The Peril Of Executive Optimism In 2010

The Peril Of Executive Optimism In 2010
Andrew Ward, 01.25.10, 04:41 PM EST

It is likely to cost some CEOs their jobs.

In the past year the markets and confidence gyrated. Twelve months ago we all believed we were staring into the financial abyss. Since then consumer sentiment has come a long way. Even housing looks to have hit bottom and started heading toward recovery. Are the good times here again, or at least around the corner?

There are indeed green shoots poking their heads above the dirt, but anyone occupying a corner office should be aware of the dangers that lie ahead for someone in their position. When green shoots appear, especially after a barren spell like the one we've been through, expectations for recovery grow much faster than the recovery itself.

The mismatch between racing expectations and slower recovery can sow greater discontent than during the depths of the recession. People expect things to get back to their best quickly. But especially in terms of job and wage growth, a recovery can take many months longer to be felt on Main Street than on an already improving Wall Street.

As a result people start to feel very frustrated with those who are supposed to be leading the recovery, from government figures to the corporate heads. We are already seeing the end of President Obama's honeymoon, with his approval rating dropping from around 70% on inauguration day to below 50% a year later, according to the Gallup daily poll. Moreover, Obama's disapproval rating has risen from just over 10% at the inauguration to 44% today. Don't expect employers to avoid their share of that kind of mismatch-induced discontent.

In my research on the largest U.S. companies during and after the last major recession, in 1990 and '91, I found that more chief executives were fired in the nine months following the recession than during the nine-month recession itself. Another study, by Sheila Puffer of Northeastern University and Joseph Weintrop of Baruch College, found that CEO dismissals then were driven less by absolute performance than by performance relative to board expectations. What does that suggest about the months ahead? When times are tough and the economy is a deep trough, expectations stay low. Workers accept furloughs, pay cuts and hiring freezes, taking them in stride. As a recession bottoms out expectations remain low, and so when many companies this quarter reported earnings way down from last year, they were still better than analyst expectations. However, that sent the message that maybe things aren't as bad as we fear, that maybe the worst is over. Expectations can now rise--and they're beginning to rise quickly.

As expectations rise boards will quickly begin to expect profits to rise, too, not just to decline less than feared. Employees will expect the tide to turn over the next few quarters from laying off to hiring, from pay cuts to raises. Yet companies are unlikely to rebound as quickly as their boards and employees anticipate. Those green shoots are still tender and yet to bloom. Boards and employees will begin to grow disappointed and will hold to account whoever they consider responsible for their organization's performance. They will ratchet up the pressure for faster recovery. This is likely to lead to the dismissal of CEOs who are unable to temper rising expectations and hammer home a message of more cautious optimism.

Good times will be here again, but leaders need to set expectations, both for the speed of the recovery and also for its tone. They need to draw appropriate lessons from the boom and bust, that to some degree euphoria was built on an unsustainable model of debt-fueled consumption and expectations of never-ending growth. If consumers learn to temper their own behavior as incomes start to rise again, the good times won't feel quite as good as they did before, but the recovery should be more sustainable. That's to be hoped for--but expectations have to be managed or heads at the top will roll, in both business and politics.

Andrew Ward is a member of the faculty of the Management Department at Lehigh University. His most recent book is Firing Back: How Great Leaders Rebound After Career Disasters, co-authored with Jeffrey Sonnenfeld of Yale University.

See also: "Expect Heavy CEO Turnover Very Soon," by Nat Stoddard.