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Thursday 27 October 2011

Google's Business Experiment: Nothing but Web



In the cloud: A model uses a Chromebook on an airplane.Google

Google's Business Experiment: Nothing but Web


Computers that do everything in a Web browser are touted as an inexpensive alternative for companies.
  • Thursday, October 27, 2011 By Tom Simonite

Decades of Moore's Law have trained us to expect every new computer to do more than the one before. Google's most ambitious foray into cloud computing, however, has it wooing businesses with computers that do much less.

Those computers are known as Chromebooks. The laptops, officially launched in June, use an operating system called ChromeOS that is little more than a souped-up version of Google's Chrome Web browser. "Chromebooks came from this realization that cloud computing gives an opportunity to rethink what the desktop is," says Rajen Sheth, Google's program manager for Chromebooks. The pitch to businesses is slightly more prosaic: outfitting and supporting workers with Google's Chromebooks costs a lot less than giving them conventional PCs.

Google offers Chromebooks under a subscription model, where each machine costs between $20 and $33 per month. That price includes support and a promise that a replacement will be priority-shipped for any computer that breaks. Gartner research estimates that the total cost of ownership to a business is between $3,300 and $5,800 annually for a regular desktop computer, and more for laptops. The cost of owning a Chromebook, according to Google, is simply 12 times its monthly subscription cost—at most, $396 per year.

In typical Google fashion, Chromebooks were not released as a fully polished product. They first appeared in December 2010, when Google sent a prototype, the Cr-48, to thousands of volunteer testers and journalists (read Technology Review's review of the Cr-48). Feedback from that experiment was used in creating the first Chromebooks available for sale, which appeared this summer and are made by Samsung and Acer.



Despite the low cost, Chromebooks outperform conventional PCs in some respects. They take only eight seconds to boot up and can manage even a long workday on a single battery charge. Yet logging in to find nothing but a browser—no desktop with shortcuts, no conventional applications such as Microsoft Office—is unnerving. Whether you're composing e-mail, creating a presentation, or editing an image, you have to do it using the Web. Without an Internet connection, very few Chromebook apps will work at all.

Sheth says that poses no problem for many workers. "A significant proportion of people in business today just use a browser for everything they do," he says. Many call center workers and traveling sales reps already rely on software accessed through a browser. In fact, before leading Chromebook, Sheth was responsible for much of Google's success in convincing companies to adopt business versions of Web-based apps such as Gmail.

Sheth's most clearly detailed business case for Chromebooks revolves around what the laptops offer to IT staff. There's no need to install and configure security software, because the only software on the computer—the ChromeOS operating system—is updated automatically by Google and encrypts all saved data. What customization tasks remain can be handled using a slick Web-accessible dashboard.

"There's a huge pain point for IT managers around manageability, upgrades, and security," says Frank Gillett, who covers emerging technologies in IT for Forrester Research. "Google has built a back-end service for Chromebooks that takes care of all that very well."

Sheth declined to say how many Chromebooks have shipped, but there are some signs the market for Web-only computers may prove larger than many anticipated. Gillett recently surveyed IT buyers and found that around 16 percent of them said their users could survive with just a Web browser. "I expected to prove they're really skeptical, but they weren't," he says. Even so, Gillett still considers Chromebooks an "experiment" rather than a polished product line.

As Google upgrades the ChromeOS operating system, its stripped-down computers are likely to become more capable. Full support was recently added for the business package Citrix, which allows a Chromebook user to log in to a remote desktop and use Windows. Sheth says the important thing for Google is that the Chromebook gain a toehold in the market. "We're really aiming for the future vision of the enterprise. Today is the market entry strategy, not the end point," he says. He predicts that it will be another three to five years before most business tasks are done through a Web browser.

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Wednesday 26 October 2011

China's VanceInfo Technologies Tries To Outdo Indian Outsourcers




Ron Gluckman, 10.26.11, 06:00 PM EDT Forbes Asia Magazine dated November 07, 2011

Two tech guys named Chen are trying to answer the question: Can China do IT outsourcing like India?


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When David Chen met his future business partner, Chris Chen, in 1992, David was a Chinese student struggling to make ends meet in Southern California and Chris was working at a Great Wall computer store. Happy to find a fellow mainlander behind the counter, David put in an order for one of the cheap knockoffs the company sold. "It was all I could afford," he says.

Over the years, whether to fix a mafunctioning keyboard or brainstorm big ideas, they kept in touch. Today the pair, who aren't related, run one of China's fast-growing info-tech outsourcing businesses, VanceInfo Technologies. It's a long way from playing in the same league as the Indian giants--Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, Infosys and HCL Technologies--but it does list blue chips such as Microsoft, 3M, IBM, Citibank and AirAsia among its customers. VanceInfo collected $212 million in revenue last year and turned in a $30 million net profit. This year consensus estimates call for $276 million in revenue and a $40 million profit. Analysts say revenue could jump to $345 million next year.

Typically, big companies turn to outsourcers such as VanceInfo to handle some part of their operation. The outsourcer supplies the office space, employees and the ability to scale up quickly to fill a need. Last year Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways delegated some of its growing IT and software development workload to VanceInfo, which set up an office across the border in Shenzhen. Cathay's chief information officer, Tomasz Smaczny, says outsourcing an IT operation pays better dividends than buying individual IT services or hiring more staff: "We didn't do this so much for cost savings as for effectiveness and increasing our capabilities. Outsourcing allows us to dial up or dial down as needed."

VanceInfo runs such offices around the country and works with some 25 universities to provide and train staff. Many of the offices are scattered around a huge new computer park on the outskirts of Beijing, though there's no way to tell from the outside--they often sport only the customers' sign. There's a big office for Microsoft, a customer since 1997, where VanceInfo worked on Windows 7.

VanceInfo also keeps its headquarters here. Despite the marquee clients, and stakes that make them both well off--Chris' 8.6% stake is worth $37 million, David's 0.7% stake $3 million--each Chen drives his own car, unusual for Beijing executives, and works out of a nondescript office when he's not traveling. David, 43, the company vice chairman and president, has files piled to the rafters in his. Chris, 48, the chairman and chief executive, sits in the next one, which does boast a window but it looks out at the wall of another IT office. "It's our style to be frugal," he says. "We're in an industry where there aren't big margins. What impresses our customers is good service at good prices."

The austerity is certainly part of the company culture. One example cited by Alicia Yip, a former Citigroup analyst who followed VanceInfo, involves the chief financial officer, who found that his flight to the U.S. had been booked in business class. "He quickly went online and changed the ticket to economy," she says. Another time, at a conference, she remembers that VanceInfo executives checked out of the pricey conference hotel and moved to a nearby budget inn.

Chris Chen grew up in Wuning, a remote village in remote Jiangxi Province that had scant electricity. His mother is illiterate. "She cannot even write her name," he says. Nonetheless, he scored high on the national college test and won a place at Tsinghua University, considered the MIT of China, and graduated in 1986. He didn't know anything about information technology then, so when he started working for Great Wall, then China's biggest computer company, "Some people thought I was useless," he says. "My major was mechanical engineering."



Chris' skills were more suited to an entrepreneurial age that hadn't yet dawned in China. He spent six years with Great Wall and was posted to California, partly to scout new technology. In addition to selling computers to walk-in customers such as David, he was always on the alert for opportunities. One arose when IBM asked Great Wall to translate its operating system software into Chinese. The profit margin didn't interest Great Wall. Chris pounced.

Raising money from friends and relatives, Chris started a business. That morphed into a company called Worksoft, which later changed its name to VanceInfo (see box, p. 38). It quickly enjoyed success in localizing software for China and helping foreign IT firms operate there. "We had no concept of outsourcing," says Chris. "We just did projects, focusing on opportunities to make money. If I knew anything about outsourcing then, we'd be much, much bigger now."

David brings a dab more international expertise to VanceInfo. From Fujian Province, he went to the University of California, Irvine, earning a computer engineering master's in 1994. He moved to Silicon Valley, where he worked as a software engineer at Oracle and a consultant at KPMG. After a decade in the U.S. he returned to China in 2001 and joined Chris. With his Silicon Valley background, David comfortably courts new customers and oversees operations. Chris is more of the strategist, as well as the closer. "Chris has great people skills, and is a good storyteller," says David.

But can the Chens propel VanceInfo out of the crowded ranks of midsize Chinese outsourcers and into the global big leagues? It's probably one of the three or four biggest outsourcers now. (Comparisons are tricky--larger companies, such as Insigma, Neusoft and DHC, get some of their revenue from software and product sales and other sources.) Analysts also see VanceInfo as one of the two or three best run and most reputable. Frances Karamouzis, an analyst for Gartner and the coauthor of a report last year on the Chinese outsourcing sector, praises VanceInfo's adoption of Western-style accounting, which led to a New York Stock Exchange listing in 2007; most competitors opt to trade in China.

The comparisons with India are inevitable. Outsourcing has mushroomed into a $70-billion-a-year business in India, while some analysts value the Chinese sector at $20 billion; CLSA predicts that it will reach $30 billion in 2014. "China is almost exactly where India was a decade or so ago," says Pierre Samec, former chief technology officer of U.S. Internet travel company Expedia. "I think it will follow the same rapid growth curve." VanceInfo set up an outsourcing operation for Expedia in Shenzhen.

But times are different, and China is a different country--it may never produce another Infosys. Just as the Chinese industry is today, the Indian industry was once very fragmented, with dozens of small companies vying for business. The industry underwent a rapid consolidation, but in China, where analysts have been predicting the same trend for five years, it's been slow in coming. Karamouzis says that when it does arrive, the key for VanceInfo will be how well it handles the numerous deals and the integration of thousands of added employees. It's done four deals this year, spending almost $9 million to buy three Chinese outsourcers and one in Australia.

A hiccup for VanceInfo over the past six months was the drastic drop in its share price after an accounting scandal at rival Chinese outsourcer Longtop erupted in May (see box, p. 36). With consolidation a key to growth, the lower share price leaves VanceInfo with a weaker currency for buying other companies. Indeed, of its four deals this year, it did the two before May with cash and stock while the two since May were cash only. But David says: "We are actually in good shape. We have a lot of cash on hand ($130 million as of June 30), and are still looking at acquisitions." He added that a lower share price could be an advantage in buying companies, giving the sellers more potential upside.

Another difference from India is that most of the Chinese outsourcing business is in Greater China--with Chinese companies or multinationals operating in China. Indian companies exported most of their work to the West (and have never been able to make many in-roads in China). VanceInfo's headcount numbered 12,542 at the end of the second quarter--up by 25% from a year earlier--but only 200 of those were outside Greater China. The company does seek to grow in Europe and North America by moving into consulting and business solutions, allowing it to travel up the value chain by taking on more lucrative projects.

But despite VanceInfo's digital culture, change can be slow. In fact much of the industry looks inward, because business has been so abundant in China. "This is a very Chinese company," says Samec, noting that there has been much talk of adding foreign expertise to help the company grow and especially to expand overseas, but little action. Says David Chen: "This is something we have talked about and agreed upon, but we have been slow to implement. We really need to step up."

Punished for a Rival's Misdeeds
 
VanceInfo began the year tipped as one of the world's hottest stocks. Then in May a scandal erupted at rival Chinese outsourcer Longtop Financial Technologies, hitting the shares of the entire sector. From around $32 a share, VanceInfo's stock fell to almost $5 early last month before beginning to rebound to around $11. And it didn't help that VanceInfo Chief Financial Officer Sidney Huang served as CFO of Longtop in 2005–06; he has not been connected to the scandal.

Investors were giving the sector's wave of listings increased scrutiny, albeit a bit late. Both Longtop and VanceInfo went public on the New York Stock Exchange in 2007. Choosing the U.S. over markets in China opened the vaults to bigger investments, at the price of more regulation and paperwork. The scandal came to light when its auditor for several years, Deloitte Shanghai, resigned, alleging that financial information had been falsified.

By the time trading in Longtop was halted in August, over $1 billion in value had evaporated. Scores of lawsuits are pending and a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission investigation guarantees that the matter will remain in the news. "It will take some time to recover," says VanceInfo's David Chen. Yet he downplays any long-term impact. Rising costs and the yuan's continuing strength, he maintains, are bigger concerns that also contributed to the stock drop. Now, with a chance for the sector to feast on Longtop's clients, analysts see VanceInfo becoming a hot stock again, climbing to a $16 to $20 range. --R.G.


The Name Remains The Same
 
VanceInfo's first name was Worksoft, but the company later discovered a U.S. company called Worksoft. When it changed its English name to VanceInfo, it decided it didn't need to change the Chinese name. The first character denotes literature or culture, and the second, contemplation and thinking. In Chinese they sound similar to "vance," so the company chose VanceInfo for the English name. It's a play on "advancing information," says President David Chen. "It is really what we are about, to advance your potential." --R.G.

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Tuesday 25 October 2011

Investing during turbulent times

Coins and banknotes

Tips on how to invest during turbulent times


STOCK markets around the world lately gave investors that sinking feeling again, weighed down by deepening woes of Europe's sovereign debts, an anemic US economy and new fears of a sharp economic slowdown in China.

Many investors sold shares to hold more cash, despite cash earning very little interest. In Singapore for example, six months USD fixed deposits of less than US$1mil earns zero interest in some banks.

In the United States, 10-year Treasury bonds are yielding 2.1% per annum; despite misery returns, many investors prefer the safety of US Treasuries during crisis times, while waiting for policymakers to act boldly and markets to stabilise.

At the same time, we see many economists and other pundits offer a whole host of predictions about today's global financial predicaments. The many predictions range from the slightly hopeful to the pessimistic, right down to the disastrous and absurd.

Does it sound familiar? Did we not hear many such predictions during the 2008/2009 global financial crisis? Who should we listen to? What should one do?

No doubt in hindsight, a few forecasts will be correct; and as the dust settles, many extreme predictions will also likely be forgotten. Yet for investors today, separating much of the “noise” from facts is one of the more tricky parts of steering through these very challenging times.



Fundamentals and valuation takes a back seat during a crisis

Volatile stock markets today are driven by latest positive or negative news flow affecting sentiment. Uncertainties during a crisis causes investment risks to spike, stock investors tend to sell first and ask questions later; fundamentals and stock valuation typically takes a back seat in the short term.

No doubt many investors worry about negative impact to a company's fundamentals in difficult times. For example, a manufacturing company's stock with a present price earning (PE) multiple of six times can change drastically to 60 times PE if earnings were to collapse 90% because of a global financial crisis.

Similarly, a property company's price to book value discount of 60% can easily drop to 30% if asset value is marked down by half in troubled times. Monitoring, reassessments and analysis of a company's financial progress is obviously important during tumultuous times.

Share prices of companies (even those with good fundamentals) may continue to fall indiscriminately, due to many reasons such as panic selling, fund redemption and repatriation. Investors should tread cautiously, even if stock prices may appear to be at very attractive levels.

I relate a challenging experience from the last global stock market plunge. In 2008, I invested in the largest luxury watch distributor and retailer in China (at that time 210 stores and sales amounting to 5.5 billion yuan a year or about 30% market share).

This Hong Kong listed Chinese company sells luxury watches (such as Omega, Longines, Bvlgari) from global brand owners Swatch group of Switzerland and LVMH of France (both by the way are also 9.1% and 6.3% shareholders of this Chinese company respectively).

As the US sub-prime mortgage crisis deepens by end-July 2008, many stocks around the world plunged. This company's shares similarly dropped from HK$2 to HK$1.50 in a matter of weeks.

We vigorously reassessed the company's fundamentals, including visits to retail outlets in China and Hong Kong. The result was an affirmation of our conviction to invest in the company for the long-term, despite short-term price weakness.

By late September 2008, we decided to purchase more shares when valuation proved so attractive at HK$1.15 per share (at a PE multiple of eight times).

Unfortunately, as the global financial crisis worsened, the company's shares continued to plunge and bottomed to a low of HK$0.51 by Nov 26, 2008.

This stock eventually recovered back to HK$2 per share (by June 1, 2009) and went on to exceed HK$5 per share by late 2010. The company's share prices recovered partly because Asian equities rebounded quickly in 2009, but also reached new highs because the company's fundamentals continue to improve with strong sales (+49%), profitability (+26%) and expansions (+140 stores to 350 stores) from 2008 to 2010.

A lesson if you will that during a crisis, one should be prepared for short-term (weeks and months) stock market volatility.

It is essential for bargain hunters to have long-term holding power, good understanding of company fundamentals and strong conviction on a company's prospect. In the long-term, we know fundamentals and valuation does matter.

How does one invest during a time of crisis?

My approaches to investing in turbulent times are:
  • Search for and invest (when valuations are attractive) in well managed companies that will not only survive but emerge stronger from crisis times;
  • Be prepared to stomach stock market volatility in the months ahead;
  • Have a longer term investment horizon (perhaps two to three years); once this crisis dissipates, reap the rewards as stock markets recover.
In Asia, macroeconomic fundamentals likely will remain resilient as many Asian economies have strong foreign currency reserves, coupled with more fiscal and monetary policy options to support growth.

China is also likely to withstand any fallout from Europe better than most would think. China's economy is still growing at a strong 9.1% gross domestic product growth for the third quarter of 2011; speculations about China's economy crashing may be somewhat premature at this stage.

Similarly, I think many established Asian companies have sufficient resources be it cash, borrowing powers or human capital, to emerge out of these turbulent times faster and stronger than before.

I believe with increasingly attractive valuation, the investing risk-reward equation (potential downside risk versus long term return prospects) favors Asian equities in the long run. I have confidence investing in Asia's fundamentals and Asian companies for many more years ahead.

Teoh Kok Lin is the founder and chief investment officer of Singular Asset Management Sdn Bhd