Malaysian pride soars with the ringgit

 

It has been a while since Malaysians began to feel some pride. Certainly, the strengthening of the ringgit against the 

There is bo doubt that the country's political stability under PM Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahlim is one of the main reasons for Malaysis's economic success.

KUALA LUMPUR: It has been a while since Malaysians began to feel some pride. Certainly, the strengthening of the ringgit against the dollar has made a big impact on national confidence.

The Malaysian ringgit, which continues its upward trend, has surged to its highest level against the greenback since March 2022.

Not only is it the best-performing currency in the region, but it also became the world's top-performing currency this month as it rode on the US Federal Reserve's large interest rate cut.

The comeback story of Malaysia, underpinned by an economy that has expanded at its fastest rate in the past 19 months, has attracted global attention.

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There is no doubt that the country's political stability under Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is one of the main reasons for Malaysia's economic success compared to Thailand and Indonesia, which fell by the wayside politically.

The ringgit climbed to a 30-month high recently of 4.1815 against the US dollar recently. It ended last week, closing on Friday at 4.1230/1280.

Now, the speculations are that the ringgit could go up to RM4 against the dollar as BMI, a unit of the Fitch group, revised its year-end forecast for the ringgit from 4.55 against the US dollar to 4.0, reflecting the local currency's robust performance in the third quarter of 2024.

Looking beyond the six-month period, BMI even predicted the ringgit to strengthen by nine per cent next year, reaching 3.55 against the dollar by the end of 2025.

It sounds very good, but as we all know, the ringgit depends very much on external factors, especially on the US Fed interest rate trajectory and mainland China's growth, which is our biggest trading partner.

Over the medium view, there will always be some profit taking, which would affect our rate, but it is healthy and natural.

At one time last year, there was fear that the ringgit could hit as low as RM5 against the dollar, but now the ringgit has appreciated more than 12 per cent against the dollar.

Last week, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that "for Malaysians, the exchange rate of the ringgit against the US dollar, as well as regional currencies like the Singapore dollar and the Thai baht, serves as an indicator for how well the economy is doing and reflects confidence in the government."

Whatever the criticisms and misgivings that have been levelled against Anwar Ibrahim for his purported delays in reforms and even making compromises with the conservative groups who didn't vote for him in the last general election, he is on the right track for sure.

Malaysia is politically stable, and his Madani Unity government isn't going to give way soon. His opponents must wait for another three years to challenge him despite the many political noises generated, which Malaysians have grown used to.

The SCMP quoted Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid, the chief economist at Bank Muamalat Malaysia, saying, "The stability has facilitated more effective policymaking and implementation, boosting confidence in the ringgit.

"This has created better reviews by the credit rating agencies and global investment banks."

Reuters reported a news article under the heading "Malaysia shines as foreign investors return, peers stumble."

In its Aug 22 article, the news agency said, "Malaysia is fast becoming a haven in Southeast Asia, and foreign investors are returning to a long-overlooked market as a confluence of improving growth, stable government and rising currency sets it apart among peers grappling with political flux."

"Foreigners have steadily poured more money into Malaysian debt and stocks this year. In July, as political troubles brewed in Thailand and Indonesia, they pumped US$1.75 billion into Malaysian debt markets – the highest in a year.

"The stock market, Bursa Malaysia, is gunning for its strongest yearly performance in well over a decade."

At home, while the cost of living remains a big concern among many Malaysians, the inflation rate has decreased to 1.90 per cent in August from 2 per cent in July 2024.

Trading Economics reported that the inflation rate is expected to be 1.50 per cent by the end of this year, according to its global macro models and expectations from analysts.

More importantly, the number of jobs in the first quarter of this year increased by 1.5 per cent to 8.94 million – the highest recorded since 2018, according to the Employment Statistics, First Quarter 2024.

Chief Statistician Datuk Ser Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin was quoted by Bernama as saying that 8.81 million jobs were recorded in the first quarter of 2023.

HR Asia reported that Malaysia's job market remains robust throughout 2024, with "companies continuing to hire in line with ongoing economic expansion."

Malaysians now look forward to the annual economic report as well as the Budget to be presented in Parliament next month to have a clearer and more detailed idea of what's in store for us.

 Datuk Seri Wong Chun Wai, an award-winning veteran journalist with over 40 years experience, is the chairman of Bernama.

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Malaysia, a magnet for international students

 

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PETALING JAYA: Malaysia has the potential to attract more international students due to its quality education and affordable cost of living.

Malaysian Association of Private Colleges and Universities (Mapcu) president Datuk Parmjit Singh said factors that encourage students to study in Malaysia include the availability of high quality education programmes system delivered by universities with a strong international outlook and well-developed campuses and facilities.

“Tuition fees are relatively lower... (The same goes for the) living cost in Malaysia,” he said, adding that Malaysia also offers a student-friendly social ecosystem to provide the sort of lifestyle sought by international students.

“The tightening of regulations for international students is happening in a few countries, with some mainly due to shortages of accommodation in these countries.

ALSO READ: Growing worry over rising cost of studying overseas

“This does present opportunities for Malaysia to attract those students who are now unable to study in countries such as Australia, the United Kingdom and Canada.

“However, factors such as opportunities to work while studying and more inclusive post-study work opportunities – all of which are available to international students in those countries – may need to be enhanced in order to encourage these students to select Malaysia as a preferred alternative destination,” said Parmjit, who is also Asia Pacific University of Technology & Innovation (APU)chief executive officer (CEO).

Vice-Chancellors’ Council for Private Universities chairman Prof Mushtak Al-Atabi said in order to attract international students to our shores, Malaysia should make itself a more accessible destination.

“There are multiple countries in the region that are competing with Malaysia to be the regional education hub,” said Prof Mushtak, who is also Heriot-Watt University Malaysia provost and CEO.

National Association of Private Educational Institutions secretary-general Dr Teh Choon Jin said it is important for Malaysia to maintain a good reputation in terms of treatment of international students or foreigners in order to entice students to come here.

ALSO READ: INTERACTIVE: How the jobs mismatch may derail Malaysia’s drive to become a high-income nation

“If there is any negative report of ill treatment of foreigners, it may discourage potential international students from pursuing their studies in Malaysia,” he said.

Dr Teh also said these students may face challenges in finding employment opportunities in Malaysia after graduation as there are limited numbers for international graduates, compared to those in countries with more robust job markets.

On the plus side, Malaysia offers great cost savings due to the ringgit’s exchange rate being low compared with countries such as the UK, Australia, Canada and the United States, he added.

Malaysia’s location in South-East Asia with good connectivity to other countries within the region and those beyond the region also makes it an attractive destination to experience Asia, Dr Teh said.

He added that the nation is perceived as a safe country, Muslim-friendly and has a wide variety of food catering to different needs.

“Malaysia has relatively straightforward visa regulations compared to some other countries, making it easier for students to obtain study visas,” said Teh, who is also APU registrar.

Education Malaysia Global Services (EMGS) CEO Novie Tajuddin said the number of international students coming to Malaysia has been increasing over the years.

He said the principal body that manages the movement of international students in Malaysia, including facilitating visa processing, had received 65,207 applications by the end of 2023.

This is a huge increase compared with 10,453 applications in 2020.

“Malaysia is attractive to international students as (the living cost in the country) is affordable... The people are (also) friendly, and we are advanced in terms of transnational education,” he said when contacted.

“EMGS continues to promote our education, opening the door for new areas, looking into existing policy and working closely with the Higher Education Ministry and to work with other relevant ministries,”

Novie stressed.He also posited that the country could benefit from the tightening of regulations governing international students in other countries such as Canada, Australia and the UK.

Novie highlighted that Malaysia offers a graduate pass for students from 25 countries, including Brunei, Singapore, South Korea, Japan and Australia.

This year, he said, China and India were added to the list of countries that offer the pass.

“The graduate pass allows international students to stay for a year after completing their study.

“In this time, they can go on vacation, progress to the next study level or work in Malaysia,” he added.

The graduate pass is a long-term social visit pass that allows holders to gain multiple entries into the country.

The said pass is offered to international graduates who have completed their degree programmes at local universities and other higher education institutes

Source link:.https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2024/04/10/a-magnet-for-international-students

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Grand plans for Malaysians working in Singapore

 

All-time high: The Singapore dollar surged to a new high against the ringgit two days ago. - Thomas Yong/The Star

JOHOR BARU: Many Malaysians working across the Causeway are planning holidays and home renovations as the Singapore dollar surged to a new high against the ringgit.

Jason Wong, 27, said he felt that his decision to cross the border daily to work was the right one as he now has more cash in hand due to the strong currency exchange rate of S$1 to RM3.50.

“One by one, many of my peers and relatives had gone to Singapore for work, which led to my decision to do the same. I started working there in March after finding it difficult to get a stable job in Johor Baru.“I start my commute at around 6am and reach home after 8pm every day. It is tiring but the exchange rate makes it worthwhile. I can give more money to my elderly parents now that I have extra disposable income,” he told The Star.

Wong added that he was also saving to take his parents on a holiday for the first time next year.

The Singapore dollar shot to a new high of 3.5086 against the ringgit on Tuesday morning.

Ardy Zainuddin, 33, who works as a purchasing executive in Singapore, was happy to have extra money to renovate his new home here.

“My wife and I have just got the keys to our new house and with a second baby on the way, anything extra is welcome,” said Ardy, who has been commuting across the border for work for the past five years.

However, he hopes that the Malaysian government would come up with policies to strengthen the ringgit.

“The strong Singapore-Malaysia currency exchange is good for those working across the border, but I am concerned that the weakening ringgit will make things more expensive for other Malaysians.

“My relatives living in Johor and Melaka have been complaining that it is costly to eat out or even cook at home. They are also hesitant to travel overseas because of the weak ringgit,” he added.

Checks by The Star at several popular money changers in the city found that they were well-stocked with the ringgit to cater to the expected higher demand.

A money changer who only wanted to be known as Wan said, “This is the first time I have seen the ringgit dip so low against the Singapore dollar in my 10 years of being in the industry.

When the exchange rate was S$1 to RM3.41 in May, our business rose by about 30% as those working across the border as well as Singaporeans rushed to buy the ringgit in large quantities,” she said.

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Whither the ringgit? US Inflation & workforce are the bigger problems

 

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Weak ringgit has lent some help to exports - The Star

Ringgit opens lower vs US$ as demand for greenback strengthens

Higher growth projected for 2023

Lee said interest rates may stay elevated for some time and expects Bank Negara to hold the OPR at the current level in 2023 and into 2024.

The commendable first-quarter showing augurs well, says the Socio-economic Research Centre

'STRUCTURAL REFORMS ARE KEY TO SUPPORTING THE ECONOMY AND RINGGIT' - Lee Heng Lee 

KUALA LUMPUR: The combination of declining exports, persistently high core inflation and cautious consumer spending will likely see the economy experiencing a moderation in growth in the second half of the year (2H23).

Despite anticipating a deceleration in economic growth in the upcoming quarters, Socio-economic Research Centre (SERC) has raised its 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection to 4.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 4.1% previously, to reflect the strength in the first-quarter (1Q23) economic growth.

The GDP expanded by 5.6% in 1Q23, exceeding the 4.8% growth achieved in 1Q22, thanks to sustained domestic demand underpinned by strong private expenditure and improvement in labour market conditions.

SERC executive director Lee Heng Guie said the robust consumer spending witnessed last year may not be replicated this year due to the high interest rate environment and more cautious consumer spending.

“The cash stimulus has already been spent and the spending boom, such as the ‘revenge spending’ that we saw post-pandemic, has already faded,” he said during SERC’S media briefing on the quarterly economic tracker for 2Q23.

Lee pointed out that the country’s exports had also started to ease as global demand weakens under the strain of high inflation and interest rates.

For 1H23, exports contracted by 4.5% y-o-y and Lee projects exports to decline by between 5% and 7% for the full year on the back of lower demand.

With these factors at play, SERC expects GDP to grow in a range of between 4% and 5% in 2H23, with consumer demand continuing to be the key growth driver in the remaining months of the year.

He added the elevated base effect in 2H22 will present another challenge to the 2H23 GDP performance.

On the overnight policy rate (OPR), Lee believes the current rate of 3% is at an “accommodative and supportive” level for sustainable economic activity.

He said interest rates may stay elevated for some time and expects Bank Negara to hold the OPR at the current level in 2023 and into 2024.

“Any change to the OPR is dependent on how resilient the economy is and how consumer inflation behaves.

“I think the current level is just right, (as) it will not significantly hurt the people.

“Structural reforms are key to supporting the economy and the ringgit.” Lee Heng Guie

“It is still supporting the economy, but does not overburden businesses and the people. Even though central banks are likely to end their rate hike cycles, it does not necessarily imply that they will reduce rates either,” he explained.

Lee expects most central banks to likely keep interest rates at current levels till inflation, both headline and core, subsides to a “comfortable range”.

In the majority of advanced economies, a comfortable range of inflation is around 2%, Lee observed. Although headline inflation has eased in Malaysia, Lee stressed the battle against inflation has not been won.

“This is because subsidy rationalisation is still on the table of the government. The government needs to address that following the state elections to control the budget deficit,” Lee noted.

Given the volatility in crude oil prices, Lee said the current oil subsidy scheme was fiscally unsustainable and would further contribute to deficits.

He added the ringgit had strengthened against the currencies of Japan, China, Australia, Taiwan and India since the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) first federal fund rate hike in March last year.

However, against the greenback, the local unit is among a basket of currencies that have experienced a significant weakening after having declined by about 7.4% since the start of the rate hike cycle.

“Structural reforms are key to supporting the economy and the ringgit,” Lee stressed.

He said the proposed progressive wage model (PWM) plan, which is currently under consideration by the government, is a right step towards a productivity-linked wage system which will foster competitiveness by forging a stronger correlation between wages and productivity.

Lee, however, contends that a more comprehensive and practical analysis should be undertaken on the plan by a tripartite body, which includes representatives from the government, employers and employees.

This is due to the presence of valid concerns and areas of uncertainty within the proposal, such as whether the PWM would be extended to foreign workers and specific sectors.

In keeping the economy resilient, Lee emphasised on the importance of private investment.

He reiterated that private investment not only helped stimulate economic growth, but also generated jobs and thus benefiting both the community and the nation as a whole.

Speaking on the US economy, Lee believes that it is still resilient, citing the strength of its labour market and wage growth as indications. However, he said consumer spending remained robust and asserts inflationary pressure.

“In the United States, headline inflation has not reached the targeted 2% level, while core inflation remains sticky.

“This is something the Fed would be observing. If there is risk of inflation resurgence, it may still continue to increase rates,” Lee said.

Globally, Lee pointed out that the purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector has continued its downtrend, sustaining below the 50-point threshold. The services sector, meanwhile, recorded a slight slowdown in its latest figures.

“We are worried the slowdown in the manufacturing sector has broadened and impacted the services sector,” Lee added.

On world trade volume and industrial production, Lee pointed out that both have been moderating, owing to slower demand. “This is why we saw a decline in exports for regional countries, including Malaysia, recently.”

The Star - StarBiz By KIRENNESH NAIR kirennesh@thestar.com.my 3 Aug 2023

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Ringgit Malaysia slides to lowest vs USD: fears of low oil prices, rate hike, rethink study options

PETALING JAYA: The ringgit has fallen to its lowest against the US dollar since August 2009 amid concerns over the impact of low oil prices on Malaysia’s economy and the timing of US interest rate hike.

At 5pm yesterday, the ringgit was quoted at 3.5425 against the US dollar, which has been gaining strength against all major currencies in the world. That represented a weakening of 10.81% for the ringgit against the US dollar in the last six months.

According to independent economist Lee Heng Guie, the ringgit would likely remain under downward pressure as investors were concerned about the impact of falling crude oil prices on Malaysia’s economy.

Malaysia, which is a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum, is seen as the biggest loser in Asean of lower oil prices.

“Being a net oil and gas exporter, it will cause a sharp slowdown in oil and gas investments and affect the Government’s ability to spend as it struggles to manage its fiscal deficit on account of falling oil revenue,” RHB Research Institute said in a recent report.

Low oil prices would result in some loss of income for Malaysia through lower dividends from state oil producer Petroliam Nasional Bhd and lower tax and excise duties. Petroleum-related revenues account for around 30%-40% of total government revenue each year.

Savings from recent subsidy reforms might not be sufficient to offset the loss in income for the Government that was looking to cut its fiscal deficit to 3% of gross domestic income (GDP) in 2015 from 3.5% of GDP this year, economists said.

There were divided views as to whether Malaysia would momentarily slip into twin deficits, a situation where an economy is running both fiscal and current deficits, in the coming months.

Brent crude oil, an international benchmark, fell to a fresh five-year low at 5pm yesterday when it was quoted at US$54.23 (RM192.11) per barrel. That represented a decline of more than half from the peak of around US$115 (RM406.80) per barrel in mid-June.

Investors are expecting the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the coming months, following the end of its third round of quantitative easing (QE3) programme last October.

QE3, which was launched in September 2012, involved the buying of long-term US Treasury bonds to push long-term interest rates low to support the country’s economic recovery.

In the last six months, the ringgit had also weakened against other regional currencies, including the Singapore dollar, against which it fell 3.63% to 2.6493. The ringgit fell 0.91% against the South Korean won to 0.3184; and 2.9% against the Indonesian rupiah to 0.02801.

Nevertheless, the ringgit had appreciated against the British pound, euro, Australian dollar and Japanese yen over the last six months.

Yesterday, the ringgit was quoted at 5.4080 against the pound, 4.2249 against the euro, 2.8541 against the Australian dollar and 2.9397 against 100 yen.

By Celilia Kok The Star/Asia News Network

Weakening ringgit forces parents to rethink study options

PETALING JAYA: Parents planning to send their children to study overseas, particularly the United States, are beginning to feel the pinch with the ringgit continuing its slide against the greenback.

Many are reconsidering their options by looking at other destinations for their children’s higher studies.

Some are also planning to shorten the study period of their children to cope with the extra costs incurred, while there are those who are thinking of asking their children to take up part time jobs to help finance their education.

The ringgit has slipped to its lowest since August 2009 at 3.5280 to the US dollar.

A media practitioner said he enrolled his daughter for an American degree programme with a local college two years ago.

“She’s doing a twinning course with two of the four years to be spent in the US. At that time, the ringgit was holding up fairly well against the US dollar.

“With the ringgit’s slide now, I’ll have to cough up much more to finance my daughter’s studies in the US,” he said.

Retired pilot Wong Yoon Fatt, a father of two, said he planned to send his 18-year-old daughter overseas as he had saved up funds for his children’s education.

“However, if the ringgit continues to weaken, I may shorten the duration of their studies abroad. From three years, I may consider cutting it to just a year or two abroad,” he said, adding that he would encourage his children to take up part-time jobs during their vacation.

Housewife Noorhaidah Mohd Ibrahim, 61, said if the economic situation worsened, she was prepared to send her 21-year-old daughter Tasneem to study at a local university.

“If we can get the same quality of education here, then why not?” she said, adding that she was planning to send Tasneem to pursue higher education in Britain.

Mass communication student S. Samhitha, 21, said she had a choice of continuing her final-year overseas but opted to stay back because of increasing costs to study abroad. “I can still get the same degree here. However, the thing I will miss is the exposure of studying in a different country,” she said.

Law student Janani Silvanathan, who is in Britain, said she would feel the pinch of the weakening ringgit in her next term when she would have to travel back and forth from Bristol to London weekly.

“Transportation will be more expensive. A train ticket from Bristol to London costs RM180 each now,” the 24-year-old lamented. A 20-year-old film making student who identified herself as Stephanie said she was planning to study in Canada but would have take up a part-time job.

“The depreciating ringgit will not severely affect me but my parents will definitely incur higher costs,” she said.

Law student Lisa J. Ariffin, 25, who is studying in Cardiff, Wales, said she was more careful in spending money, even on food.

“I can’t eat out as often and will always look out for good bargains or offers,” she said.

By Yuen Meikeng The Star/Asia News Network

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Stronger Malaysian ringgit seen

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Stronger ringgit seen

BY DALJIT DHESI daljit@thestar.com.my

Economists expect the ringgit to strengthen further against the US dollar

PETALING JAYA: Economists expect the ringgit to further strengthen against the greenback and attract extensive capital inflow into the region. It will also lead to possible further hikes in statutory reserve requirement (SRR) to stem excess liquidity if the global financial volatility worsens following the US credit rating downgrade.

Standard and Poor's (S&P's) had last Friday downgraded the world's largest economy a notch lower to AA+ from a triple A rating since the credit rating was issued to the US in 1917.

MIDF Research chief economist Anthony Dass said he expected the ringgit to strengthen against the US dollar at an average 2.97 for the year supported by a combination of healthy economic fundamentals and strong inflow of liquidity.

Stronger ringgit: Dass expects the ringgit to trade at an average 2.97 to the greenback for the year.

He added that the stronger ringgit against the US dollar would help cushion some level of imported inflation, which would give some breathing space for Bank Negara on further raising the overnight policy rate (OPR), which now stood at 3%.

“We have now placed a 30% odd for the OPR to stay at 3% for the rest of the year and expect the central bank to raise it by another 25 basis points (bps) in the second half of this year,” Dass said.

Much depends on the direction of the ringgit, the global commodity and food prices, liquidity and whether there will be further relaxation of subsidies.

Underpinned by healthy economic fundamentals and benefiting from the regional net inflow of funds, liquidity inflow into Malaysia has been strong, forcing the central bank to raise the SRR by 300 bps to 4% between April-June 2011. SRR are non-interest deposits kept at the central bank to mop up excess liquidity in the financial system.

With lingering uncertainties on the global front, Dass said he expected Malaysia, like other Asian ex-Japan economies, to continue to see inflow of funds. While this would strengthen the ringgit, he said ample liquidity would add pressure on inflation, adding that he was not ruling out the possibility of further hikes in SRR by another 50 bps to 100 bps should the inflow of liquidity pose a problem.

RAM Holdings economist Jason Fong, in response to a query from Starbiz, said if the financial volatility in the US turned out to be very significant and persistent, the impact on its external markets, including Malaysia, could be substantial.



One of the worst case scenarios would entail extensive capital flight from US-centric assets, he said. In this scenario, he added that there would be considerable decline in the value of the US dollar, causing an appreciation of US-denominated assets, particularly commodities.

The US financial volatility might also cause investors to put their money into safe haven assets such as precious metals, like gold, Fong noted.



Furthermore, he said if there were further US debt rating downgrade within the next two years as pointed out by S&P, then banks (depending on its portfolio weightings in US Treasuries) might slow down lending activities to meet international banking guidelines and this could slow domestic lending and cause consumption and investment to decline.

Fong said a larger-than-usual capital inflow would likely put upward pressure on the ringgit, causing Malaysia's exports to be more uncompetitive.

He said the rating agency maintained its economic growth forecast of 5.6% for Malaysia this year but acknowledged that the downside risk to growth had risen in the last few months.

This included a prolonged US slowdown coupled with a deteriorating external economic environment, he noted.

AmResearch Sdn Bhd director of economic research Manokaran Mottain reckons that the impact on Malaysia from the US credit rating downgrade will be minimal as the local economy is more domestic-oriented.

Countries more exposed to US Treasuries, including Japan and China, would face the brunt in the near term. China would be pressured to ease the grip on a weaker yuan policy, he added.

For Malaysia, the biggest impact will be in the currency market, with the ringgit rallying again towards RM2.93 per dollar again. The ringgit was traded at RM3.019 to a US$1 yesterday.

In the medium term, a possible quantitative easing (QE3) in the US would lead to the appreciation of the regional currencies, including the ringgit - which is expected to rally towards RM2.90 per dollar before settling between the RM2.80-RM2.90 range for this year.

Manokaran, who is maintaining the country's gross domestic product forecast at 5% this year, said the Government had trimmed its exposure to the G3 and plans to boost domestic demand. Apart from the US, the G3 also include Japan and the European Union.