The new year 2013 will continue with the trends of of the passing year

The new year will start with two economic crisis events in the United States but otherwise, we can expect 2013 to continue with the trends of the passing year. 

IF 2012 is the year that did not bring about the end of the world, then 2013 should be the beginning of a new era, according to the Mayan prophecy.

But it is unlikely the new year will herald a brand new age for the world as a whole.

More probably, it will continue the trends in the old year but in more pronounced and deeply felt ways.

The year 2013 starts with the United States falling off the “fiscal cliff” or else escaping from that at the last moment.

If the fiscal cliff takes effect fully, up to four percentage points of GNP are expected to be sucked out of the US economy due to tax increases and government spending cuts combined, thus resulting in a new recession.

Another problem will soon reach crisis point.

The US government debt will reach its mandated limit around now, and President Barack Obama and Congress will have one to two months to negotiate an increase in that limit before the administration runs out of money to pay for its operations or service its debts.

Thus, we can expect the first two months of 2013 to be preoccupied with the drama of the US politics on debt, taxes and government spending.

It seems that the President-Congress and Democrat-Repub­li­can bitter battles of the last few years will return at the start of Obama’s second term.

If so, the United States’ political paralysis will be reflected in economic policy deadlocks.

The economic crises in the United States, and how they play out, will have a big impact on 2013 worldwide, especially since Europe is already in the midst of a recession.

With the uncertainties in the major developed economies, and the softening of the economies of China, India, Brazil, most developing countries will face economic difficulties this year but the extent of this is to be seen.

On the political front, the ongoing economic turmoil will lead to political changes in many European countries, and the future of the European Union and the Eurozone will themselves come under significant strains.

The next chapter of the Middle East drama is quite unpredictable. Israel, with its right-ward tilt, is expected to become even more aggressive, as its recent plan for more settlements in Jerusalem shows, and this may increase its isolation further.

But whether the Palestinian parties can unite and take advantage of its strong resistance in Gaza, its new UN-adopted status as a state, and the decline in Israel’s international support, is to be seen.

The Iran nuclear issue will continue to occupy news attention, with the Western countries having to decide whether to negotiate with Iran or intensify the sanctions (or both) or prepare for a military attack (thankfully, this does not seem likely).

The Syrian civil war will still dominate the TV channels as it enters another phase and perhaps an end-game, while the continued struggle for Egypt’s future political and social system will also have major effects on the region and the world.

In Asia, the world will watch closely whether the final stage of China’s leadership change-over to the new President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Keqiang in March will begin a new era or continue the policies of the past decade.

Malaysia will have its place in the global spotlight with the general election, which will most likely take place in March.

Whatever the results, this closely contested election will be a watershed in the political life of the nation.

India, too, is in a state of significant political and economic flux, and 2013 will be used by the political parties and forces to prepare for the climax of the general election in 2014 and it is anybody’s guess who will come up on top.

Even as politics and economics continue to occupy the most attention, 2013 will remind us with greater force that Nature forms the bedrock of our societies and our civilisation.

The passing year brought its share of natural disasters to rival those of the previous recent years, and 2013 could even see worse extreme weather events around the world.

Global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase despite greater awareness about the dangers of climate change.

Last week’s big floods in Malaysia’s east coast states could be a harbringer of worse to come in the country and the region.

The Philippines, having suffered a typhoon in its southern region in early December, had to cope with another big storm in its central region last week.

These are reminders that each country should improve its natural disaster preparedness as well as finalise its national strategy to address climate change.

And there are many other environmental issues to give high priority to, including water scarcity and quality, deforestation, biodiversity conservation, toxic chemicals and wastes and pollution of all types.

It will be an interesting year ahead.

Happy New Year to all readers of Global Trends!

Global Trends By MARTIN KHOR

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Protecting your data

I REFER to the report “Personal Data Protection Act to come into force Jan 1” (The Star Dec 12 - reproduced below).

Symantec Corporation welcomes the enforcement of Malaysia’s Personal Data Protection Act.

In today’s digital economy, personal data of consumers has become a rich source of information and data for businesses seeking to address the needs of their customers better, whether this is in the form of better targeted advertising, or services tailored to the needs of particular customers.

With the introduction of the Act, Malaysia recognises that as the custodian of so much customer data, companies and organisations also have a responsibility to their customers to ensure that the information they hold is accurate, and adequately protected.

While global multinationals have had a lot of experience in this area, due to similar legislations in the United States and Europe, for many of the local smaller enterprises in Malaysia, this is a new frontier.

With the rapid adoption of IT technology to improve the customer experience, through web portals or affinity and membership programmes, these enterprises have also collected a lot of personal data of their customers, and today share similar responsibilities under the Act.

Small and Medium Businesses (SMBs) are an important part of Malaysia’s economy as they constitute 99.2% of the total business establishments, contribute about 32% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 59% of total employment.

SMBs are also a crucial part of the ecosystems as partners of multi-national corporations (MNCs) as they do business in Malaysia.

However, it is also increasingly apparent that MNCs see a risk in doing business with partners who are not able to protect the sensitive data being shared with them.

In 2011, 18% of all targeted cyber attacks globally were on enterprises with 250 employees or less. In the first half of this year, Symantec saw this percentage double to 36%.

Cybercriminals recognise that because of the lower security posture of SMBs, they are much easier targets, who would also have information (their own or partners’ customer data, or Intellectual Property) which can be stolen and monetised.

In addition, compromised systems of SMBs are also used as stepping stones into the systems of their business partners.

It is thus important that SMBs recognise the exposure they have to cyber attacks, and the possible damage to their companies, through loss of reputation, business, and even legal censure, in the case where cybercriminals are able to steal data from inadequately protected systems.

In the more than two years since the enactment of the Act in Malaysia, the cybersecurity threat landscape has increased in complexity and scale. News of large scale breaches of companies database have been a constant and even the largest and best protected systems have not been spared.

It is thus timely for the Government to also consider the introduction of mandatory breach notification within the Act.

This would be in line with many other jurisdictions which have either implemented such legislations or are in the process of doing so.

Mandatory breach notification is an important part of any data protection legislation as it gives a definitive course of action to companies of what must be done in the case of a data breach.

By informing affected stakeholders, this also gives them the opportunity to take the required remedial actions (such as changing passwords, or having their financial institutions change their credit card numbers) to mitigate the consequences of the breach.

While it is recognised that this may increase the regulatory overheads of the Act, and represent an increased burden on companies, but the resulting improved consumer confidence in the data protection regime as well as e-commerce can only be helpful to Malaysia, as it moves towards developing its own digital economy.

NG KAI KOON Symantec Corporation Kuala Lumpur

Personal Data Protection Act to come into force Jan 12013

KUALA LUMPUR: The Personal Data Protection Act, aimed at preventing the abuse of citizens' personal data for commercial purposes, will come into force on Jan 1, said Deputy Information, Communications and Culture Minister Datuk Joseph Salang.

He said the Act, which was passed by Parliament in 2010, plays a crucial role in safeguarding the interest of individuals and makes it illegal for corporate entities or individuals to sell personal information or allow the use of data by third parties.

Many quarters, he said, felt that the enactment of the Act was timely as it would facilitate the transfer and transmitting of personal and often very important information seamlessly.

"It gives the public more control over their personal data. Whenever consent is required for data processing, it'll have to be given expressly rather than impliedly or be assumed," he said in his keynote address at the Second Annual Personal Data Protection Summit, here on Wednesday.

He said organisations would need to embark on continuous data privacy audit exercises to ensure compliance with the law as they now faced increased responsibility and accountability in processing personal data disclosed to them.

Salang said that to administer this piece of legislation, the Personal Data Protection Department was established on May 16, 2011.

Under the Act, offenderscan be jailed for up to two years or fined RM300,000, or both, if convicted.
Salang urged the public to be careful about information they shared online, especially in social media applications.

"Unfortunately, this is an 'open window' to our lives which makes it easier for those with nefarious intent to obtain information and use it for their own ends," he cautioned. - Bernama
 

FBM KLCI hits all-time high; Bulls set to explore uncharted territory

Global inflows into Asia, Window-dressing help push up Malaysian stock market

above: FBM KLCi Weekly chart (click to enlarge)  

PETALING JAYA: The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (FBM KLCI) closed at an all-time high of 1,681.33 points yesterday, courtesy of global inflows into Asia and window dressing activities in local funds.

The local benchmark index also recorded an intra-day high of 1,686.70 points. It closed 7.17 points, or 0.25%, higher to 1,681.33.

Total turnover was 858.83 million shares valued at RM1.27bil. Gainers outpaced losers 436 to 255 while 345 counters remained unchanged.

“The market is behaving in a fairly predictable manner. According to past patterns, the market should be sustainable until as late as the second week of January,” said Interpacific Research head Pong Teng Siew.

He added that the market would most probably see a slight dip before it started rising again on a Chinese New Year rally.

“This is a two-tiered market, with many of the biggest blue chips doing well. However, it does not necessarily reflect a true representation of the entire market,” Pong said.

Alliance Research analyst Teoh Chang Yeow said although the FBM KLCI created a new record high of 1,686.70 points yesterday, the lack of follow-through buying interest saw it easing slightly.

“This pushed the benchmark index down below the 1,680-point level to a day's low of 1,678.58 points before settling at 1,681.33 points,” he said in a report.

He expects FBM KLCI to trade below 1,678.58 points on Dec 31, 2012, as analysis of the overall daily market action on Friday suggested that buying power was weaker than selling pressure.

On Friday, Asian markets were largely unaffected by the looming fiscal cliff woes of the United States. Instead, they paid more attention to the depreciating Japanese yen, which is a result of possible further monetary easing. The Nikkei 225 Index gained 0.70% to 10,395.18 points on news of a huge injection stimulus by the Bank of Japan.

In key regional markets, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.21% to 22,666.59 points; Shanghai's Composite Index gained 1.24% to 2,233.25 points; Taiwan's Taiex was 0.67% higher at 7,699.50 points; South Korea's Kospi gained 0.49% to 1,997.05 points, while Singapore's Straits Times Index moved 0.25% up to 3,191.80 points.

“While we are quite encouraged by the development here, it is still a fairly buoyant time for Asia,” Pong said.

At Bursa Malaysia, plantation stocks were among the top performers on firmer crude palm oil (CPO) prices brought on by the removal of export duty on palm oil effective Jan 1, 2013.

Plantation stock Batu Kawan Bhd rose the most, gaining 30 sen to RM18.30, while Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd moved 19 sen up to RM5.85. PPB Group Bhd gained 14 sen to RM11.36 while Sime Darby Bhd was up 10 sen to RM9.49. However, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd fell 16 sen to RM21.94.

Among the top gainers were British American Tobacco (M) Bhd which rose 84 sen to RM61, Petronas Dagangan Bhd up 24 sen to RM23.60, and Allianz Malaysia Bhd gaining 24 sen to RM7.08.

Top losers include Guinness Anchor Bhd, which was down 16 sen to RM16.48, JT International Bhd falling 12 sen to RM6.55 and IQ Group Holdings Bhd losing 12 sen to close at 38 sen.

US light crude oil was 11 cents higher at US$90.98 while spot gold fell US$3.18 to US$1,660.93.
The ringgit weakened against the US dollar at 3.0612.

By WONG WEI-SHEN
weishen.wong@thestar.com.my

Bulls set to explore uncharted territory

TREND ANALYSIS BY K.M. LEE

REVIEW: Growing worries that a budget deal could not be reached and a downbeat data on consumer morale in the United States and Germany prompted investors to liquidate risky assets.

In nervous trading, Wall Street's leading index, the Dow skidded 120.88 points to 13,190.84 and crude oil prices dived US$1.47 to US$88.66 a barrel the previous Friday.

Many people had expected the domestic front to kick off the final week of 2012 on a soft platform, but surprisingly, Bursa Malaysia was pretty upbeat, with the benchmark FBM Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) opening up 3.97 points to 1,662.82.

Asian equities steadied in quiet pre-Christmas trade, rebounding from huge losses previously on optimism the fiscal cliff problem in the United States would be resolved eventually. Taking the cue from a firmer regional trend, some institutional funds continued to indulge in year-end “window dressing” activity but interest was concentrated on certain quality issues.

Elsewhere, second and lower liners were mostly flat to lower on lack of retail participation. The apparent mixed landscape and dull volumes were clearly displayed on the scoreboard. Though the key index advanced a significant 10.55 points to 1,669.40 at the settlement, losers outnumbered winners by 324 to 279, with only 620 million shares done on Monday.

Most bourses worldwide were closed for Christmas. Major markets like Japan and China, which stayed open, sustained the uptrend lifted by exporters' counters due to weaker yen.

In spite of the bullish ambiance, the local bourse opened little changed, up 0.1 point to 1,669.50 in an initial deals, pending a clearer picture to emerge on Wednesday. The overall market sentiment was cautious, but “window-dressing” activities were very much alive, although no evidence of broad-based buying was sighted. But, as the key index crawled nearer to the historical peak, some players opted to book profit and their action somewhat capped the upside.

In range-bound session, the FBM KLCI fluctuated between an intra-day high and low of 1,673.19 and 1,665.83 before finishing at 1,671.58, up 2.18 points in thin turnover. Bargain hunters continued to dominate and rises in the blue chips lifted the key index 2.58 points higher to 1,674.16 on Thursday and an extra 7.17 points to 1,681.33, off an early new all-time high of 1,686.70, boosted by regional gains yesterday.

Statistics: For the week, the principal index climbed 22.48 points, or 1.4% to 1,681.33 yesterday, compared with 1,658.85 at the close on Dec 21. Total turnover for the four-day holiday week amounted to 2.920 billion shares worth RM3.941bil, versus 3.875 billion units valued at RM6.57bil traded during the regular previous week.

Technical indicators: Soon after slipping below the 80% bullish line, the oscillator per cent K reversed up quickly and climbed above the oscillator per cent D of the daily slow-stochastic momentum index to trigger a short-term buy on Thursday. Similarly, the 14-day relative strength index returned to the bullish territory, ending at 78 points level yesterday.

Meanwhile, the daily moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) histogram sustained the upward thrust, in tandem with the daily trigger line to retain the bullish note. Weekly indicators improved further, with the weekly slow-stochastic momentum index strengthening and the weekly MACD on the verge of calling a buy.

Outlook: The bulls bounced back from the danger zone with a vengeance late last month to give Bursa the fourth consecutive weekly gains. Based on the daily chart, the FBM KLCI had penetrated the previous record of 1,679.37 to establish a new all-time of 1,686.70 in early deals yesterday.

Apparently, the major breakthrough was not accompanied by great volumes, but we were not so concerned, as many big players were still on extended holidays. Hence, no matter how you look, it is a bullish breakout and the most important point is the bulls had somewhat removed the threat of a “double-top” reversal.

With more investors returning to the marketplace after the vacations and taking up fresh positions for the new year ahead, they can expect the market to firm deeper into the uncharted territory going forward.

Technically, indicators are painting a promising pictogram, suggesting a steadier trend this week. If there is an absolute change in the sentiment, the culprit would be a breakdown in the budget talks, coming from the United States.

The immediate upside is to challenge the 1,700 points psychological level. Thereafter, resistance is expected at every 20 points or 30 points intervals. Current support is pegged at the ascending 14-day and 21-day simple moving averages, resting at the 1,659 points and 1,643 points respectively.
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Test of 1,597.08 or a window-dressing decline?   FBM KLCI – May reverse near the key 1,597.08 all-time high.

Support: 1,562 to 1,581 Resistance: 1,596 to 1,597
Strategy: The FBM KLCI gained 10.50 points to close at 1,596.33 last Friday. The local market moved  uneventfully  until  last  Friday,  when  very  obvious  low-volume  1Q  window-dressing activities emerged. Volume shrank from 1.94b to 1.25b shares last Friday.

above: FBM KLCi Weekly chart (click to enlarge)  

The obvious areas for the FBM KLCI are in the 1,562 to 1,581 zone. The next resistance levels of 1,596 and 1,597 may see heavy liquidation activities. The FBM KLCI consolidated in a tight range of  801  to  936 from October  2008  to  April  2009,  but  broke  above  its  resistance  level  of  936.63 (Wave  a/B)  in  April  2009  and  surged  to  an  all-time  high  of  1,597.08  on  11  July  2011.  Its intermediate  Wave  b/B  low  was  836.51. We  traced  out  a  Wave  c/B  (of  the  Flat  3-3-5  variety) rebound phase to its all-time high of 1,597.08 (c/B). A downward “killer” large-scale “Wave C” is now in place and has only just begun, with a temporary low formed at 1,310.53 (Wave a/C). A temporary rebound wave (Wave b/C) is underway and may take the shape of yet another Rising Wedge pattern (as shown on the chart above).

If the index breaks the second upper Rising Wedge trend line, we would revise our Wave Count of an extended A-B-C correction to 1,310.53, and the current wave would be an extended Fifth Wave  of  the major  Flat  correction from the  801.27 low.  Trade  cautiously,  as the  index  may  be peaking soon with bearish divergent signals.  We favour this second “overbought scenario” for the index. A test of the 1,597.08-resistance (and all-time high) could be met with heavy selling.

 

Some  stocks  we  like  are:  AMMB,  ARMADA,  BAT,  CRESNDO,  CYPARK,  DIGI,  HLBANK, JTIASA, KLK, KMLOONG, LBS, MHC, SOP, TAANN, TAKAFUL, TM and YTL.

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