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Showing posts with label COP28. Show all posts
Showing posts with label COP28. Show all posts

Saturday 16 December 2023

Goodbye 2023; Hello 2024

 


2023 will be remembered as a tipping point year when almost all mega-trends of finance, technology, trade, geopolitics, war and climate heating showed signs of acceleration in speed, scale and scope.


You can call this a state of permacrises, a series of cascading shocks that seem to be building up to a bigger shock sometime in the future.

In finance, the year began with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on 10 March 2023, followed by Signature Bank. The Fed and FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) acted fast to guarantee all deposits to stop what is now called “Twitter Deposit Runs” against banks. In Switzerland, Credit Suisse was taken over by UBS on 19 March, after the bank lost nearly US$ 75 billion worth of deposits in three months. Swiss financial credibility was hurt when Credit Suisse AT1 (Tier One bonds) bond-holders became outraged that they should suffer write-downs ahead of equity holders.



Although prompt action by the Fed and Suisse financial authorities averted global contagion and restored calm to financial markets, the Fed hiked interest rates four times in 2023 to 5.25-5.5% to tackle inflation. This month, gold prices touched a record high of US$2,100 per ounce, signalling anticipated inflation abatement, but escalated geopolitical tensions.




In technology, 2023 marked the seismic arrival of generative artificial intelligence (AI), through the public launch of ChatGPT in November 2022. Commercialized AI is considered the next big thing after the internet, sparking off a US tech stock rally, led by the Magnificent Seven companies in AI-related software and hardware. The rally averted a year of portfolio losses in financial markets hurt by interest rate hikes.

In trade, the latest UNCTAD Global Trade Update found that global trade will shrink by 5% to US$ 30.7 trillion in 2023, with trade in goods declining by nearly US$2 trillion, whereas trade in services would expand by US$500 billion. The outlook for 2024 is pessimistic because trade issues are now geopolitical, rather than purely market-driven. Global supply chains are either decoupling or de-risking to avoid possible sanctions which have been imposed for geopolitical reasons.




Geopolitics dominated headlines in 2023, as diplomacy played second fiddle to the militarization or weaponization of everything.

The biggest risk faced by businesses today is national security risk, in case companies or financial institutions are caught in geopolitical tit-for-tat arising from binary differences in values. Where national security is concerned, the business must bear all the costs of supply chain restructuring with no questions asked, or face possible existential shutdowns.

War broke out in Gaza/Israel In October with a scale of civilian slaughter more horrific and intense than the Ukraine war, which began in February 2022. The latest war count to June 2023 by The Armed Conflict Survey 2023 (1 May 2022–30 June 2023), showed global fatalities and events increasing horrendously by 14% and 28% respectively.



The authoritative Stockholm International Peace and Research Institute (SIPRI) reported that 56 countries were involved in armed conflict in 2022, 5 more than in 2021. Three (Ukraine, Myanmar and Nigeria) involved 10,000 or more estimated deaths, with 16 cases involving 1000–9999 deaths. Expect more conflicts when natural disasters hurt food, water and energy supplies.




As 100,000 or so delegates leave the United Arab Emirates at the end of the COP28 this month, the UN painted an upbeat tone that the Conference marked the “beginning of the end” of the fossil-fuel era.  Scientists confirm that we have already passed the point of being able to limit carbon emissions for the average global temperature to remain below 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.   Most studies show that if most governments fail to meet their current commitments to NetZero, the planet will be struggling with temperatures above 2 degrees Celsius, meaning more natural disasters, rising seas and/or migration/conflicts.  Every three weeks, the US has experienced at least one natural disaster costing more than $1 billion in damages.  

As one cynic said, natural disasters are where the rich just pay in money, but the poor pay in their lives.

Putting all these mega-trend micro-disasters together suggests that a mega-system disaster may be on the cards. Historically, these seismic-scale disturbances are settled through a massive recession, like the 1930s Great Depression, or wars, which wipe out debt and make everyone poorer.

So far, the world has neglected to address these looming issues by either denying or postponement - printing more money and incurring more debt. Painkillers do not fix structural imbalances.

As my favourite poet TS Eliot said, the world ends not with a bang, but with a whimper. The world is in permacrises, with no one fully in charge. Democratic governance is in flux when no one can agree on the problems, let alone the solutions.

2024 will see some decisive but messy elections, especially in the US where both Presidential candidates may either be impeached or convicted by then. This cannot auger well for everyone, because 2023 marks the turning point when the US lost the respect of the Global South over its catastrophic handling of Ukraine and Gaza, both of which will be fought to the last Ukrainian or Palestinian. The morality of allowing other people to fight and die for one’s benefit shows not hypocrisy but hegemonic-scale cowardice.

The bottom line is that there is no shortage of technology or money to deal with the global existential threats of climate change and social imbalances. We cannot align policy intent (what politicians say they will do) with the reality that current policies are not delivering.

If man-made or natural calamities are looming, do we mitigate or adapt? On a single planet, we can run but not hide. So each of us must decide to do what we can, rather than relying on politicians to fix themselves, let alone our problems.

There is a wise saying about Christmas charity: give with warm hands. Do that now, or we will be giving with boiled hands or none at all.

Best wishes for 2024.

Andrew Sheng, Asia News Network



Sunday 3 December 2023

The US should feel ashamed of shocking scene at COP28, as COP28 anticipated to bring a deal that will make a real difference

 Looking ahead to COP 28

A view of the Expo City Dubai, the venue of COP28 Photo: Shan Jie/GT


The 28th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) gave the world a surprise on its first day, Thursday.

Delegates from more than 160 countries unanimously agreed to formally establish the Loss and Damage Fund, pledging more than $400 million to support the world's particularly vulnerable countries in their efforts to cope with the loss and damage caused by climate change. This groundbreaking progress has brought much-needed good news to the world, raising confidence and expectations for the outcomes of this conference.

The issue of funding has been a focal point in recent UN climate conferences, with prolonged and intense debates surrounding the amount of aid and compensation developed countries should offer for their historical emissions, as well as the ways of raising and distributing the funds. However, the urgency of the severe climate change situation has led to significant achievements. Developed countries have committed to mobilizing $100 billion a year to support climate finance. The establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund was a decision made at COP27 in Egypt in 2022, but its implementation has not been easy. Nonetheless, this time, several developed countries have made pledges toward the fund.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), host country of COP28, committed $100 million, Germany, $100 million, the UK, 40 million pounds (about $50.6 million) and 20 million pounds for other arrangements, Japan, $10 million, and the US, known for its grandstanding on climate issues, only $17.5 million.

When it comes to paying, some countries revealed their true face. The amount pledged by the US is meager in comparison with its status as the world's largest economy and the responsibility in addressing climate change it should bear given its highest historical cumulative carbon emissions, leading to criticism from attending delegates and experts who deemed it "disappointing," "shocking," and "embarrassing."

However, amid this disappointment, there were heartening developments. When the US once again let the world down at the critical moment, other countries stepped up.

On the second day of the climate conference, Friday, the UAE announced $30 billion for a new climate finance fund, aiming to mobilize $250 billion by the end of the decade. It also aims to improve the flow of money into projects to reduce emissions, especially in the Global South.

Washington should really feel ashamed of this scene. The New York Times bluntly questioned in a September article: How Long Can America's Climate Hypocrisy Last? "It's nothing new for climate ambition and climate hypocrisy to flicker back and forth like the two faces of a lenticular hologram," said the article. Even the American media itself says so, showing how bad the US' performance is on climate issues.

Another typical example is the deliberate effort by the US to woo Pacific island nations, establishing new embassies and claiming to help them maintain "maritime security." However, when it comes to the climate issues that these countries genuinely care about, Washington exhibits conspicuous stinginess and parsimony. The true focus of Washington in its diplomacy is becoming increasingly evident to people.

At any rate, the US cannot be absent when addressing the issue of climate. Even if other countries are proactive, they cannot fill the irresponsible void left by the US. Conversely, if the US fails to set an example on climate issues, it completely loses its qualification to pursue global leadership. In any case, the US must shoulder its due obligations and responsibilities. The Democratic Party shows a more positive attitude toward climate issues than the Republican Party. The Biden administration should take advantage of its time in office to push for substantive progress on climate issues with greater determination and force.

This current climate conference's crucial agenda is the "Global Stocktake," where each contracting party will review progress and gaps in implementing key provisions of the Paris Agreement. The focus will also be on "four paradigm shifts": fast-tracking energy transition and slashing emissions before 2030; transforming climate finance, by delivering on old promises and setting the framework for a new deal on finance; putting nature, people, lives and livelihoods at the heart of climate action; mobilizing for the most inclusive COP ever. These are ambitious goals indeed.

In the realm of climate, every step forward is incredibly challenging. It is precisely because of this difficulty that each achievement is so valuable. Regardless, we observe that human society is moving forward step by step, even though the pace is still too slow and lags behind the rate of environmental degradation.

How to ensure that this collective effort of all humanity involves less short-term selfish calculations and more long-term vision of shared future, and stronger climate actions, is crucial for the future and fate of humanity. No one can escape or evade this duty, especially for countries with significant responsibilities and obligations.

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COP28 anticipated to bring a deal that will make a real difference


International delegates are gathering in Dubai to find a deal that will make a real difference in tackling the planet's climate issues at the 28th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Anticipation is high for COP28, with over 70,000 delegates, including representatives from UNFCCC member states, participating in the pivotal event.

This gathering is expected to facilitate the forging of agreements to confront the climate crisis between global leaders and stakeholders, focusing on critical goals such as limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 C, aiding climate-vulnerable communities, and aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050.

The conference will not only see participation from leaders and delegates from different countries but also a diverse group of voices including business magnates, youth activists, climate experts, indigenous peoples, media representatives, and other influential figures.


A group meets near an art installation ahead of the COP28 summit, on November 28, 2023, in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates. Photo: VCG

"Over 160 world leaders are headed to Dubai, because only cooperation between nations can get humanity back in this race. But COP28 cannot be just a photo-op. Leaders must deliver - the message is clear," said UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell via a statement sent by the UNFCCC to the media. "And as leaders leave Dubai after the opening summit, their message to their negotiators must be equally clear: Don't come home without a deal that will make a real difference."

"We don't have any time to waste. We need to take urgent action now to reduce emissions. At COP28, every country and every company will be held to account, guided by the north star of keeping 1.5 C within reach," said COP28 President Dr. Sultan Al Jaber.

"All parties should be prepared to deliver a high ambition decision in response to the global stocktake that reduces emissions while protecting people, lives, and livelihoods," Al Jaber added.


Flags of nations participating in the UNFCCC COP28 Climate Conference, including China, are hoisted a day before its official opening in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, on November 29, 2023. Photo: VCG

China has always given top priority to addressing climate change, viewing proactive measures against it as an intrinsic requirement for its sustainable development and as its responsibility in building a global community of a shared future.

Graphic: GT

Notable progress has been made in both mitigation adaptation efforts, foundational capabilities have been continuously enhanced, and there has been a significant increase in green, low-carbon awareness across society, the Global Times learned from the China Pavilion at the COP28.

The country has also been actively and constructively participating in global climate governance, deepening our South-South cooperation on climate change, and has become a pivotal participant, contributor, and leader in global ecological civilization building.

Xie Zhenhua (left), China's special envoy for Climate Change Affairs, speaks with Zhang Yiming, Chinese Ambassador to the UAE, before the opening ceremony of the China Pavilion, on November 30, 2023.
Photo: Shan Jie/GT

Performers are seen in costume at Expo City Dubai, the venue of COP28, on November 29, 2023. Photo: VCG Performers are seen in costume at Expo City Dubai, the venue of COP28, on November 29, 2023. Photo: VCG

A view of the Dubai Exhibition Center in Expo City Dubai. Photo: VCG A view of the Dubai Exhibition Center in Expo City Dubai. Photo: VCG

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