Share This

Saturday, 17 September 2011

Up Close and Personal with Steve Forbes





By TEE LIN SAY and JOHN LOH starbiz@thestar.com.my

America’s Vanishing Middle Class

E.D. Kain, Contributor


GD*6909039

Any analysis of wages earned in prior decades and wages earned today needs to take into account the fact that a lot of non-white-males have entered the workforce. Still, these are troubling numbers from John Cassidy of The New Yorker:

Median earnings for full-time, year-round male workers: 2010—$47,715; 1972—$47,550. That not a typo. In thirty-eight years, the annual earnings of the typical male worker, adjusted to 2010 dollars, have risen by $165, or $3.17 a week.
If you do the comparison with 1973 it is even worse. The figure for median earnings of full-time male workers in that year (when O. J. rushed two thousand yards and Tony Orlando had a chart-topper with “Tie a Yellow Ribbon Round the Old Oak Tree”) was $49,065. Between now and then, Archie Bunker and Willie Loman have suffered a pay cut of more than twenty-five dollars a week.
Now check out this chart from Mother Jones:
inequality-p25_averagehouseholdincom

The gap is only growing wider, and the structural issues at the heart of the gap are becoming more entrenched in this current recession. The problem isn’t with income inequality per se. There will always be income inequality, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing so long as the people at the bottom aren’t living in poverty. The problem is that you reach a certain point where income inequality becomes a destabilizing force both economically and politically.




And while a number of consumer goods have gotten cheaper over the years – like personal computers and all the stuff you can waste time with online – important and essential items like healthcare have gotten much, much more expensive:

OECDChart3_1

Now we can quibble about why costs have risen so much, and really there’s a number of reasons. If you want an in-depth look at those reasons, you should read Aaron Carroll’s series on health costs. One way or another we’re talking about a major expense for middle and working class people, and that’s on top of growing education and housing costs. The big essentials are breaking the bank for many Americans, even if we can afford refrigerators and flat screen televisions.

Does this mean we need more regulation or less? Does it mean we need higher taxes and more redistribution? I would propose a grand bargain along these lines:
  • Let’s deregulate the economy as much as possible, eliminating barriers to entry from as many fields as possible, and allowing the DIY economy to flourish. This includes a bunch of supply side stuff in the health sector.
  • Let’s do away with the corporate income tax altogether to encourage domestic investment, especially since this tax is just passed along to consumers.
  • Let’s reform the progressive tax code to be way more progressive – especially on the top tiers. The top earners in this country can afford to spread the wealth around.
  • Let’s get rid of Medicare, Medicaid, and the ACA and replace them with straight-up single payer health insurance for everyone. Simplify and save money in the process. Take the burden off of employers.
  • Let’s let markets do their thing and public options do theirs. We don’t need Romney’s “unemployment accounts” – unemployment insurance works just fine. I’d be more sanguine about private savings accounts if markets weren’t so prone to crashing, but as it stands Social Security just needs some tinkering to be perfectly sustainable.
  • We should invest more in our public institutions, from schools to universities to public libraries. We should also invest a lot in our public infrastructure, and we should use higher fossil fuel taxes to make those investments.
That’s a broad sketch – and I do mean sketch – of my basic blueprint for market-social-democracy (or something like it). Less government in how we actually interact with people, whether that’s running a business out of our home or smoking marijuana, coupled with a more focused public sector geared toward providing basic services (transit, healthcare, education, etc.).

Oh, and quit spending nearly a trillion dollars a year on war. Keep those dollars here in America and put them to better use. We can defend our country just fine without getting our nose in everybody else’s business.

Newscribe : get free news in real time 

Friday, 16 September 2011

Asian wealth to triple by 2015

World map showing GDP real growth rates for 20...Image via Wikipedia



By JOHN LOH  johnloh@thestar.com.my

Boom seen coming from property, manufacturing, commodity sectors

KUALA LUMPUR: The wealth in Asia will triple by 2015 to US$15.8 trillion, according to the findings of the recently-published Asia Wealth Report by private Swiss bank Julius Baer.

The report, done in collaboration with brokerage and investment group CLSA, also estimates that the current 1.15 million high net worth individuals (HNWI) across Asia will double to 2.82 million by 2015.

China alone is estimated to hold 55.4% of this wealth in 2015 and will have 49.6% of the total HNWI.
In 2011 and 2012, China and India are forecast to contribute to over 40% of global gross domestic product (GDP).

The report was commissioned with the aim of investigating the key drivers of wealth creation in the Asia Pacific region and the future size of the HNWI market by country.

Speaking to StarBizWeek at the sidelines of the Forbes Global CEO Conference, Julius Baer Asia CEO Dr Thomas Meier said the wealth would come from a diverse spectrum of industries, primarily property, manufacturing (for fast-moving consumer goods and information technology) and commodities (palm oil and coal).



In terms of the investment portfolios of the HNWI in the study, Meier said they noticed a trend of high allocation of equity holdings, which would appear to run counter to the current pessimism in global stock markets.

He said equity investments were recommended, adding that the bank's optionality products capitalised on the volatility of the stock market and allowed investors to enter at attractive prices.

On whether Asia's growth was sustainable, Meier said: “We believe the economic fundamentals of Asia are strong and robust, and this will eventually translate to wealth creation. We are not in a bubble the growth of Asia was a normal evolution process.”

When asked if Asia's boom would eventually sputter out, Meier said the economy was indeed cyclical, but noted that “this is the decade for Asia, and in this current global scenario, we believe Asia has the potential to absorb any shocks to the world economy.”

Julius Baer Singapore CEO David Lim, who was present at the interview, added: “Asia's fundamentals were not developed overnight, and it will not change overnight. It has been an accretive process over the years, and that is why we claim it to be sustainable.”

Malaysia was part of the study as well, and the report found that by 2015, the country's HNWI should increase to 68,000 from 32,000 currently, while the stock of wealth would grow to US$330bil from US$142bil.

Lim said Malaysia could maintain positive GDP growth through to 2015, external factors notwithstanding.
Key for Malaysia's continued growth, he said, was to ensure sustainable GDP growth, keep its focus on the new economic areas set by the Government, and maintain a stable currency.

Competitiveness should be increased by improving productivity, and not by devaluing the currency, he added.

Of note also is the forecast that Indonesia will have the highest growth rate, vis-a-vis its Asian neighbours, in terms of the number of HNWI over the five-year period with 25%, rising to 99,000 with a total wealth of US$487mil.

Switzerland-listed Julius Baer, whose origins dating back to 1890, is a private banking group which focuses on servicing and advising private clients.