What are the US demands for Chinese government to accomplish in order for the US to list China as a friendly nation?

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Vladimir Prostran

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has MA degree in Chinese studies Updated 2y

What are the US demands for Chinese government to accomplish in order for the US to list China as a friendly nation?

There are things American politicians will say and wrap them as highly noble, but are actually destructive and dangerous. Here are some examples you can hear from any “well intentioned” American politician.

Statement no.1: “We want China to become a fully democratic society with a vibrant political life.”

Reality: “We want China to become a toxic, polarized and unstable society where even simple state decisions will be next to impossible to make because of corrupted political parties representing only their own interests, not the national ones. We’ll also be able to influence those parties through our “democracy development funds” and ensure that there’s always enough polarization to prevent any serious economic and infrastructure development.”

Statement no.2: “We want China to give Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet, Inner Mongolia and all provinces freedom of self determination and let them grow civil rights organizations and political parties that will promote new, democratic values.”

Reality: “We want China to fall apart to many smaller regions and provinces that will be easy for us to control through advocating and financing organizations that promote separatism and anti-China policies - look, some people in HK and Taiwan already claim they’re not Chinese! If Islamic terrorism starts happening again in Xinjiang, we’ll call those terrorists fighters for freedom. If some rioters in Hong Kong burn cars, loot shops and attack anyone who speaks Mandarin, we’ll call them young fighters for democracy.”

Statement no.3: “We want China to allow full media freedom”

Reality: “We want China to allow our media companies to enter the market and promote destructive values through publishing lies or skewed facts that show that the government is the enemy of the people. We will promote the destruction of the current political and social system and then claim that we’re fighting for freedom and democracy. We will accuse everyone saying anything good about the current government even when it’s true to be an anti-democratic piece of scum. If the society in China implodes as a result this anti-national propaganda - pity, you cannot have democracy and freedom without victims”

Statement no.4: “We want China to open its economy to equal treatment of American businesses and investments”

Reality: “We want China to sell all their valuable companies to us and let us enter the strategic national industries we would never allow Chinese companies enter in the US. The fact that many American companies do business in and with China is not good enough for us - we want to be able to own the strategic industries in China. At the same time, we’ll ensure that no Chinese companies buy anything truly valuable in the US under the guise of protecting the American national interests, which is a great trump (!) card no one will ever dispute.”

Statement no.5: “We want China to stop government subsidies and allow a fair market competition.” 

Reality: “We want China to stop investing in development of industries that can compete with ours and just buy our products. Even then, if a Chinese company has any potential to succeed in the US, we will make sure that through corporate lobbying and merciless anti-China campaigns any chance of success is nipped at the bud. We’re all for free markets, but only when it works for our companies.”

Answer: Nothing can be done. The US at this moment wants to see China weak, poor and destroyed. A strong, developed China with a competitive economy and global Chinese brands is something the US will never accept. 

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Malaysian Chip industry outlook remains bright, says expert

 

Attendees of the talk and networking session for semiconductor industry players in Penang.

MALAYSIA’S role in the global semiconductor supply chain is invaluable as the country is one of the United States’ largest semiconductor trading partners.

Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) president and chief executive officer John Neuffer said Malaysia was also a leader in semiconductor assembly, test, and packaging.

“The Semiconductor Industry Association looks forward to continuing our work with our counterparts in Malaysia to ensure Malaysia and our industry can thrive, innovate, and realise an even brighter future built on semiconductors,” he said.

Speaking after the Malaysia Semiconductor Industry Association (MSIA) and SIA talk and networking session with MSIA members in George Town, Neuffer said in the 1990s, “the US produced 37% of the world’s chips but today, it only generates 10%.”

“The US has not kept pace with the rest of the world and it has seen chip manufacturing growth everywhere in the world except in the US.

“Chips are designed to make the US competitive and not to replace any country, not to decouple from the world but to be a competitive destination for investment along with countries like Malaysia and many others,” he said.

Neuffer noted that the long-term outlook for the semiconductor industry was still bright with the digital transformation of every industry with technologies such as the internet of things (IoT), artificial intelligence and 5G.

“Everyone needs more and more chips with the advanced growth and development of technologies worldwide.

“The good news here is that the pie will be getting bigger and the pieces of the pie will also get bigger.

“The future of the industry is bright and the CHIPS Act 2022 is not expected to badly affect the industry’s growth especially in countries like Malaysia,” he said, although the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) forecast a decline of 4.1% in the industry this year due to inflation pressures and weaker demand.

The CHIPS Act prohibits funding recipients from expanding semiconductor manufacturing in China and countries defined by US law as posing a national security threat to the US.

MSIA president Datuk Seri Wong Siew Hai, when asked about the recent US semiconductor policy, said, “Although the situation will add another layer of uncertainty to the outlook for the semiconductor industry, there is a window of opportunity for South-East Asian countries especially Malaysia.

“There will be opportunities to capture investments, business opportunities and sales orders as Malaysia is quite broad based.

“In cases where US factories in China have to move, we hope the volume will eventually move out to Malaysia,” he said.

Wong added that all E&E (Electrical and Electronics) companies, US companies, Chinese companies including Malaysian companies would be assessing the potential impact of the CHIPS Act and US exports control restrictions and how they could mitigate the impact.

Wong also urged the E&E industry and the Malaysian government to move quickly to seize these opportunities.

Despite Malaysia’s Electrical and Electronics (E&E) sector’s slower global growth, exports for 2022 was RM593bil, 30% higher than in 2021.

Malaysia continues to be an attractive location for E&E companies with 7% of the global market share and 13% global market share for semiconductor assembly, test and packing.

Malaysia has attracted E&E investments of RM186.2bil since January 2020 and some of the investments have started operations with more being operational this year and in 2024.

Neuffer and his team from SIA, which is the voice of the US Semiconductor Industry, were in Malaysia to meet with key relevant stakeholders including SIA member companies and those in the E&E community.

MSIA is an industry association which covers individuals and companies incorporated in Malaysia who are involved directly or related to semiconductor industry (electronics and systems), semiconductor industry supply chain, institutions providing significant related services to semiconductor industry such as engineering, finance, legal and those societies, associations, chambers and government-linked agencies. Subscribe now to our Premium Plan for an ad-free and unlimited reading experience! 

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What are the US demands for Chinese government to accomplish in order for the US to list China as a friendly nation?

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Tight job market? AI meets worker shortage

FILE PHOTO-OpenAI and ChatGPT logos are seen in this illustration taken, February 3, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

THE two investment obsessions of the year so far – artificial intelligence (AI) and super-tight labour markets – meet head on.

If the hype about the former is to be believed, concern about the inflationary impact of the latter should be well wide of the mark. If only they were so perfectly aligned.

Timing is everything of course. The speed with which ChatGPT-style AI tools zap swathes of white-collar desk jobs could be more glacial than any Big Tech rah-rah suggests – and at least slower than the 12-18 months of the Federal Reserve’s current policy horizon.

But two reasonable questions are being asked around investment houses.

Does the wave of layoffs in the digital and banking worlds this year relate directly to the presumed quantum leap in so-called generative AI – just as pandemic-related overstaffing and more recent job hoarding is being pared back?

And if it does, should policymakers relax more about what could be temporary worker shortages in the service sector, where most of the wage and inflation concerns seem to centre?

Far from relaxing, should office or home-based workers now fret that we’re in for anything but a tight jobs market over the coming years?

More questions than answers perhaps – but enough to have investment strategists thinking laterally and joining dots.

Morgan Stanley’s thematic research team said last week it was inundated with enquiries about generative AI during its recent client visits.

And while investment fads come and go, they said, this one is “worth considering seriously” given the speed of take-up and its diffusion across many industries.

Aside from stock price and valuation frenzies, the team said a new wave of AI fed the debate about white-collar industry disruption in a “creative destruction moment” – with possible side benefits from reskilling workers to better wage diffusion.

Citing numbers indicating employment in business, knowledge, customer and developer outsourcing in excess of 100 million across Asia alone, Morgan Stanley said the impact was already being felt even if the jury was still out on “the degree to which it is deflationary or productivity enhancing.”

If this generative AI takes the tech transformation to non-routine office work that it largely skirted over the last decade, it will affect tens of millions more jobs than currently assumed.

The two sides of the theoretical debate at least are whether that then leads to mass unemployment and demand problems – requiring a reconsideration of things like universal basic income to support economies – or whether productivity gains lift wages and see workers simply choosing to work ever fewer hours over time as bots take their place.

London-based Fathom Consulting last Thursday concluded that a “fourth industrial revolution powered by AI could greatly affect the demand for and supply of labour” and the United States and China were bound to vie for leadership.

“The speed and impact of this change will be profoundly disruptive for global politics and for the structure of the labour market,” economists Erik Britton and Andrew Harris wrote, adding that the United States needed to keep investing in tech that both supports and replaces labour in order to retain its edge.

But just what is the scale of the likely disruption?

A frequently cited study by business consultant McKinsey from 2017 showed 60% of occupations worldwide have at least 30% of work activities that could be automated – even though automation may well create more jobs in tandem.

That tallies with numbers from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, which reckoned 10% to 15% of jobs will be lost due to tech changes over the next 20 years – but about as many may be created in other industries.

While varying hugely among the 46 countries it examined, the McKinsey study said up to 30% of activities could be displaced by 2030 – with advanced and ageing economies more likely to move faster given higher wages and incentives.

More recent polling from McKinsey last year showed companies saying at least a quarter of their tasks could be automated over the next five years but less than a fifth of respondents reckoned their firms were yet in a position to do that.

And that observation underlines the timing of all this in terms of years. How soon do tech revolutions change the world – and at least aggregate demand or supply for workers?

As the flub by Alphabet’s chatbot Bard illustrated in spectacular fashion this week, the big problem for the latest wave of emerging AI is still one of accuracy.

“While ChatGPT’s output is credible, accuracy is its Achilles’ Heel,” Morgan Stanley’s team wrote. “Manual validation should act as a breakwater to this employment threat for now.”

If creases take years to iron out, perhaps it’s not so useful to see the craze providing a timely offset to tight labour markets and wage inflation.

There’s even a chance the trepidation may exaggerate the prevailing conundrum and cause as many problems as the reality.

In a discussion paper published by the Centre for Economic Policy Research last month, economists Marta Golin and Christopher Rauh said their work found a “strong relationship” between worry about automation and intentions to join a union, retrain or switch occupations, preference for taxation and government handouts, populist attitudes and voting intentions.

Much like the pandemic, fear of automation could have as big an economic impact as its actual spread. — Reuters

Mike Dolan is a columnist for Reuters. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. 

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To assist companies in charting effective talent management strategies, LinkedIn, Shahul, Yee and edotco Group chief people officer Ramon Chelva will share insights in a panel on Feb 21, 2023.

Information and registration here: https://events.thestar.com.my/event/the-talent-magnet-how-to-build-a-thriving-workforce/

 

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