The Cloudy IT Landscape

The Cloudy IT Landscape
Ed Sperling, 12.28.09, 06:00 AM EST
The shift to a utility-based computing model has massive implications for everything we've ever known about IT.
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Ed Sperling

Gartner's outlook for the next few years shows a steady migration toward cloud computing, driven at first by cost and then by quality of service. But the bigger issue that emerges from the research house's new report on the effects of cost-cutting and utility-based computing is who's going to be offering what to whom?

The immediate driver for cloud computing on the IT side comes from the economic downturn and the need to cut costs, says Frances Karamouzis, a Gartner research vice president. It's cheaper to outsource some operations to places like India, where labor costs are lower. But over the next couple years, those deals will be renegotiated or revisited as risk-management becomes the big issue.
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This shift is massive, both in physical scale and economic impact, and it's tough to make sweeping generalizations. Some CIOs already have a firm grip on risk-management. Others will never care because of their specific business models. But the push toward utility-based outsourcing, which allows companies to turn on and off servers, storage and software, has profound implications for the companies that have provided IT hardware, software and services for decades.

"The competition gets blurred about who buys what from whom," Karamouzis says. "Everyone's business model gets squeezed."

So where is this new competition coming from? First, it's open-source software. Gartner says about 15% to 25% of all software costs is for product support in the way of patches and updates. That has made open source particularly popular in some markets, and the appeal will only grow as IT departments get a firm grip on how they spend money and where those dollars actually go.

The second area of competition is caused by the convergence of software, hardware and services with the emergence of the cloud model and software-as-a-service. That helps explain why large systems vendors have been buying up service companies. IBM ( IBM - news - people ) bought PricewaterhouseCooper's consulting arm, Hewlett-Packard ( HPQ - news - people ) bought EDS and Dell ( DELL - news - people ) bought Perot Systems ( PER - news - people ). But it also shakes up the image of what each company really provides.

"The value is shifting to a relationship-based model that is inherent in the services world," Karamouzis says. "As a result, you could see a company like Accenture ( ACN - news - people ) competing head-to-head with a software company."

But if the real value comes from utility-like service, then how do these companies differentiate themselves from a software company like Oracle, which will also provide service and hardware, or a services company like Accenture, which can establish partnerships to provide everything it doesn't have? And what's to stop service giants from places like India--TaTa Group and WiPro, for example--from moving into the market where they barely had a toehold?

Big changes are coming and so far it's uncertain who will emerge stronger from these shifts. While CIOs enjoy the short-term benefits of pricing benefits and, in many cases, increased service for every dollar spent, the longer-term effects may not be quite so kind to the smaller utility-based service consumers.

Ed Sperling is the editor of several technology trade publications and has covered technology for more than 20 years. Contact him at esperlin@yahoo.com.