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Showing posts with label Royal Bank of Scotland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Royal Bank of Scotland. Show all posts

Thursday 13 September 2012

Banks to sue Dubai Group's US$10 billion loans in debt pile

DUBAI: Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and two other banks have begun legal proceedings against an investment vehicle owned by Dubai's ruler, an unprecedented move to secure repayment after two years of unsuccessful debt talks.

RBS, along with German lender Commerzbank and South Africa's Standard Bank, had threatened legal action after walking away from negotiations over Dubai Group's US$10bil debt pile, sources said in July.

The banks began legal proceedings in a London court on Sept 6, breaking with the precedent in previous restructuring cases involving Dubai state-linked entities because of the opaque and untested insolvency system in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Given the complexities of the case, in particular the lack of precedent, the London filing threatens to extend debt talks well into the future, having dragged on since Dubai Group missed interest payments on two facilities in late 2010.

“Arbitration could be two years and we don't want to see the destruction of shareholder value just because these banks have thrown their toys in the corner,” said a source.

In a statement, RBS said it was forced to take action after several concessions offered to the group failed to secure a solution.

“We do, however, want to make clear that our preference was always to conclude an agreement without formal legal proceedings and we therefore remain open to such an outcome if an acceptable commercial resolution is forthcoming,” it said.

Such sentiment adds fuel to the belief that the legal action is more likely a negotiating tactic on behalf of the three banks all of which are unsecured creditors to secure a better deal from Dubai Group.

“They are unsecured and have nothing so they are doing it out of desperation or because they expect the Dubai government will bail out the group,” said one UAE-based banker.

The government walked away from debt talks in January, dashing any hope creditors had of state support.

Dubai Group, a unit of Dubai Holding which is the investment arm of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, was hard hit by the global financial crisis in 2008 due to excessive use of leverage in its investments and a sharp decline in the value of its portfolio companies.

Like a number of other state-linked entities in the emirate, it embarked on talks with creditors to restructure debt and extend maturities.

The London filing comes at a time when others on the restructuring are considering a proposal, put to the group before the summer, which would see all lenders extend their obligations to allow for Dubai Group's asset values to recover before they are sold.

Debt extensions range from 3 years for secured creditors up to 12 years for unsecured creditors. The sheer length of time is the main concern for the three banks because of the cost it would impose on unsecured lenders to extend cash for so long.

“Over 35 banks are working towards an agreement and a global term sheet is now being considered by bank credit committees, a number of which have indicated their support,” Dubai Group said in a separate statement. “We believe that we can reach a consensual agreement with our creditors.” - Reuters

Sunday 1 July 2012

After Barclays, the golden age of finance is dead

Retribution and regulation are sure to follow the Barclays scandal, but if the City is shackled, Britain as a whole will suffer

Everyone's a loser: punishing the City is inevitable following the Barclays scandal, but the whole of Britain could suffer Photo:

Just when you thought bankers could sink no lower in public regard, they’ve done it. News that Barclays has been found guilty of repeatedly falsifying the interbank rate – sometimes for the personal gain of traders, sometimes to make the bank itself seem more creditworthy than it really was – tops off another calamitous week in the seemingly never-ending litany of banking misdemeanours.

Coming hard on the heels of the chaos surrounding an IT breakdown at Royal Bank of Scotland, it is as if bankers are actively out to confirm their reputation for recklessness, incompetence and self-enriching disregard for the interests of customers and the wider economy.

At a time when the political and regulatory backlash against finance is already at fever pitch, much of it ill-thought out, counterproductive and economically harmful, there could scarcely have been a more spectacular own goal. And it doesn’t end there. Banking faces a whole new raft of separate regulatory strictures over the mis-selling of interest rate swaps to business customers.

A year ago, Bob Diamond, chief executive of Barclays, told a committee of MPs that it was time to put the crisis behind us, move on and stop apologising for the failings of the past. He should be so lucky. Not since the Thirties has finance been so much in the dock. On and on the combination of retribution and regulatory crackdown will go until banking is once again thought sufficiently imprisoned to be safe. European policymakers will delight in the ammunition they have been given to rein in the Anglo-Saxon bankers and make them subject to the rule of Brussels and Frankfurt.

Many have already said it, but it is one of those observations that bears constant repetition: in all my years as a financial journalist, it’s hard to recall a case quite as shameful as this – and I’ve certainly seen a few.

There is no industry in all commerce that relies as much on public trust and reputation for probity as banking. We have seen what happens when trust is lost: we get the legion of banking runs that lie at the heart of the financial crisis; people run for the hills and the economy grinds to a halt.

To have American regulators accuse Barclays of lies, deception and manipulation is an appalling indictment of one of the oldest and most respected names in British banking. It is like discovering that your local branch manager has routinely raided your hard-earned savings to finance his champagne lifestyle.

Entrusted with the public’s money, bankers have to be seen as whiter than white, pillars of their community and morally beyond reproach. All these old-fashioned virtues seem to have been lost in pursuit of the easy rewards of international finance. “My word is my bond” – once one of the sacred principles of City finance – has become reduced to a laughable parody of itself.

Now, it may well be unfair to single out Barclays. We already know that at least 20 other banks are under investigation for alleged manipulation of interbank interest rates, including most of the other UK high street banks. It could be that others are equally at fault. We know about Barclays only because in a practice that City lawyers sometimes call “rowing for the shore”, it has decided to abandon the flotilla of co-defendants and settle with regulators.

Downside of plea bargain

In so doing, it may have succeeded in winning both a lower fine and immunity from criminal prosecution, as a corporate entity at least, though the individuals involved may not escape. The downside of such plea bargains is that they involve admission of guilt. The regulator gets free rein to be as critical as it likes, while the mitigation of any defence there might have been is lost.

That these practices appear to have been endemic, not just at Barclays, but across a wide range of international banks, neither excuses nor explains what happened.

It’s interesting that when the fines were first announced on Wednesday, there was barely a flicker of recognition in the Barclays share price. The investigation has been known about for some time, the misdeeds complained of date back three or more years and are therefore water under the bridge, and many in the City judged Barclays to have got off relatively lightly.

But as the night wore on, the seriousness of the situation began to sink in. Bob Diamond, the Barclays chief executive, long despised by regulators found himself politically friendless, too.

As calls for his head mounted, the share price began to plunge. The key concern about Barclays has always been that it is a “black box” operation that only Bob himself properly understands. At a time of growing financial chaos, Barclays could be left leaderless, with the investment banking brains behind much of its recent profitability and successful navigation of the banking crisis thrown to the wolves.

“Bob is mistrusted in the City,” says one seasoned fund manager, “but he’s the glue that holds the whole thing together. Without him it might well disintegrate.”

What went wrong?
 
So what really went wrong here? The London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, and its companion, Euribor, are two of the most important benchmarks in finance. Essentially, they are an aggregate of the rates at which banks lend to one another. They are also used to help price a vast array of lending decisions and derivative products, including mortgages.

Yet even in financial markets, it is not widely understood how these benchmarks are arrived at. Unbeknown to senior managers at Barclays, some traders, starting in around 2005 and stretching through to 2009, began persuading those responsible for compiling Barclays’ input to distort the rate in a manner that made their own derivative positions more profitable, hence the excruciating series of incriminating emails cited by regulators.

This was bad enough, but if it had stopped there, the damage would probably have been containable. Even the best of internal controls cannot prevent the determined rotten apple. What has transformed this case into something much more serious is that at the height of the banking crisis “senior managers” themselves – it is still not clear exactly who – ordered that the Barclays submission be manipulated so as to make it look as if the bank was receiving more favourable funding terms than it was. Deceitful behaviour seemed to have become endemic, stretching from top to bottom.

To the extent that there is a defence for such blatant deceits, it runs something like this; everyone else was doing the same thing. Rival banks that were plainly in even worse shape than Barclays were making Libor submissions that appeared to show they were enjoying more favourable wholesale funding rates than Barclays was. On the “if you cannot beat them” principle, Barclays determined to join them.

If this version of events is correct, the whole escapade doesn’t look as bad as it first appears. It is hard to identify who exactly lost out as a result of these fictions. Since there was no interbank funding to speak of at the height of the crisis, it may not in any case have mattered very much.

Even so, it’s quite damning enough. There appears to be nothing bankers will stop at in order to feather their own nests. With tempers already at boiling point over egregious levels of pay and aggressive tax avoidance, the whole affair has now taken on a life of its own.

When the history books are written, this may be seen as a defining moment, the point at which public anger with the banks bubbled over into something much more seismic in its consequences than the general atmosphere of bank bashing we have seen to date. Despite the crisis, there has been a sense of back to business as normal for the City these past three years.

There have been few signs of behavioural change. But this may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Market and regulatory pressures are already laying waste to great tracts of previously highly lucrative banking activity. A major cull of investment banking jobs is expected over the next year, with once bumper bonuses and earnings much reduced on top. Retribution and punishingly restrictive levels of regulation won’t be far behind.

Those who believe that Britain has become too dependent on finance for its own good will no doubt welcome this humbling of an apparently out-of-control City, but they should be careful what they wish for.

Finance’s golden age may be drawing to a close; with no new industry or manufacturing renaissance coming up in the wings, it is not entirely clear what’s going to take its place as a source of British wealth, jobs and tax revenues. It is not just finance for which hard times lie ahead. - Telegraph

Saturday 30 June 2012

Four British banks to pay for scandal!

LONDON: Britain's four biggest banks have agreed to pay compensation to customers they misled about interest rate hedging products, following an investigation by Britain's financial regulator.


The Financial Services Authority (FSA) said yesterday it had reached an agreement with Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds and RBS to provide appropriate compensation following an investigation into the misselling of the products.

The FSA said it found evidence of “serious failings” by the banks and added: “We believe that this has resulted in a severe impact on a large number of these businesses.”

The finding by the FSA of misselling could lead to compensation claims ranging from many millions to several billion pounds from small companies which bought them.

It is the latest in a string of misselling cases that have plagued the financial services industry for over two decades. Banks are already set to pay upwards of £9bil (US$13.96bil) in compensation to customers for misselling loan insurance.

The news will compound problems for a sector that was hit hard on Thursday by news of a record US$450mil fine levied on Barclays for rigging interest rates.

The FSA said the banks had agreed to compensate directly those customers that brought the most complex products.

The products range in complexity from caps that fix an upper limit to the interest rate on a loan, through to complex derivatives known as “structured collars” which fixed interest rates with a bank but introduced a degree of interest rate speculation.

The banks have agreed to stop marketing “structured collars” to retail customers.

The size of the likely compensation was not disclosed but Lloyds issued a separate statement saying it did not expect the financial impact from the settlement to be material. - Reuters

Thursday 21 June 2012

Moody's downgrades 15 major banks: Citigroup, HSBC ...

Citigroup and HSBC were among the banks downgraded


The credit ratings agency Moody's has downgraded 15 banks and financial institutions.

UK banks downgraded include Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and HSBC.

In the US, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are among those marked down.

BBC business editor Robert Peston reported on Tuesday that the downgrades were coming and said that banks were concerned as it may make it harder for them to borrow money commercially.

"All of the banks affected by today's actions have significant exposure to the volatility and risk of outsized losses inherent to capital markets activities," Moody's global banking managing director Greg Bauer said in the agency's statement.

The other institutions that have been downgraded are Credit Suisse, UBS, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Societe Generale, Deutsche Bank, Royal Bank of Canada and Morgan Stanley.

Moody's said it recognised, "the clear intent of governments around the world to reduce support for creditors", but added that they had not yet put the frameworks in place that would allow them to let banks fail.

Some of the banks were put on negative outlook, which is a warning that they could be downgraded again later, on the basis that governments may eventually manage to withdraw their support.

“Start Quote

The most interesting thing about the Moody's analysis is that it, in effect, creates three new categories of global banks, the banking equivalent of the Premier League, the Championship and League One”
In a statement, RBS responded to its downgrade saying: "The group disagrees with Moody's ratings change which the group feels is backward-looking and does not give adequate credit for the substantial improvements the group has made to its balance sheet, funding and risk profile."

The BBC's Scotland business editor Douglas Fraser tweeted: "Cost of RBS downgrade by Moody's: having to post an estimated extra £9bn in collateral for its debts."

Of the banks downgraded, four were cut by one notch on Moody's ranking scale, 10 by two notches and one, Credit Suisse, by three notches.

"The biggest surprise is the three-notch downgrade of Credit Suisse, which no one was looking for," said Mark Grant, managing director of Southwest Securities.

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FDIC: Failed Bank List

Friday 24 February 2012

Lloyds, Britain’s biggest mortgage lender plunges to £3.5bn loss for 2011


Rising Funding Costs Imperil Profit in 2011

Part-nationalised Lloyds Banking Group said today that it is "in a significantly stronger position than it was 12 months ago" despite unveiling total losses of £3.5 billion for last year.The losses, which compare with a £281 million profit the previous year and are driven by a £3.5 billion hit to tackle the payment protection insurance scandal, are nearly twice the size of those at fellow state-backed bank Royal Bank of Scotland.

 http://www.independent.ie/video/video-world-news/lloyds-makes-35bn-loss-3030959.html
By  Gavin Finch in London at gfinch@bloomberg.net
Antonio Horta-Osorio - Lloyds
Lloyds chief executive António Horta-Osório is cutting 15,000 jobs, on top of the 30,000 already axed. Photograph: Reuters

Lloyds Chief Executive Officer Eric Daniels


Former Chief Executive Officer Eric Daniels said, “We achieved a step change in our financial performance despite modest economic growth.” Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Britain’s biggest mortgage lender, tumbled in London trading as the bank said rising funding costs will squeeze profit margins in 2011.

The net interest margin, the difference between what the bank pays for funds and what it charges for loans, will be unchanged in 2011, Lloyds said in a statement today. The lender is replacing government support with costlier wholesale funding.

“The numbers and outlook statement from Lloyds are a bit of a horror show,” said Ian Gordon, an analyst at Exane BNP Paribas SA in London with a “neutral” rating on the stock. “Lloyds’s second-half performance has been very weak.”

Analysts including Gordon and John-Paul Crutchley at UBS AG said they may cut estimates for 2011 pretax profit by more than 2 billion pounds ($3.2 billion), about a third. Chief Executive Officer Eric Daniels, who will be succeeded by Antonio Horta- Osorio next week, has been trying to wean Lloyds off state aid after the takeover of HBOS Plc in 2008 led to 13 billion pounds of losses and left the taxpayer owning 41 percent of the lender.

The shares tumbled 4.5 percent to 62.85 pence at the close in London, the biggest decline in more than three months.

“The knee-jerk reaction could be some disappointment,” said Cormac Leech, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity Ltd. in London who has a “buy” rating on the stock. “The biggest negative is that the margin will stay flat in 2011.”

Net Interest Margin

Lloyds posted a full-year net loss of 320 million pounds in 2010, compared with a 2.83 billion-pound profit in 2009, the bank said in the statement. Earnings the previous year were buoyed by an 11.1 billion-pound accounting gain on the HBOS purchase. Pretax profit slumped 62 percent to 609 million pounds in the second half of 2010 from the first half.

The net interest margin rose to 2.1 percent from 1.8 percent in 2009. Lloyds cut its reliance on government aid to 96.6 billion pounds in 2010 from 157.2 billion pounds in 2009.

The shares, the second-best performing of the U.K.’s five biggest lenders last year, may struggle to repeat that in 2011 as funding costs and Irish loan losses climb and a government commission weighs whether to break Lloyds up, analysts said. The Independent Banking Commission, which is reviewing competition in the financial services industry, will report in September. Lloyds said today it also expects a “slow recovery over the next couple of years” for the British economy.

“Another extremely challenging year lies ahead,” Gordon said. “There are still very significant bumps in the road.”

Halifax, Oil Losses

Lloyds posted its first full-year pretax profit since the credit crisis today. Profit was 2.2 billion pounds compared with a loss of 6.3 billion pounds in 2009. That beat the 2 billion- pound median profit estimated by 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Provisions fell 45 percent to 13.2 billion pounds in 2010 from 24 billion pounds in 2009.

Profit was crimped by a 4.3 billion-pound charge for bad loans in Ireland and a 365 million-pound loss on the sale of two deepwater oil drilling rig businesses to Seadrill Ltd. The bank also made a 500 million-pound provision to cover payments it’s making to Halifax mortgage clients because the terms of their loans were unclear.

Lloyds follows Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in posting an increase in losses from the implosion of Ireland’s decade- long real estate boom. Edinburgh-based RBS posted a full-year loss of 1.1 billion pounds yesterday, missing analyst estimates as Irish loan losses almost doubled.

“We expect to see further reductions in impairment losses in 2011 and beyond,” Lloyds said in the statement.

‘Radical’ Intervention

Pretax profit at Lloyds’s consumer banking unit rose to 4.7 billion pounds from 1.4 billion pounds. Profit was bolstered as customers reverted to standard variable rate mortgages, which generate more income than fixed-rate loans, Daniels, 59, said on a call to journalists today.

“The stand-out performance in the retail division will undoubtedly raise eyebrows, adding fuel to the fire of those that view the banking behemoth as an anti-competitive force,” said Paul Mumford, a fund manager at Cavendish Asset Management in London. “Increased profits will be met by increased enthusiasm for radical regulatory intervention.”

Daniels, who has overseen a 76 percent plunge in Lloyds share price since he took over as CEO in 2003, said he was “very pleased’ with his tenure at the bank. Daniels told the BBC Radio 4 Today Programme that he hasn’t decided whether to accept his 1.45 million-pound bonus for 2010 even though the board has made an award.

The bank’s core Tier 1 capital ratio, which measures financial strength, rose to 10.2 percent from 8.1 percent as risk-weighted assets declined by 18 percent to 406.4 billion pounds. Lloyds said it expects to meet its target to cut assets by about 100 billion pounds over the next three years.

“We achieved a step change in our financial performance despite modest economic growth,” Daniels said. “While the significant decrease in impairments was a key driver in our return to profitability, we also saw a good performance in the core business.”

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RBS, biggest British stated-owned bank losses of £3.5bn !

Thursday 23 February 2012

RBS, biggest British stated-owned bank losses of £3.5bn !

Bailed out: Royal Bank of Scotland is set to announce losses of £3.5bn on Friday. It is worth £26bn - and the Government paid £45.5bn
Bailed out: Royal Bank of Scotland is set to announce losses of £3.5bn on Friday. It is worth £26bn - and the Government paid £45.5bn


(Bloomberg) -- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Britain's biggest government-owned lender, posted a wider full- year loss than analysts estimated after writing down Greek debt and compensating customers who were improperly sold insurance.

The net loss for 2011 was 2 billion pounds ($3.1 billion) compared with 1.1 billion pounds a year earlier, the U.K.'s second-largest bank by assets said in a statement today. That was worse than the 1.1 billion-pound median estimate of 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.



The government was forced to rescue RBS at the height of the financial crisis, injecting 45.5 billion pounds of taxpayer money into the lender, making it the costliest bailout of any bank. Chief Executive Officer Stephen Hester, 51, has shrunk the bank's assets by more than 600 billion pounds to 1.66 billion pounds and cut more than 35,000 jobs since he took over from Fred Goodwin in 2007. Hester said earlier this month that restructuring RBS was equivalent to defusing "the biggest time bomb in history."
The company took a sovereign-debt impairment of 1.1 billion pounds, writing off Greek government debt as part of a European Union agreement.

RBS's loss would have been narrower if it hadn't had to set aside 950 million pounds to compensate U.K. customers who were improperly sold personal-loan insurance.

RBS's results were also affected by rising borrowing costs as the bank weans itself off low-interest government loans and takes on costlier funding in wholesale markets. The bank opted in December to go the European Central Bank for an emergency 5 billion euro loan as its own costs of borrowing reached an unsustainable level, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The government was forced to rescue RBS at the height of the financial crisis, injecting 45.5 billion pounds of taxpayer money into the lender, making it the costliest bailout of any bank in the world.

--Editors: Keith Campbell, Francis Harris.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2105218/RBS-banks-posts-losses-2bn-casino-bankers-enjoy-390m-bonus-pot.html#ixzz1nGtFy7DQ

Wednesday 29 June 2011

Tsunami of repossessions, home prices declined in UK & US !





Bank chief warns of wave of home repossessions if rates rise

UKAR chief presiding over £80bn of bailed-out mortgages says 'tough love' would be fairer on those struggling with payments
  • Jill Treanor  guardian.co.ukHouses
UKAR chief Richard Banks has warned that mass home repossessions could follow any interest rate rise Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

Britain is facing a 'tsunami' of house repossessions as soon as interest rates start to rise, one of the country's leading bankers has warned.

Richard Banks, the chief executive of UK Asset Resolution (UKAR), the body that runs the £80bn of mortgages bailed out by the taxpayer during the banking crisis, also said in an interview with the Guardian that the Labour government's pleas at the start of the crisis for lenders to keep families in their homes was forcing some homeowners further into debt.

In a warning that the industry may have been too lenient with some of its customers, he said he believed a policy of "tough love" would be fairer to people facing long-term difficulty in keeping up payments on loans taken out when house prices were at their peak and personal incomes on the rise.

His warning came the day after the international bank regulator said the Bank of England, which has kept rates at 0.5% for more than two years, would have to raise rates shortly to curb inflation.

The Bank of International Settlements said the policy of the Bank of England, whose rate-setting committee is split over whether or not to increase borrowing costs, was "unsustainable".

With 750,000 customers, UK Asset Resolution, set up to run the nationalised mortgages of Bradford & Bingley and parts of Northern Rock, is the country's fifth largest mortgage lender. But 23,000 of those mortgage holders are more than six months behind with payments and Banks admitted the projections for the number of people falling behind on payments could get "scary" if lenders did nothing to prepare for higher rates.

"You can see if you don't do something about it, you can see a tsunami," he said. "If you don't get into the hills you could get drowned by this. If you don't manage this properly it could get very messy."

He regards it is an industry-wide problem, albeit one that might be concentrated at UKAR as its customers include buy-to-let landlords and so-called self-certified borrowers – those without salaried income. UKAR, through three calls centres in Crossflatts, West Yorkshire, Gosforth, Newcastle, and Doxford, Sunderland, has begun cold-calling customers it believes are at risk of falling behind on payments in an attempt to keep their mortgage payments on schedule.

The bank is also trying to tackle customers behind with payments for six months or more and at risk of repossession.

His concern about a surge in repossessions is partly the result of moves by the industry early in the 2008 crisis to grant so-called forbearance to help customers stay in homes by, for example, reducing monthly interest payments. "We as an industry, as a kneejerk reaction in the emergence of the crisis, and because the government asked us to be forbearing to customers in the hope it would all go away, we have been too lenient with some customers.

"It's a tough love approach," he said. "It's treating customers fairly, not nicely, because if you can't afford your mortgage you are only increasing your indebtedness. If we allow you to increase your indebtedness, that's not really fair to you."

This month the Council of Mortgage Lenders forecast a rise in repossessions from 40,000 this year to 45,000 next. This figure would still remain well below the 75,500 peak of 1991. The remarks by Banks follow a warning last week from the new regulator set up to spot financial risks in the system – the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) inside the Bank of Englandthat warned banks may be providing a "misleading picture of their financial health" if they were not making big enough provisions for borrowers in difficulty.

Forbearance has been brought into play in up to 12% of mortgages, the FPC said.

It also noted that the most "vulnerable" households were concentrated in a few banks. It did not scrutinise UKAR but noted that the two other bailed-out banks, Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland, had the largest exposure to customers whose mortgages were bigger than their value of their homes.

Last month, the Financial Services Authority issued a guide to handling forbearance in which it warned: "Arrears and forbearance support provided with due care by firms has a beneficial impact for both the firm and the customer … However, where such support is provided without due care or any knowledge or understanding of the impacts, it has potentially adverse implications for the customer, for the firm's understanding of the risks inherent within its lending book, and in turn for the regulators and the market."

House prices down in England and Wales

LONDON: House prices in England and Wales have edged lower this month to show their biggest annual fall since October 2009, a monthly survey from property data company Hometrack showed on Monday.
Average house prices dropped by 0.1% in June, continuing a pattern of modest falls so far this year and taking the year-on-year decline to 3.9%.

Other house price surveys have shown similar price falls over the past 12 months. Prices dropped by around 20% during the financial crisis, but partly recovered in early 2010.
Hometrack's director of research Richard Donnell said that the property market had been less weak so far this year than he had expected.

A general view of houses in Grange Villa, England. — AP
 
“Low transaction volumes, low mortgage rates and forbearance by lenders limiting the number of forced sales have all played their part. While average prices have slipped back by 1%, sales volumes have increased off the back of higher demand and greater realism over achievable prices,” he said.

House prices are under pressure from slow wage growth and lenders' preference for much higher mortgage deposits than before the financial crisis.

Hometrack's data is based on a monthly survey of estate agents and surveyors, asking for average achievable prices for different categories of property. - Reuters


Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Probably Declined in April From Year Earlier

Home Prices in U.S. Cities Fell 4% in April from Year Ago
Home prices probably decreased in April, showing the housing market remains an obstacle for the U.S. recovery, economists said before a report today.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 4 percent from April 2010, the biggest year-over-year drop since November 2009, according to the median forecast of 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Other data may show consumer confidence held near a six-month low.

A backlog of foreclosures and falling sales indicate prices may decline further, discouraging builders from taking on new projects. The drop in property values and a jobless rate hovering around 9 percent are holding back consumer sentiment and spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy.


“Home prices remain incredibly bogged down by foreclosures and weak demand,” said Sean Incremona, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York. “The picture is unlikely to change much this year. Declining home prices and high unemployment are bad for confidence.”

The S&P/Case-Shiller index, based on a three-month average, is due at 9 a.m. New York time. Survey estimates ranged from declines of 4.9 percent to 3.5 percent. Values fell 3.6 percent in the 12 months to March.

The New York-based Conference Board’s consumer confidence gauge, due at 10 a.m., rose to 61 from 60.8 in May, according to the Bloomberg survey median. Estimates ranged from 55 to 66.7.

Fuel Costs

Some of the improvement probably reflects a drop in fuel costs. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline fell to $3.57 on June 26, down from a May 4 price of $3.99 that was the highest in almost three years, according to AAA, the nation’s largest auto club.

The projected rise in confidence contrasts with other surveys in which Americans’ moods dimmed. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index dropped in the week ended June 19, the first decline in five weeks, and the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan sentiment gauge fell more than forecast this month.

The Case-Shiller report may show home prices fell 0.2 percent in April from the prior month after adjusting for seasonal variations, the 10th straight decrease, according to the Bloomberg survey.

The year-over-year gauges provide better indications of trends in prices, the group has said. The panel includes Karl Case and Robert Shiller, the economists who created the index.

Shiller told a conference in New York this month that a further decline in property values of 10 percent to 25 percent in the next five years “wouldn’t surprise me at all.”

Fewer Sales

Reports earlier this month showed the housing market is yet to gain momentum. Sales of previously owned homes, which comprise about 94 percent of the market, were down 3.8 percent last month from April, the National Association of Realtors said.

Purchases of new houses dropped 2.1 percent in May, the first decline in three months, according to Commerce Department data. Competition from foreclosed homes is hurting demand for newly built dwellings.

The 1.8 million-unit inventory of distressed homes nationwide that may reach the market would take about three years to sell at the current pace, Daren Blomquist, communications manager at RealtyTrac Inc., said this month.

As house prices decline, owners feel less wealthy and home equity shrinks, making borrowing more difficult.

The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Homebuilding index lost 4.4 percent as of June 27 from the end of April, less than a 6.1 percent drop in the broader S&P 500 gauge, which was weighed down largely by concern about the European debt crisis.

Builder Outlook

Some developers expect demand to stabilize following a poor selling season. Lennar Corp. (LEN), the third-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, last week said second-quarter sales fell from a year earlier and home orders were little changed, while the average price climbed. The 2010 orders were boosted by a federal tax credit for homebuyers that required contracts be signed by April 30.

“While it’s now well documented that the expected spring selling season of 2011 simply did not materialize, it is beginning to feel like the worst days of the housing market are getting behind us,” Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said during a conference call with analysts on June 23.
Bloomberg Survey

================================================================
Case Shiller Cons. Conf
MOM% YOY% Index
================================================================

Date of Release 06/28 06/28 06/28
Observation Period April April June
----------------------------------------------------------------
Median -0.2% -4.0% 61.0
Average -0.2% -4.0% 61.0
High Forecast 0.4% -3.5% 66.7
Low Forecast -0.5% -4.9% 55.0
Number of Participants 17 30 70
Previous -0.2% -3.6% 60.8
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4CAST Ltd. --- -4.1% 61.5
ABN Amro Inc. -0.1% --- 61.0
Action Economics --- --- 63.0
Aletti Gestielle SGR --- --- 60.0
Ameriprise Financial Inc --- --- 61.5
Banesto --- -4.1% 61.7
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi --- --- 59.0
Bantleon Bank AG --- --- 60.0
Bayerische Landesbank --- -4.0% 62.0
BBVA --- -3.9% 60.8
BMO Capital Markets --- -4.4% 62.0
BNP Paribas --- --- 58.0
BofA Merrill Lynch Resear --- -3.9% 61.0
Briefing.com --- -3.8% 59.0
Capital Economics -0.4% -4.1% 65.0
CIBC World Markets --- -4.2% 62.5
Citi --- --- 61.0
Commerzbank AG --- -4.0% 60.0
Credit Agricole CIB --- --- 62.0
Credit Suisse --- -3.8% 55.0
Daiwa Securities America --- --- 62.0
DekaBank --- --- 61.5
Desjardins Group --- -3.9% 61.0
Deutsche Bank Securities --- --- 62.0
Exane --- --- 61.5
Fact & Opinion Economics --- -3.5% 59.0
First Trust Advisors --- --- 59.9
FTN Financial --- --- 60.0
Helaba --- --- 60.0
HSBC Markets -0.2% -3.9% 60.0
Hugh Johnson Advisors --- --- 60.5
IDEAglobal --- -4.0% 60.0
IHS Global Insight --- -3.9% 61.0
Informa Global Markets --- --- 61.0
ING Financial Markets -0.2% -3.9% 63.0
Insight Economics --- -3.9% 59.0
Intesa-SanPaulo --- --- 63.0
J.P. Morgan Chase -0.1% -3.8% 60.5
Janney Montgomery Scott L -0.3% -4.8% 62.0
Jefferies & Co. --- --- 62.0
Landesbank Berlin --- --- 58.0
Manulife Asset Management --- --- 61.0
Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc --- --- 62.5
MF Global -0.5% -4.2% 60.5
Moody’s Analytics --- --- 59.0
Morgan Stanley & Co. --- --- 64.0
Natixis --- -4.0% 61.0
Nomura Securities Intl. --- -3.9% 59.8
Nord/LB --- --- 60.0
Parthenon Group -0.4% --- 59.7
Pierpont Securities LLC --- --- 64.0
PineBridge Investments 0.4% --- 61.5
Raiffeisenbank Internatio --- --- 62.0
RBC Capital Markets --- --- 62.0
RBS Securities Inc. --- --- 59.5
Scotia Capital --- --- 59.0
SMBC Nikko Securities -0.1% -3.8% 63.0
Societe Generale -0.2% --- 66.7
Standard Chartered -0.3% -4.8% 61.0
State Street Global Marke 0.1% -3.6% 60.1
Stone & McCarthy Research --- --- 62.5
TD Securities -0.5% --- 60.0
UBS -0.2% -3.9% 62.0
UniCredit Research --- -4.0% 61.0
Union Investment --- --- 61.8
University of Maryland -0.4% -4.1% 60.0
Wells Fargo & Co. --- --- 59.3
WestLB AG --- -4.9% 60.5
Westpac Banking Co. --- --- 60.5
Wrightson ICAP 0.0% --- 63.0
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To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net