Bank Negara raises key interest rate

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By FINTAN NG  fintan@thestar.com.my




PETALING JAYA: Bank Negara raised the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to 3% and increased the statutory reserve requirement (SRR) by 1 percentage point to 3%, a move that took most by surprise.

The OPR, the benchmark interest rate commercial banks use to calculate their base lending rates for loans, was last raised in July last year.

The central bank hiked the SRR by 100 basis points to 3% effective May 16 as a pre-emptive measure following the build-up of liquidity in the financial system.

“With the economy firmly on a steady growth path, the monetary policy committee decided to adjust the degree of monetary accommodation,” said the central bank in a statement yesterday.

“At the current OPR level, the stance of monetary policy remains supportive of growth. The future stance of monetary policy will depend on the assessment of the risk to growth and inflation prospects.”

Bank Negara acknowledged inflation, which has increased globally on account of higher energy and food prices, has inched up too in Malaysia and has now hit 3% in March to average 2.8% for the first quarter of 2011.

“Global commodity and energy prices are projected to remain elevated during the year, with inflation in major trading partners also expected to rise further. There are also some signs that domestic demand factors could exert upward pressure on prices in the second half of the year,” the central bank said.

However, it noted that despite higher inflationary pressure, latest indicators pointed towards continued strengthening of private investment and sustained private consumption expenditure in the first quarter.

“Growth will be underpinned by the firm expansion of domestic demand. Sustained employment conditions and income growth is expected to provide support to private consumption, while private investment is projected to strengthen amid the improved investment environment,” it added.

In a separate statement, the central bank said the decision to raise the SRR was undertaken as a pre-emptive measure to manage the significant build-up of liquidity, which could result in financial imbalances and create risks to financial stability.


Economists, who were divided over whether the OPR would be raised, told StarBiz that the central bank was sending out a message that inflation was now the concern instead of growth.

AmResearch Sdn Bhd senior economist Manokaran Mottain said policymakers were sending out the message that they were vigilant.

“They're acknowledging that inflation is putting pressure on the economy,” he said, adding that market consensus was for the OPR to remain unchanged with a Bloomberg survey showing that seven out of 16 economists expected the hike, with the rest expecting the OPR to remain the same.

Nevertheless, economists agreed with the central bank that the rate hikes were still supportive of growth with domestic demand now the focus.

CIMB Investment Bank Bhd head of economics Lee Heng Guie said there was likely to be another 25-basis point hike in the OPR in July but this, judging from the language of the Monetary Policy Committee statement, “will depend on risks to growth and inflationary prospects”.

Meanwhile Affin Investment Bank Bhd economist Alan Tan said the decision to raise the OPR was “a close call” as a lot of brokers expected interest rates to remain unchanged due to the strengthening ringgit.

“Going forward, the central bank is signalling that rising inflation will be of concern and that growth will come from domestic demand as external demand weakens,” he said.

Tan expects another 25-basis point hike before year-end as the central bank moved in tandem with regional peers in normalising interest rates and managing capital flows.

“The normalisation of the rates is important because the US Federal Reserve has indicated that there may be a hike in rates next year and if policymakers here keep rates low for a prolonged period, there's a risk of a capital outflow,” he said.

For Bank Negara statements click here

The Quantum Physics Behind The Death Of Osama Bin Laden

 
Steve Kleinman

Is information technology outpacing the brain's ability to process it?

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The death of Osama bin Laden, while a geostrategic event of real importance, is also a prime example of how three principles from quantum physics might explain the reality and the potential of such occurrences in the context of international affairs.

The first principle would suggest this incident--or, more precisely, the news of this incident--is comprised of little more than energy and information, the same two fundamental building blocks that form the universe. The second principle describes how mere observation of an event will influence how it ultimately manifests. The third principle introduces nonlocality, how an event occurring in one physical space has the potential to profoundly alter events unfolding elsewhere. The combination of these principles offers a framework for eliciting more meaningful insights into the event's real import.

As to the first principle, information includes the surface level details: bin Laden was killed during a unilateral raid by U.S. Special Forces at a residence located within Pakistan. Of greater importance are the deeper details: bin Laden was the leader of al Qaeda, the perpetrator of the Sept. 11 attacks, and the figurehead for a movement to restore the Caliphate in the Middle East. It is the emotional energy attached to this that animates it--from the euphoric celebrations in front of the White House to the angry reactions within Pakistan. This combination of energy and information proved sufficient to temporarily move the major stock exchanges, spur anti-terrorist programs into high gear and cue debate within American political circles as to who should rightfully take credit for the killing.


The second principle reminds us that human observation changes the nature of the event. In most of the Western world bin Laden's death was heralded as a major success in the war on terror and evidence to support the intelligence-drives-kinetic-energy approach to counterterrorism. This perspective may also reframe the event as a culminating point of victory in the battle against Islamic extremism (the "cut off the head of the snake" philosophy).

In the Middle East, Horn of Africa and parts of Southeast Asia, human observation characterized it in a far different light. The killing of bin Laden, this perspective argued, provides additional evidence of America's systematic disregard for the sovereign rights of nations with Muslim majorities and his death--at the hands of the crusaders--has turned a man surrounded by myth into a truly mythical icon for the ages.

Finally, there is the nonlocal element. A century ago the death of bin Laden would have been, at best, a regional story; with modern technology, a Jakarta housewife has access to--and is affected by--information rivaling that available to analysts at the National Counterterrorism Center. The rate and volume of information flow surrounding an event of this nature has the potential to inform national policy and alter vacation plans in equal measure. The concern here is that technology continues to evolve far more quickly than the brain's ability to make sense of the flood of data. Hence, an Indonesian housewife's rationale for changing her family's plans for a holiday is as valid as that used to alter a nation's approach to counterterrorism.

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In search of a better quality of life

DIPLOMATICALLY SPEAKING By DENNIS IGNATIUS
duta.thestar@gmail.com

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Most people in the developing world are generally unhappy with their lives. Some 79% of Malaysians considered themselves to be struggling!



The Gallup survey of 124 countries sought to categorise people into three groups — those who were thriving, struggling or suffering.

The survey found that majorities in only 19 out of 124 countries considered themselves thriving. Unsurprisingly, more people in the developed world felt that they were doing well compared to those from the developing world.

Income levels are, of course, a key determinant of wellness. Countries with higher per capita incomes invariably tend to have better healthcare, social safety nets and opportunities for advancement.

As well, developed countries tend to have a better overall environment for the pursuit of wellness. An independent judiciary, a responsible police force, less corruption, and equitable laws that level the playing field for all citizens facilitate wellness.

In short, political systems that are accountable to their citizenry and responsive to their needs generally provide for a better quality of life, and that is the key.

Denmark, Sweden, Canada, Australia and Finland were among the top five countries in the world where the majority of people felt good about their lives. In Denmark, 72% considered themselves as thriving.

And what of Malaysia? The survey revealed that Malaysians are an unhappy lot. Seventy-nine per cent of the population considered themselves to be struggling.

To put this in a wider context, Malay­sia fared worse than Lebanon or Russia but did better than Mon­golia, Uganda and Mali, if that is any con­solation.

In high-income Sin­ga­pore, 61% considered themselves as struggling, suggesting that the quality of life there is not as great as its leaders think it is. Perhaps the restrictive political environment in the island republic might have something to do with it.

The world wellness survey tends to correspond with the data contained in the World Bank’s Migration and Remittances Factbook 2011 (MRF2011) which came out in February. It must come as no surprise that people who are struggling or suffering usually vote with their feet and flee for greener pastures.



Torrents of people from Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America are moving, legally or illegally, to the developed world. Third World nationalists, dictators and mullahs might inveigh against the West but many of their own people are risking life and limb to head West. Those that can’t make it to their preferred Western destinations end up in the relatively more prosperous developing countries like Malaysia.

Thousands of people from all over Asia and Africa now live in Malaysia, legally or otherwise. In fact, according to the MRF2011, Malaysia has become one of the top destinations for Asian migrants who already account for 8.4% of our population. The remittances from these migrants amounted to more than US$ 6.8bil (RM 20.3bil) in 2009.

And while poor unskilled migrants flood into Malaysia, skilled Malaysians are leaving in greater and greater numbers.

The MRF2011 data indicates that more than 1.4 million Malaysians, or 5.3% of our population, have already left. Included in this figure are 1,727 locally trained physicians.

The US, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Singapore were the main destinations.

The continuing outflow of skilled Malaysians, coupled with the rising inflow of unskilled migrants, cannot be good news for the long-term future of our nation.

Cheap labour might boost our industries in the short-term but will do nothing to help us in the critical areas of innovation, research and entrepreneurship that is vital for our future prosperity.

The other thing about unhappy people is that they tend to send their money abroad because they lack confidence in the future of their own countries.

Here again, Malaysia is one of the chart toppers with more than US$ 8bil (RM 23.8bil) going abroad last year. How long can we continue to bleed this way?

What all these say is that Malaysians are not happy with the way things are going and with the overall quality of life they now experience. It suggests, as well, that they have no confidence that things are going to improve anytime soon. It also means that our present efforts to persuade talented and skilled Malaysians to return home are unlikely to be successful.

Offering tax incentives and better remuneration alone are not going to cut it with people whose priority is a better quality of life for themselves and their families.

The message that the Gallup Wellness Survey sends to many Third World governments, including our own, is that they need to do a better job in improving the quality of life of their citizens.

For us, that means seriously tackling the growing racial and religious divide, significantly improving our education system, providing equal opportunities for all Malaysians to prosper, and being attentive to the plea for better governance.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak appears to be acutely aware of the challenges that Malaysia faces. Let us hope that the government’s plans to improve the wellness of all Malaysians bear fruit.

In the meantime, we will continue to hear that sucking sound of men and money moving abroad much to our detriment.

● Datuk Dennis Ignatius is a 36-year veteran of the Malaysian foreign service. He has served in London, Beijing and Washington and was ambassador to Chile and Argentina. He was twice Undersecretary for American Affairs. He retired as High Commissioner to Canada in July 2008.