Toyota Recall Is Moment to Counter China’s Rise
Commentary by William Pesek Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Naoto Kan isn’t alone in his “sense of sadness.” He shares it with 126 million Japanese.
Japan’s finance minister is blue over how quickly China is gaining on Asia’s biggest economy. Two years ago, anyone who said China would overtake Japan in 2010 was laughed into submission. Fantasy may soon become reality and the Japanese media can’t churn out enough dire stories about it.
“Generally speaking, it’s a good thing that China and Asia are growing and Japan needs to make efforts to ensure it can benefit from that,” Kan, 63, told reporters in Tokyo last month. “Coming from a generation that experienced high growth, my honest feeling is a sense of sadness.”
Far from being sad, Kan should see this moment for what it really is: one that shakes Japan out of its 20-year slumber.
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP’s recent prediction that China will overtake the U.S. as the largest economy by 2020 is the talk of Tokyo. It’s shock enough for Japan to fathom playing second fiddle in Asia, never mind China being the globally dominant power 10 years from now. Expect a corresponding surge in sake and whiskey sales around Japan.
Adding insult to injury, the great Toyota Motor Corp. is recalling cars in China, and Japan Airlines Corp. is bankrupt. Add in deflation and the threat of a Standard & Poor’s downgrade and it’s hard not to conclude 2010 is getting off to a dreadful start for Japan.
Silver Lining
The silver lining is the China effect. On the face of it, China’s economy should be larger than Japan’s -- its population is almost 11 times bigger. If China’s currency weren’t 40 percent or so undervalued, it would already be No. 2. As many in Japan say, though, size will matter more when China matches Japan on a per-capita income basis. Japan’s is 13 times China’s.
That’s many a year off, of course. As the process unfolds, Japan could be well-positioned to benefit. What’s so bad about having a massive economy growing 10 percent in your neighborhood? With the U.S. consumer limping along, Japan needs all the demand for exports it can find.
Policy makers in Tokyo are officially out of reasons to delay the radical change Japan needs. To date, they have had more than their share of warnings: the collapse of the 1980s bubble economy, the “Lost Decade” of the 1990s, the Asian crisis in 1997, the U.S. credit meltdown, you name it. They just haven’t answered them, opting to add more debt and yen to punt big reforms forward.
Chinese Jolt
China is a jolt that Japan can’t manage around. Muddling through isn’t an option when the largest manufacturer and exporter is bearing down on you. Also, China is now the U.S.’s main creditor, reducing Japan’s leverage in Washington.
Amid all this China buzz, Japan is left to grapple with uncompetitive labor costs, a rapidly aging population and dwindling fiscal options. If Japanese officials intend to hit the snooze bar and sleep in for a few more years, S&P is standing by to give it a nudge.
S&P last week lowered the outlook on Japan’s AA sovereign credit rating to negative because of diminishing flexibility to cope with the world’s largest public debt. China is making the world quake because of its $2.4 trillion of currency reserves. Japan is spooking the world with its financial frailty.
Stability in China isn’t a given. The immediate risk is overheating. The longer-term problem, the one on which hedge- fund managers are fixated, is that today’s loans may turn sour tomorrow. China must get more serious about asset bubbles and narrowing the gap between rich and poor.
Filling the Void
Even moderate growth from China may help fill the void left by the highly leveraged U.S. consumer. Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama is mending ties with China, whose global influence is increasing as America’s declines. Japan still needs the U.S. for security reasons, yet economic realities are drawing its attention toward Asia.
One example of how China could be the catalyst that has eluded Japan is services. An obsession with manufacturing means Japan neglects its services industry, which is a far bigger part of the economy. China’s threat will focus attention where it needs to be: deregulating services and increasing productivity.
And don’t count Toyota and JAL out in the long run. Toyota seems to be taking a page from Johnson & Johnson’s playbook with its total recall. In 1982, J&J pulled millions of bottles of Extra Strength Tylenol from store shelves after someone in the Chicago area put cyanide in the capsules, resulting in seven deaths. The recall restored J&J’s reputation. We could very well be witnessing Toyota’s Tylenol moment.
JAL is now in the hands of electronics tycoon Kazuo Inamori after last month’s bankruptcy filing. His powerful political connections and maverick ways could give him the means to shake up Asia’s biggest carrier by sales in ways that none of his predecessors dared.
China’s great economic leap forward is in many ways a good- news story for corporate Japan. Officials such as Kan clearly hear the alarm bells in their midst and must act accordingly. With China’s arrival, sleeping on the job isn’t an option.
To contact the editor responsible for this column: James Greiff at +1-212-617-5801 or jgreiff@bloomberg.net
