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Thursday, 16 September 2010

Comparing Chinese And U.S. Capitalism

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Official presidential portrait of Barack Obama...

At the dawn of the new century, a new technology promised to fundamentally change global economics. Government leaders in the United States and China, the two largest economies in the world, believed that companies from their respective countries should lead in the development of this new technology. By 2010, two national champions, one from each country, had emerged.

Founded by a young entrepreneur in the mid-1990s with approximately $300,000 of capital, Company A had become a global leader over a 10-year period in a related field. In 2002, Company A went public, gaining additional capital by listing its shares on one of the world’s major stock exchanges. Then, in 2003, Company A decided to diversify beyond its original business and develop new products using the new, game changing technology.

By late 2008, Company A had attracted the interest of a prominent global investor, a cold-nosed, savvy industrialist who regularly saw the most promising investment opportunities from all over the world. Proclaiming Company A’s technology to be the best that he had seen, his company invested over $200 million in Company A. With a long history of commercial success and profitability, Company A achieved revenues of nearly $4.0 billion, and earnings of $150 million, in 2008.

On the other side of the world, Company B came into being just after the turn of the century. Convinced by the vast potential of the new technology, the founders were a group of individuals who based Company B’s products on research done by one of the country’s leading universities. By 2006, Company B had attracted the attention of the country’s government and business leaders, and began receiving development grants from an industry consortium that was working in collaboration with a large government agency. Incremental investments from several of the country’s largest companies followed.

Company B’s breakthrough came at the beginning of 2009 when it won a $250 million grant from a government agency to build a new production facility in an economically depressed part of the country. In addition to wanting its country to lead the world in this new technology, the government was motivated by its desire to create jobs for its citizens.

With strong government support, Company B went public in late 2009 and raised an additional $400 million of capital. In 2009, Company B had revenues of $91 million, and a net loss of $87 million. By the end of 2009, it had accumulated losses of $239 million and had never earned a profit.

If you are a United States politician or business leader, or just a plain ordinary American citizen who is alarmed by this story and concerned with the way in which “China, Inc.” is competing unfairly in the global economy, well, guess again.

As improbable as it may seem, Company A is none other than… BYD, the Chinese private company that quickly became the world’s largest rechargeable battery maker that decided to enter the market for passenger cars and electric vehicles several years ago. On the other hand, Company B, the recipient of the government largesse, is Massachusetts- based A123 Systems. Ironically, both companies received approximately the same amount of investment– at about the same time. BYD received a $230 equity investment from Warren Buffet’s Mid America Corporation in late 2008, while A123 received a $250 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy in January 2009.

On Monday, September 13, 2010, A123 announced the opening of a large lithium-ion battery factory in Livonia, Michigan. The plant employs 300 workers, and is expected to employ up to 3,000 in several years.
President Barack Obama placed a congratulatory call to A123 executives and Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm. “Thanks to the Recovery Act, you guys are the first American factory to start high-volume production of advanced vehicle batteries,” the President said. “This is about the birth of an entire new industry in America — an industry that’s going to be central to the next generation of cars. And it’s going to allow us to start exporting those cars, making them comfortable, convenient and affordable.”

The central planners in Washington must be feeling pretty good about themselves these days and the way in which they are single-handedly re-shaping the U.S. auto industry. The grant to A123 is part of a total of $1.4 billion of funding that the U.S. government is providing to nine Michigan companies to support advanced battery manufacturing and job training. This comes on top of the Department of Energy’s $465 million loan to Tesla, a maker of high priced electric vehicles, and the $50 billion bailout of General Motors. Now all the planners have to do is hope that these companies can produce products that customers want, and can afford.

Undoubtedly, the thinking on the part of the Obama Administration is that: “If China can use government funds to create national champions, so can we.” What they don’t understand is that this is not the way it works. Admittedly, state-owned banks still make loans to state-owned companies, but these behemoths are not the innovators in China 2010. Instead, hundreds of thousands of entrepreneurial Chinese companies, just like BYD, are driving innovation in the country in industry after industry.

China has obviously studied American economic history. Washington should do the same.

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Banks take over record number of homes in August

NEW YORK | Thu Sep 16, 2010 
 
(Reuters) - A record number of U.S. homeowners lost houses to their banks in August as lenders worked through the backlog of distressed mortgages, real estate data company RealtyTrac said on Thursday.

New default notices decreased at the same time, suggesting that lenders managed the flow of troubled loans and foreclosed properties hitting the market to limit price declines, the company said.

Root problems of high unemployment, wage cuts, negative home equity and restrictive lending practices persist, however, pointing to lingering housing market pain.

RealtyTrac sees a record 1.2 million repossessions this year, up from just under 1 million last year, with more than 3.2 million homes in some stage of foreclosure.

In 2005, before the housing bust, banks took over just about 100,000 houses, according to the Irvine, California-based company.

"It really does look like we're seeing a slowdown of new foreclosures being initiated as part of a means to manage inventory levels on the market," RealtyTrac senior vice president Rick Sharga said in an interview.

Banks foreclosed on 95,364 properties in August, topping the May 2010 record by 2 percent. These repossessions, or real estate owned (REO) homes, jumped 3 percent in the month and 25 percent in the year.

At the same time, a similar amount -- 96,469 homes -- got a default notice. Defaults declined 1 percent from July and 30 percent from August 2009 after peaking at 142,064 properties in April 2009.

It will take about three years to work through the stockpile of distressed housing, Sharga said, resulting in a market that moves sideways.

"I don't think it gets any better really until the end of 2013," he said.
Total foreclosure actions last month, including notice of default, scheduled auction and repossession, were made on a total of 338,836 properties in August, up 4 percent from July and down 5 percent from August 2009.

The number of homes getting at least one notice topped 300,000 for the 18th month in a row.
One in every 381 housing units got a foreclosure filing last month.

Slowing home sales, after buyer tax credits of up to $8,000 ended in April, could tilt more owners toward foreclosure.

"Fewer buyers means it's going to take longer to clear out the distressed inventory, the longer you have that inventory the more price pressure there is on the overall housing market," said Sharga. "The more price pressure, the more homes are in danger of going into foreclosure because they're going to be upside down."

Homeowners that are upside down, or have a mortgage bigger than the home's value, often cannot sell or refinance.

Foreclosure auctions were scheduled for the first time on about 147,000 properties last month, up 9 percent from July and the second highest total in records dating back to April 2005.

Nevada, Florida, Arizona and California had the highest state foreclosure rates in August, with Nevada topping the list for the 44th straight month despite a 24 percent drop in foreclosure actions from a year earlier.

Idaho, Utah, Georgia, Michigan, Illinois and Hawaii were the other states with the highest rates of foreclosure.

The 10 metro areas with the nation's highest foreclosure rates had fewer actions for a second straight month.

"Some markets may have already peaked, but even with the decreased levels of activity they're still running at multiples of national averages," Sharga said. "In some cases it really is a matter of trying to keep inventory levels from overwhelming the local markets."

(Reporting by Lynn Adler, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Wednesday, 15 September 2010

US economists oppose imposing punitive measures against China

Nobel Laureate economists on Wednesday urged American politicians to restrain from imposing punitive measures against imports of Chinese goods, calling it both unwise and useless.

"This is crude populism and represents the attempt of the two parties to win voters," said James Heckman, professor of economics at the University of Chicago, in an exclusive interview with Xinhua.

"What I do worry about is that there has been a lot of talking about taxing the Chinese and punishing them," said Heckman on the sidelines of a forum celebrating the opening of University of Chicago Center in Beijing.

The statement comes two days after 93 U.S. lawmakers signed a letter urging Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives to schedule a vote on a bill to get tougher with China.

The bill would allow the U.S. Commerce Department to slap countervailing and anti-dumping duties on "injurious imports from any country that persistently undervalues its currency."

The Chinese currency has seen increased volatility in the trading days since the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, announced on June 19 that it would increase the currency's exchange rate flexibility.

The yuan's central parity against the U.S. dollar has risen by 1.5 percent from the rate of 6.8275 per U.S. dollar, set a day before the PBOC's pledge to increase flexibility.

A more expensive Chinese currency would help, in some sense, but the key problem was in the U.S. economic policies which had proven to be ineffective, said Heckman, who won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2000.

He said the current difficulties facing the U.S. economy in the form of high unemployment and a staggering deficit mainly stemmed from its own "unwise policies" that finance consumption and practice large tax cuts.

"There is an issue that China and the rest of the world has to be worried about -- How much will America continue to live beyond its means and whether America has the political will to solve the problem?"

He called upon the U.S. leadership to wake up to a deeper understanding of the nature of the deficit problem and look to a much longer-term solution, and deemed the proposed action as pure politics.

"Every serious person in economics said we have to deal with the deficit, but the government has not listened to it," Heckman said.

He said America's soft money policy and its consumption patterns were not sustainable and had to be adjusted, but "We don't even have a serious discussion about the nature of the deficit problem in America."

"It is easy to attack China, and so many people in the US will say it is the Chinese who are responsible for the lack of jobs, but they don't look at the deep structural questions," Heckman said.

"I don't believe that any American with any integrity would advocate this kind of punitive policy toward China, which is pure politics."

Echoing Heckman's words, another Nobel Laureate economist present at the opening ceremony, Gary Becker, said it was the U.S. who should take significant responsibility for its problems.

"The U.S. has a very low savings rate which has contributed in a very important manner to its current difficult situations and the global financial crisis, as well," said Becker, a professor of economics and sociology at the University of Chicago.

Heckman and Becker called for caution, as some economists suggest China sell down its vast holdings of U.S. Treasuries, which makes up some two-thirds of its 2.45 trillion U.S. dollars in international reserves.

"If China dumps a lot of U.S. dollars, that would be unwise, because that would create a currency crisis in the currency market," he said.

Source: Xinhua

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