China’s US$3.2 trillion headache

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ENTER THE DRAGON By YAO YANG

WHILE the downgrade of US government debt by Standard & Poor's shocked global financial markets, China has more reason to worry than most: the bulk of its US$3.2 trillion in official foreign reserves more than 60% is denominated in dollars, including US$1.1 trillion in US Treasury bonds.

So long as the US government does not default, whatever losses China may experience from the downgrade will be small. To be sure, the dollar's value will fall, imposing a balance sheet loss on the People's Bank of China (PBC, the central bank). But a falling dollar would make it cheaper for Chinese consumers and companies to buy American goods.

If prices are stable in the United States, as is the case now, the gains from buying American goods should exactly offset the PBC's balance sheet losses.

The downgrade could, moreover, force the US Treasury to raise the interest rate on new bonds, in which case China would stand to gain. But S&P's downgrade was a poor decision, taken at the wrong time. If America's debts had truly become less trustworthy, they would have been even more dubious before the agreement reached on Aug 2 by Congress and President Barack Obama to raise the government's debt ceiling.

That agreement allowed the world to hope that the US economy would embark on a more predictable path to recovery. The downgrade has undermined that hope. Some people even predict a double-dip recession. If that happens, the chance of an actual US default would be much higher than it is today.

Reason to worry: China’s US$3.2 trillion problem will become a 20-trillion-renminbi problem if China cannot reduce its current account surplus and fence off capital inflows. — AP

These new worries are raising alarm bells in China. Diversification away from dollar assets is the advice of the day. But this is no easy task, particularly in the short term. If the PBC started to buy non-dollar assets in large quantities, it would invariably need to convert some current dollar assets into another currency, which would inevitably drive up that currency's value, thus increasing the PBC's costs.

Another idea being discussed in Chinese policy circles is to allow the renminbi to appreciate against the dollar. Much of China's official foreign reserves have accumulated because the PBC seeks to control the renminbi's exchange rate, keeping its upward movement within a reasonable range and at a measured pace.

If it allowed the renminbi to appreciate faster, the PBC would not need to buy large quantities of foreign currencies.



International experience

But whether renminbi appreciation will work depends on reducing China's net capital inflows and current account surplus. International experience suggests that, in the short run, more capital flows into a country when its currency appreciates, and most empirical studies have shown that gradual appreciation has only a limited effect on countries' current account positions.

If appreciation does not reduce the current account surplus and capital inflows, then the renminbi's exchange rate is bound to face further upward pressure. That is why some people are advocating that China undertake a one-shot, big-bang appreciation large enough to defuse expectations of further strengthening and deter inflows of speculative “hot” money. Such a revaluation would also discourage exports and encourage imports, thereby reducing China's chronic trade surplus.

But such a move would be almost suicidal for China's economy. Between 2001 and 2008, export growth accounted for more than 40% of China's overall economic growth. That is, China's annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate would drop by four percentage points if its exports did not grow at all. In addition, a study by the China Centre for Economic Research has found that a 20% appreciation against the dollar would entail a 3% drop in employment more than 20 million jobs.

There is no short-term cure for China's US$3.2 trillion problem. The government must rely on longer-term measures to mitigate the problem, including internationalisation of the renminbi. Using the renminbi to settle China's international trade accounts would help China escape America's beggar-thy-neighbour policy of allowing the dollar's value to fall dramatically against trade rivals.

But China's US$3.2 trillion problem will become a 20-trillion-renminbi problem if China cannot reduce its current account surplus and fence off capital inflows. There is no escape from the need for domestic structural adjustment.

To achieve this, China must increase domestic consumption's share of GDP. This has already been written into the government's 12th Five-Year Plan. Unfortunately, given high inflation, structural adjustment has been postponed, with efforts to control credit expansion becoming the government's first priority. This enforced investment slowdown is itself increasing China's net savings, i.e., the current account surplus, while constraining the expansion of domestic consumption.

Real appreciation of the renminbi is inevitable so long as Chinese living standards are catching up with US levels. Indeed, the Chinese government cannot hold down inflation while maintaining a stable value for the renminbi. The PBC should target the renminbi's rate of real appreciation, rather than the inflation rate under a stable renminbi. And then the government needs to focus more attention on structural adjustment the only effective cure for China's US$3.2 trillion headache. - Project Syndicate

● Yao Yang is Director of the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University.

US Debt deal reached to avoid default, what others are saying?

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What China, Others, Are Saying About US Debt Deal?

Debt ceiling raised...again.

President Barack Obama said Sunday night that both houses of Congress finally reached an agreement to reduce the budget deficit and avert a debt default that would have likely sent the country into a recession.

“Leaders of both parties, in both chambers, have reached an agreement that will reduce the deficit and avoid default — a default that would have had a devastating effect on our economy,” Obama said in his remarks to the White House press Sunday shortly after the bill was signed. The first part of the debt deal cuts nearly $1 trillion from the federal budget over the next decade. Exact details were not immediately available.

“The result would be the lowest level of annual domestic spending since Dwight Eisenhower was President,” Obama said. The debt limit and cut spending between $2 trillion and $3 trillion.

The Economic Times of India polled readers who said overwhelmingly that the Indian market would be impacted on Monday as investors in the US digest this weekend’s news. A total of 85% of the paper’s readers polled on line said it would impact India’s market all week.

Russian newswire columnist Andrei Fedyashin said recently, before Sunday’s deal, that “cuts in social spending and higher taxes are still the only way of reducing budget expenditures and a country’s sovereign debt.”



Yao Yang, director of the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University, weighed in at China Daily. He said that the US deficit problem “is ultimately the result of the conundrum of a welfare state following the capitalist system. Both are uncompromising ideals cherished by a substantial percentage of the population. The fight will resurface in the future even if the present deadlock is broken. There is a lesson for other countries here. The best a country can do is to fence off the contagious effects of such fights and rely more on the domestic economy for further growth.”

Also reprinted in China Daily, Mohamed El Erian, CEO of PIMCO, says, the next few weeks will provide plenty of political drama. “The baseline expectation, albeit subject to risk, is that Democrats and Republicans will find a way to avoid disruptions that would damage the fragile US economy, but that the compromise will not meaningfully address the need for sensible medium-term fiscal reforms.”

In Brazil, an article in Folha de São Paulo, the country’s largest daily newspaper, said that Americans woke up too late to its serious spending problems. Not only government spending, but consumer spending as well. A foreign correspondent for the paper interviewed US think tanks and scholars who said that the average US citizen was “uninformed” about the country’s economy and pending debt crisis. Despite having nearly every country south of Texas run into similar debt dead ends, the US — printers of the world’s reserve currency and the largest economy — didn’t seem to flinch when society, and government, became overweight with debt. The US is in a unique world situation because of its status as world’s reserve and trade currency, and issuers of the most trustworthy debt in the market.

“Americans are not well informed about the economic crises that occurred in other countries to learn from them,” said Isabel Sawhill, an analyst from the Brookings Institute in Washington. “They don’t see any parallels with crises in other countries because they think the US has the capacity to resolve all problems.
The population knows there is a problem, they just don’t know to what extent or where it comes from.”

Linda Bilmes, a former government consultant turned Harvard lecturer in Cambridge, the main problem with the debt deal is taxes and political ignorance over tax laws. “The biggest reason our debt is so high is because George W. Bush cut taxes two times exactly when we were spending money on two wars,” Bilmes told Folha. “In the last two major US wars, taxes went up to support those expenditures.”

See: White House, Congress Reach Debt Deal

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