure thing.

"Because we don't know where the re-entry point actually was, we don't know where the debris field might be," said Nicholas Johnson, chief orbital debris scientist at NASA's Johnson Space Center.

"If the re-entry point was at the (predicted time) of 04:16 GMT, then all that debris wound up in the Pacific Ocean. If the re-entry point occurred earlier than that, practically the entire pass before 04:16...is over water. So the only way debris could have probably reached land would be if the re-entry occurred after 04:16."

Johnson said amateur satellite watchers in the U.S. northwest and the Canadian southwest were "looking to observe UARS as it came over. Every one of those attempts came up negative. That would suggest that the re-entry did, in fact, occur before it reached the North American coast, which, again, would mean most of this debris fell into the Pacific."

But it's not yet certain and it's equally possible a delayed re-entry resulted in debris falling somewhere in northern Canada or elsewhere along the trajectory.

"We may never know," Johnson told reporters in an afternoon teleconference.

The centerpiece of a $750 million mission, the Upper Atmosphere Research satellite was launched from the shuttle Discovery at 12:23 a.m. EDT (GMT-4) on Sept. 15, 1991. The solar-powered satellite studied a wide variety of atmospheric phenomena, including the depletion of Earth's ozone layer 15 to 30 miles up.

The long-lived satellite was decommissioned in 2005, and one side of its orbit was lowered using the last of its fuel to hasten re-entry and minimize the chances of orbital collisions that could produce even more orbital debris. No more fuel was available for maneuvering and the satellite's re-entry was "uncontrolled."

As with all satellites in low-Earth orbit, UARS was a victim of atmospheric drag, the slow but steady reduction in velocity, and thus altitude, caused by flying through the tenuous extreme upper atmosphere at some five miles per second.

UARS' final trajectory as it neared the discernible atmosphere proved difficult to predict. The descent slowed somewhat Friday, presumably because the spacecraft's orientation changed. As the day wore on, the predicted impact time slipped from Friday afternoon to early Saturday.

Johnson said falling satellites typically begin breaking up at an altitude of around 50 miles. In the case of UARS, computer analysis indicated about 26 pieces of debris would survive to reach the surface, spread out along a 500-mile-long down-range footprint. Johnson said the heel of the footprint, the area where the lightest debris might fall, is typically 300 miles or so beyond the breakup point.

But so far, "we've got no reports of anyone seeing anything that we believe are credible," Johnson said.

Johnson told reporters last week he expected most of the satellite to burn up as it slammed into the dense lower atmosphere at more than 17,000 mph. But computer software used to analyze possible re-entry outcomes predicted 26 pieces of debris would survive to impact the surface, the largest weighing some 330 pounds. Impact velocities were expected to range from 30 mph to 240 mph.

"We looked at those 26 pieces and how big they are, and we've looked at the fact they can hit anywhere in the world between 57 north and 57 south, and we looked at what the population density of the world is," he said. "Numerically, it comes out to a chance of 1 in 3,200 that one person anywhere in the world might be struck by a piece of debris. Those are obviously very, very low odds that anybody's going to be impacted by this debris."

For comparison, some 42.5 tons of wreckage from the shuttle Columbia hit the ground in a footprint stretching from central Texas to Louisiana when the orbiter broke apart during re-entry in 2003. No one on the ground was injured and no significant property damage was reported.

An astronaut picture of the UARS satellite being deployed in 1991.

Photograph courtesy NASA

An astronaut picture of the UARS satellite being deployed in 1991.

Photograph courtesy NASA

Traci Watson for National Geographic News 

Defying predictions one last time, NASA's doomed UARS satellite dove through Earth's atmosphere late last night over the North Pacific Ocean, off the U.S. West Coast, the space agency says. (Also see "Space Debris: Five Unexpected Objects That Fell to Earth.")

As recently as Friday morning, U.S. officials had forecast that the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, or UARS, would fall out of the sky in the late afternoon or early evening Friday, eastern time.
(See "NASA Satellite Falling Faster Due to Solar Activity.")

But the satellite shifted position as it tumbled toward the planet, forcing scientists to throw out their earlier time estimates.

NASA said early Saturday that UARS fell out of orbit sometime between 11:23 p.m. and 1:09 a.m. ET.
Amateur satellite trackers in places such as San Antonio, Texas, and northern Minnesota reported catching glimpses of UARS as it made its final, doomed circles around Earth.

Though the spacecraft plummeted over the Pacific, it's still not clear exactly where debris from the satellite has landed. Pieces of the satellite will be strung along a debris "footprint" stretching 500 miles (800 kilometers).

So far there are "no reports of any damage or injury," NASA said via Twitter close to midday Saturday.
Satellite Pieces Not For Sale

UARS, which weighed more than six tons, was lofted into orbit by the space shuttle Discovery in 1991. The craft recorded data on Earth's atmosphere until it was switched off in 2005.

Some 1,100 pounds (500 kilograms) of debris from the satellite were projected to survive the superheated descent through the atmosphere. The biggest intact piece, NASA said, would probably be a 300-pound (140-kilogram) chunk of the spacecraft's structure.

NASA warned the curious not to touch any pieces of the spacecraft that may have made it to the ground, because of the risk of sharp edges.

The space agency also tried to head off sales of UARS remnants on Internet auction sites such as eBay.
"Any pieces of UARS found are still the property of the country that made it," NASA warned via Twitter this morning. "You'll have to give 'em back to U.S."

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Lifeless satellite falls back to Earth

(China Daily)

Junk left from colliding satellites floats through space in this computer-generated image. NASA confirmed that two communication satellites from the United States and Russia collided 800 kilometers above northern Siberia on Sept 10. [Provided to China Daily]

NASA assures public that there is little chance of getting hit by debris

WASHINGTON - Fragments from an old 6-ton NASA satellite hurtled toward Earth on Friday, while the exact site of the crash-landing remained a mystery into the final hours.

The US space agency has stressed that the risk is "extremely small" that any of the 26 chunks that are expected to survive the fiery re-entry into Earth's atmosphere will hit one of the planet's seven billion people a one in 3,200 chance.


"Re-entry is possible sometime during the afternoon or early evening of Sept 23, Eastern Daylight Time," NASA said on its website on Thursday night.

That would be early morning Saturday Beijing time.

"It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 24 hours."

The influence of solar flares and the tumbling motion of the satellite make narrowing down the landing a particularly difficult task, experts said as the Internet lit up with rumors of where and when it would fall.

The US Department of Defense and NASA were busy tracking the debris and keeping all federal disaster agencies informed, a NASA spokeswoman said.

The Federal Aviation Administration issued a notice on Thursday to pilots and flight crews of the potential hazard and urged them to "report any observed falling space debris to the appropriate (air traffic control) facility and include position, altitude, time and direction of debris observed," CNN said.

The satellite was launched in 1991 and was designed to provide data for better understanding Earth's upper atmosphere and the effects of natural and human interactions on the atmosphere. The satellite was deactivated in 2005 as it ran out of fuel and was left orbiting Earth.



Orbital debris experts say space junk of this size from broken-down satellites and spent rockets tends to fall back to Earth about once a year, though this is the biggest NASA satellite to fall in three decades.

NASA's Skylab crashed into western Australia in 1979.

The surviving chunks of the tour-bus sized satellite will include titanium fuel tanks, beryllium housing and stainless steel batteries and wheel rims. The parts may weigh as little as one kg or as much as 158 kg, NASA said.

Orbital debris scientists say the pieces will fall somewhere between 57 north latitude and 57 south latitude, which covers most of the populated world.

The debris field is expected to span 800 square kilometers.

Pang Zhihao, a researcher from the Chinese Research Institute of Space Technology, told Xinhua that the crash could have been avoided had the satellite been put into a higher orbit, or manipulated to drop in the South Pacific when it had abundant fuel.

Pang said most spacecraft will incinerate upon re-entering Earth's atmosphere, and the debris will mostly likely fall into the ocean or hit an uninhabited area.

NASA has also said that in 50 years of space exploration no one has ever been confirmed injured by falling space junk.

The craft contains no fuel and so is not expected to explode on impact.

"No consideration ever was given to shooting it down," NASA spokeswoman Beth Dickey said.
NASA has warned anyone who comes across what they believe may be debris not to touch it but to contact authorities for assistance.

Space law professor Frans von der Dunk from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln's College of Law told AFP that the United States will likely have to pay damages to any country where the debris falls.

"The damage to be compensated is essentially without limit," von der Dunk said, referring to the 1972 Liability Convention to which the United States is one of 80 signatories.

"Damage here concerns 'loss of life, personal injury or other impairment of health; or loss of or damage to property of States or of persons, natural or juridical, or property of international intergovernmental organizations,'" he said, reading from the agreement.

However, the issue could get thornier if the debris causes damage in a country that is not part of the convention.

"The number of countries so far theoretically at risk is rather large, so there may be an issue if damage would be caused to a state not being party to the Liability Convention," he said.

AFP-Xinhua

Huge Tumbling Satellite Could Fall to Earth Over US Tonight or Saturday, NASA Says

by Tariq Malik, SPACE.com Managing Editor

The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite is in the grasp of the remote manipulator system end effector above the payload bay of the Earth-orbiting Discovery during STS-48 pre-deployment checkout procedures. CREDIT: NASA Johnson Space Center View full size image

This story was updated at 2:04 p.m. ET

A huge, dead satellite tumbling to Earth is falling slower than expected, and may now plummet down somewhere over the United States tonight or early Saturday, despite forecasts that it would miss North America entirely, NASA officials now say.

The 6 1/2-ton Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) was expected to fall to Earth sometime this afternoon (Sept. 23), but changes in the school bus-size satellite's motion may push it to early Saturday, according to NASA's latest observations of the spacecraft.

 "The satellite's orientation or configuration apparently has changed, and that is now slowing its descent," NASA officials wrote in a morning status update today. "There is a low probability any debris that survives re-entry will land in the United States, but the possibility cannot be discounted because of this changing rate of descent." [Complete coverage of NASA's falling satellite]

NASA expects about 26 large pieces of the UARS spacecraft to survive re-entry through Earth's atmosphere and reach the planet's surface. The biggest piece should weigh about 300 pounds. The spacecraft is the largest NASA satellite to fall from space uncontrolled since 1979. [6 Biggest Spacecraft to Fall Uncontrolled From Space]

NASA officials have said the the chances that a piece of UARS debris hits and injures one of the nearly 7 billion people on the planet are about 1 in 3,200. However, the personal odds of you being struck by UARS satellite debris are actually about 1 in several trillion, NASA officials have said.

As of 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) today, the UARS satellite was flying in an orbit of about 100 miles by 105 miles (160 kilometers by 170 km), and dropping.  NASA launched the UARS satellite in 1991 to study Earth's ozone layer and upper atmosphere. The satellite was decommissioned in 2005.

"Re-entry is expected late Friday, Sept. 23, or early Saturday, Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time," NASA officials wrote. "Solar activity is no longer the major factor in the satellite's rate of descent."

The sun has had an extremely active week, one that has included several solar flares. High solar activity can cause the Earth's atmosphere to heat and expand, which can increase drag on a low-flying satellite like UARS, making it fall faster.

Get a snapshot view of NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), which will fall to Earth in 2011, in this SPACE.com infographic.
CREDIT: Karl Tate, SPACE.com Contributor

View full size image

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Too Many Bosses, Too Few Leaders !

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Leadership among bosses

Review by ABBY WONG

Title: Too Many Bosses, Too Few Leaders: The Three Essential Principles You Need to Become an Extraordinary Leader

Author: Rajeev Peshawaria
Publisher: Free Press

THIS is a simple book yet extremely powerful. The title sounds more like a clich but the author revitalises it, making it highly relevant, significantly thought provoking and incredibly resonating. A roadmap for managers of every level in any organisation, I urge you to read this book for its tremendous benefits.

Of all the bosses you have had in your career, how many do you consider truly great leaders? One might reply, “Not too many.” That is true for bosses these days are merely bosses, not leaders. And if you yourself are a boss, how do your subordinates rate you? One might be tempted to ask before attempting to answer, “Does it matter?” Well, it does. While bad leadership can go undetected, it can cost organisations tremendous amount of money. Again, are you a good leader?

You're not one if, according to author Rajeev Peshawaria, you don't take it upon yourself to dig deep and find solutions to the most pressing problems of our times.

Yet there is more than just devoting yourself. Leaders who achieve exceptional results despite the toughest challenges are able to do one simple thing to harness human energy toward a shared purpose. This book is about how to discover, or rediscover if you have lost it in the face of adversity, the energy you have once had to fuel yourself as well as many others to create sustainable collective success.



Again, if you think that is hackneyed, don't. Peshawaria, having spent more than twenty years working alongside top executives at some of the biggest corporations in the world, knows precisely what makes and how to be an effective leader. His journey to great leadership is personal and the steps he outlines are simple and intuitive which allows continuing prowess that separates tomorrow's leaders from today's bosses.

Leadership is a journey so are the rewards. Because leaders are in it for a long haul, the first step leaders must take is to identify and be clearly convinced of the underlying purpose or values of their leadership endeavour. The emphasis Peshawaria places on this initial commitment is profound because great leadership indeed cannot be pursued without laser-sharp purpose and values. Furthermore, it is this purpose that defines one's leadership identity and gives the lasting energy to stay on course. But if your purpose is to lead a life enriched by everyday material pleasures gained through your positions, then this book is not for you. You are better off remaining a boss.

Do something different in your life for each economic trajectory, which we most likely will soon witness when technology takes us onto a whole new horizon in solving worldwide problems, gives leadership opportunity. If you have a purpose, like Howard Schultz (chairman and CEO of Starbucks) did back in the 90s, you will have a shot to lead a life enriched by not only materialistic rewards but also satisfaction and meaning.

The same goes to Jeff Bezos of Amazon.com. Bezos had a purpose. He then found a channel (a firm), defined the brain (story) of the business, wired it with bones (strategy) that is well understood by everyone in the firm, and aligned it with nerves (cultures). On the outset, brains, bones and nerves maybe the only framework required to energise a business.

Underpinning each pillar of the framework, however, are threads that weave successes and needles that prick them. As a way to demonstrate management of these threads and needles, Peshawaria provides from a large pool of stories on leadership and managerial experiences. Drawn from the little-known philanthropic organisation called Acumen to the highly regarded Goldman Sachs, lessons on characters, fortitude, values, processes and practices abound.

They, too, are simple but by no means simplistic. They are not detailed but in no way less insightful. They help provoke ideas that leaders can use in managing their firms and finding their own paths to great leadership.

Are leaders born or made? Peshawaria thinks while some may be born, leaders can certainly be made as well if they have the will to lead. But do all leaders understand good leadership? No? Read this book.

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